Week 1 was a mixed bag: Josh Allen, good. Caleb Williams, not.

I'll never hit 100% in an article, but more often than not last week's piece had the right perspective, and that's what I'm hoping for.

In the sports speculation markets, a bettor can be highly profitable with a win rate as low as 54%. (By the way, subscribe to our free Betting Life Newsletter and check out our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker for daily guidance, best bets, and more.)

I'm not trying to be perfect. I'm trying to be consistently better than 50/50. In the long run, that will probably be good enough.

Onto Week 2.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 2

Here are my preliminary Week 2 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination)…

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in DFS.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday evening), any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Rankings Accuracy: Last year I was No. 18 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. That was my sixth season with a top-20 finish.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 10, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 QBs

Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts) at Green Bay Packers

  • Colts: -3
  • O/U: 41
  • TT: 22

Richardson had a hit-and-miss performance last week against the Texans. On the one hand, he completed just 47.4% of his passes, which is in keeping with the 59.5% mark he had last year and the 54.7% he had the year before that in his final college season at Florida.

Richardson is simply not an accurate passer, and his imprecision was on display in Week 1.

On the other hand … the dude still passed for 212 yards and two TDs to one INT, giving him a studly 10.9 AY/A to go alongside his floor-elevating 6-56-1 rushing.

Put it all together, and he was the QB4 on the week with 27.1 fantasy points. He's only five games into his NFL career, but he really might be the next Josh Allen or Cam Newton.

The Packers allowed 278 yards and two TDs passing last week to Jalen Hurts, and last year were No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (48.7%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at Detroit Lions

  • Buccaneers: +7
  • O/U: 51.5
  • TT: 22.25

Mayfield isn't as good as the 289-yard, 4-TD passing performance he had on Sunday. Most weeks, he won't finish as the QB2 with 29.7 fantasy points plus an NFL-best 12.3 AY/A. It certainly helps that he was facing the Commanders.

But he has another good matchup this week against the Lions, who are yet to cover themselves in glory: Last week, they yielded 317 yards passing to Matthew Stafford, and last season they were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.0).

With a rebuilt secondary—not one of their starting corners was with the team last year, and Brian Branch has shifted from slot to safety—the Lions could struggle against the pass for at least another week.

The Dropback

Jalen Hurts (Eagles -6.5, TT: 26.75) vs. Falcons: Hurts was No. 2 last year with 0.71 fantasy points per dropback. 

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs -6, TT: 26.75) vs. Bengals: The Chiefs have a three-day rest advantage, they're at home for their second straight game, and Mahomes in Weeks 1-4 is 16-9 ATS (25.0% ROI) and 21-4 ML (35.0% ROI, per Action Network).

Jayden Daniels (Commanders -1.5, TT: 22.5) vs. Giants: Last week Daniels led all QBs with a Lamar Jackson-like 36% designed rush rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report). I am maximally invested with bets on Daniels to win OROY, to pass for over 3,025.5 yards, and to rush for over 525.5 yards. 

Matthew Stafford (Rams +1, TT: 24) at Cardinals: HC Sean McVay is 14-7-1 ATS (28.6%) in the first three weeks, 24-14-3 ATS (20.9% ROI) off a loss, 17-11-2 ATS (16.8% ROI) as a road underdog, and 12-2-1 ATS (62.6% ROI) against the Cardinals, who just forfeited a week-high 31.2 fantasy points to Josh Allen last week and last year were No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (19.7%, per FTN).

Daniel Jones (Giants +1.5, TT: 21) at Commanders: Last year, the Commanders were No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.5), and Giants HC Brian Daboll is 13-5 ATS (38.2% ROI) off a loss and 19-11-1 ATS (20.5% ROI) as an underdog.

Justin Herbert (Chargers -6.5, TT: 22.75) at Panthers: Last week, the Panthers allowed a league-high 82.6% completion rate to Derek Carr … not to mention 3 TDs.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 RBs

Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Chiefs: -6
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 26.75

With Jerick McKinnon (free agent) gone and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (mental health, NFI) unavailable, Pacheco dominated the Chiefs backfield in Week 1, converting an 80% snap rate, 79% rush share, and 71% route rate into a workmanlike 78 yards and a TD on 15 carries and three targets against a tough Ravens defense.

He has a much easier matchup this week against the Bengals, who lost run-stuffing DT DJ Reader this offseason and weren't even all that good with him in 2023, ranking No. 28 in defensive rush DVOA (1.4%).

In his one game last year against the Bengals, Pacheco had perhaps his best performance of the campaign with 165 yards and a TD on 18 carries, seven targets, and a season-high 93% snap rate.

Pacheco could crush as a big home favorite with three extra days of rest.

J.K. Dobbins (Los Angeles Chargers) at Carolina Panthers

  • Chargers: -6.5
  • O/U: 39
  • TT: 22.75

Dobbins is no longer the explosive player he was at Ohio State and in the first few years of his NFL career—but he still has enough juice to break long runs when given an open lane and to turn typical plays into chunk gains, as he showed in Week 1 with his 139 yards and a TD on 10 carries and three targets.

Although he still is splitting work with Gus Edwards (41% snap rate, 44% rush rate), Dobbins clearly enters Week 2 with the hot hand and encouragingly saw 100% of the SDD snaps and 85% of the LDD snaps.

With HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, the Chargers will almost certainly continue to lean on the ground game, especially as sizable road favorites against the Panthers, who allowed 47 points and 180 yards rushing last week and will likely be without DT Derrick Brown (knee). 

Last year, the Panthers were No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.024) and defensive rush DVOA (5.7%).

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) at Seattle Seahawks

  • Patriots: +3
  • O/U: 38
  • TT: 17.5

Last year, Stevenson missed the final five games with a high-ankle sprain, he lost a significant amount of backfield work to veteran RB Ezekiel Elliott, and he found himself trapped in an incompetent offense "led" by QBs Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe.

But last week Stevenson seemed to regain his form from 2022, when he broke out with 1,461 yards and 6 TDs on 210 carries and 88 targets. As road dogs of more than a TD, the Patriots rode Stevenson to a 16-10 victory with 126 yards and a TD on 25 carries and 3 targets.

It's not hard to imagine the Patriots utilizing a similar strategy against the Seahawks, who last year were No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.009). They looked better last week under new defensive HC Mike Macdonald, holding the Broncos to just 99 yards rushing, but I want to see the Seahawks replicate that effort against Stevenson before I declare them cured of all their run-stopping ailments.

The Checkdown

Bijan Robinson (Falcons +6.5, TT: 20.25) at Eagles: Last week Robinson had a dominant 9.3 Utilization Score, which he leveraged into 111 scrimmage yards. The Eagles last year were No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (-0.020).

Saquon Barkley (Eagles -6.5, TT: 26.75) vs. Falcons: Barkley led all NFL players last week with 32.2 fantasy points, and he could have a repeat primetime performance on Monday Night Football as a home favorite of almost a TD.

Kyren Williams (Rams +1, TT: 24) at Cardinals: Despite enduring the ignominy of serving as the team's punt returner, Williams still controlled the Rams backfield with 18 carries and 3 targets. He had 362 yards and 3 touchdowns in two games last year against the Cardinals, who were No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.5).

De'Von Achane (Dolphins -2.5, TT: 25.75) vs. Bills: Achane (ankle) missed Tuesday practice with an injury designation, but I'm optimistic that he'll play on Thursday Night Football. Last week he had 100 yards and a TD on 10 carries and 7 targets. If Achane is out, Jaylen Wright might be a flex candidate.

Joe Mixon (Texans -6.5, TT: 26) vs. Bears: In his Texans debut last week, Mixon had 178 yards and a TD on 30 carries and 3 targets on the road … and now he's at home as a favorite. 

Jordan Mason (49ers -6, TT: 25.75) at Vikings: As an injury fill-in for starter Christian McCaffrey (calf, Achilles), Mason impressed with 152 yards and a TD on 28 carries and a target on Monday Night Football, and McCaffrey could miss Week 2 as well. Mason is a top waiver priority.

Josh Jacobs (Packers +3, TT: 19) vs. Colts: Jacobs had 104 yards and a TD last week, he'll be the focal point of the offense this week without QB Jordan Love (knee), the Packers at home are 28-16 ATS (22.1% ROI) with HC Matt LaFleur, and the Colts last year were No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.0).

Aaron Jones (Vikings +6, TT: 19.75) vs. 49ers: Jones looked like his typical efficient self last week in his Vikings debut with 109 yards and a TD on 14 carries and two targets. Even as a dog, he should stay involved in the offense because of his three-down ability, and the 49ers last season were No. 30 in defensive rush SR (42.3%).

Brian Robinson (Commanders -1.5, TT: 22.5) vs. Giants: Robinson had a team-high 89 scrimmage yards on 12 carries and four targets last week, and although he scored a TD he just missed out on two more TDs by being tackled at the one-yard line. Last year the Giants were No. 29 in defensive rush DVOA (1.9%).

David Montgomery (Lions -7, TT: 29.25) vs. Buccaneers: In 2023, Montgomery had a league-high 27 carries inside the five-yard line. He scored a game-winning TD in overtime last week and has a good chance to find the endzone again, given that the Lions have a week-high implied point total.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 WRs

Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams) at Arizona Cardinals

  • Rams: +1
  • O/U: 49
  • TT: 24

With WR Puka Nacua (knee, IR) leaving Sunday Night Football early, Kupp turned into a total volume hog, amassing a league-high 21 targets, which he leveraged into 14-110-1 receiving, to which he added 2-10-1 rushing.

It's not accurate to say that this was a return to form for Kupp. At 31 years old, he's not the player he was in his 2021 Offensive Player of the Year campaign, when he balled out with a triple-crown 145-1,947-16 receiving season. In 2021, he averaged 10.2 yards per target. Last night, he had an inefficient 5.2.

Still, volume matters most, and Kupp at least looked a little like his younger self with his smooth route running. He's still Kupp enough to do damage as the team's undisputed top pass catcher, and that's once again what he is now that Nacua is out for at least the next 4 games.

The Cardinals last year were No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.0%), and Kupp had 7-148-1 receiving on nine targets in his one fully healthy 2023 game against them.

He should dominate inexperienced slot CB Garrett Williams, who has just 256 coverage snaps in his career (per PFF).  

Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at Detroit Lions

  • Buccaneers: +7
  • O/U: 51.5
  • TT: 22.25

Five years ago—before it was cool to say that Evans was a future Hall of Famer—I made the forward-looking Canton case for the Bucs WR. All he has done since then is prove me right, and that continued last week with an efficient 5-61-2 receiving on six targets in a 37-20 blowout win.

In each of his first 10 seasons, Evans has had 1,000 yards receiving. Last year, he had an NFL-high 13 TDs through the air. Even at 31 years old, Evans is a monster.

You know what monsters do? They terrorize children—and Lions CB Terrion Arnold is a child by NFL standards. As a first-rounder, he might develop into a shutdown corner one day … but right now he's a 21-year-old rookie making just his second start, and based on where they tend to line up Evans might run half of his routes against him.

Advantage: Evans—and it's not as if the rest of the secondary is good either. Last year, the Lions were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (33.2).

Malik Nabers (New York Giants) at Washington Commanders

  • Giants: +1.5
  • O/U: 43.5
  • TT: 21

There's nothing sexy about a 5-66-0 receiving stat line—but it's an acceptable performance for a rookie in his NFL debut, especially when he's only 21 years old, he has an efficient 9.4 yards per target, and his QB passes for just 186 yards. Placed in its proper context, Nabers' first professional game was a success: The guy probably has what it takes to be the top pass catcher in an NFL offense.

Granted, last week it looked as if the Giants don't actually have an NFL offense—but that might change this week against the Commanders, who last year were No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.199), No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (40.9%), and No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+8.3).

And then in Week 1 they allowed an NFL-high 51.0 fantasy points to WRs.

The matchup for Nabers doesn't get any better than this.

DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Atlanta Falcons

  • Eagles: -6.5
  • O/U: 47
  • TT: 26.75

As long as teammate A.J. Brown is healthy and with the Eagles, Smith seems destined to be his team's perpetual WR2—but he's one of the best WR2s in the league: Since his 2021 rookie season, Smith has been productive (3,178 yards receiving) and efficient (9.0 yards per target).

And he's always on the field. Last year, he had a league-high 98% route rate.

Despite playing alongside Brown, he has averaged 124 targets over the past two seasons, and he could see more this year. In Week 1, he had a healthy eight targets, which he turned into 7-84-0 receiving. 

I expect Brown to match up most with CB A.J. Terrell, who has often been used in shadow coverage throughout his career. With Terrell on Brown, Smith could see more volume than usual, and I like his matchup against CBs Mike Hughes and Dee Alford, neither of whom has ever had a season-long PFF coverage grade in the mid-70s.

The Falcons last year were No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (21.9%).

The Deep Route

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins -2.5, TT: 25.75) vs. Bills: Hill has back-to-back seasons with 1,700 yards or more receiving, he had 7-130-1 on 12 targets last week, and he has averaged 10 targets across his five games against the Bills since joining the Dolphins in 2022.

Garrett Wilson (Jets -3.5, TT: 22) at Titans: Wison won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022, he led the league with a 45% share of air yards in 2023, and he had a team-best 11 targets on Monday Night Football.

Justin Jefferson (Vikings +6, TT: 19.75) vs. 49ers: Jefferson impressed last season with 68-1,074-5 receiving in 10 games while playing half the year with backup passers, and then in Week 1 with QB Sam Darnold he had an efficient 4-59-1 on six targets in a comfortable 28-6 win. Jefferson is just fine without former QB Kirk Cousins.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs -6, TT: 26.75) vs. Bengals: Rice led the Chiefs in Week 1 with 7-103-0 receiving on 9 targets, and he had 5-127-0 on six targets in his one game against the Bengals last year, when they were No. 5 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+4.2).

Drake London (Falcons +6.5, TT: 20.25) at Eagles: Last year the Eagles were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (36.7), and last week they were No. 3 (46.9).

Chris Godwin (Buccaneers +7, TT: 22.25) at Lions: The Lions last season were No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.109), and CB Amik Robertson could struggle given that he has played most of his career on the perimeter and is transitioning to a full-time slot role.

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs -6, TT: 26.75) vs. Bengals: In Week 1, he flashed his Tyreek Hill-ish upside with 68 yards and 2 TDs on just 3 targets and 1 carry. Eventually he'll get more opportunities, and last year the Bengals were No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against WR2s (29.7%).

Stefon Diggs (Texans -6.5, TT: 26) vs. Bears: Do you remember in 2018 when Antonio Brown was no longer the Steelers’ WR1 but the team fed him red-zone and end-zone targets so that he could save face with his league-high 15 TDs??? Just asking for no particular reason…

Terry McLaurin (Commanders -1.5, TT: 22.5) vs. Giants: The bad news is that McLaurin had just 4 targets last week. The good news is that no one else on the team had more. Better days are ahead, and the Giants last year were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.8).

Jameson Williams (Lions -7, TT: 29.25) vs. Buccaneers: Dating back to last year's playoffs, Williams has had his two highest marks in snap rate (72%, 85%)—and in those games he has 201 yards and 3 TDs on 12 targets and 2 carries. He probably isn't … but he might be the best WR on the Lions.

Rashid Shaheed (Saints +6.5, TT: 19.75) at Cowboys: With his ability to line up all over the formation Shaheed should be able to avoid CB1 Trevon Diggs for most of the game, and I like his matchup against CBs Caelen Carson (fifth-round rookie) and Jourdan Lewis (39.5 PFF coverage grade last year). His 11.2 yards per target and 9 TDs on 125 career opportunities make him an elite big-play threat.

Adonai Mitchell (Colts -3, TT: 22) at Packers: I expect CB1 Jaire Alexander to shadow WR1 Michael Pittman, so Mitchell should be able to run almost all his routes against CBs Eric Stokes (11.2 yards per target last year) and Keisean Nixon (60.4 PFF coverage grade last year).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 TEs

Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills) at Miami Dolphins

  • Bills: +2.5
  • O/U: 49
  • TT: 23.25

Last week, Kincaid was one of the TEs I highlighted in this piece. He had 1-11-0 receiving on 2 targets … so, you know, that didn't work out. But I'm nothing if not persistent, so I'm keeping him in the article and doubling down.

Even though his production was paltry, Kincaid still had great underlying data with an 84% snap rate and 83% route rate. With usage numbers like that, the fantasy numbers will eventually manifest—especially with WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone and 241 targets vacated in their absence.

The Dolphins last year were No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (19.7%).

The Hot Route

Kyle Pitts (Falcons +6.5, TT: 20.25) at Eagles: Last week, Pitts had a 100% route rate and scored a TD. Anything is possible.

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers -3, TT: 19.75) at Broncos: Freiermuth's four Week 1 targets don't excite, but his 76% route rate is sufficient, as is his matchup against the Broncos, who last year were dead last in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (27.6).

Zach Ertz (Commanders -1.5, TT: 22.5) vs. Giants: There's nothing extraordinary about 3-28-0 receiving, but no teammate had more targets than Ertz (4), and he had a robust route rate (79%). Last year the Giants were No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+1.1).

Colby Parkinson (Rams +1, TT: 24) at Cardinals: Parkinson might see extra targets without WR Puka Nacua (knee, IR), and last week he had an 82% route rate. The Cardinals in 2023 were No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (21.1%).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)