I’m not a fan of getting left out of things.

I don’t know anyone who is. So when my Senior Editor comes to me with an idea about an article revolving around a recent redraft league, I’m a little upset. I’m not saying I needed an invite. I’m in plenty of other leagues. But letting me know ahead of time would’ve been nice.

While we’re at it, the NFL could’ve extended the same courtesy.

Scoring is down. Everyone is dealing with an injury. Sam Darnold is the QB4. I’m annoyed the league didn’t let me take a peak at the script. It’s fine. But if I had known, I maybe (just maybe) would’ve gone about my early-round draft strategy differently.

What Should’ve Worked (Emphasis on “Should’ve”)

Back in August, our only data points were one another. How we valued every player set the market. Afterward, it was deciding which positions should’ve been more or less valuable at cost. And within each position, we needed to prioritize which players (i.e., their talent, situation) to target. It sounds simple, but that’s the game we play.

However, names cloud our judgment. We see and remember highlights, and, in a sense, our memories become currency. Anyway, depending on where you drafted, a lot of the same players popped up in strategic discussions.

Most will look at those names and count the number of landmines. Sure, there are a few. OK, it’s more like six or seven. But if we redrafted now, even with what we know, vibes would only get us so far. 

I laid out my process for building teams throughout the summer. Of course, if you’re at the back end of the order, I’m sorry. Bribe your commissioner next time. But, critically, I bucketed players by usage to establish archetypes. So, even if I don’t get a specific guy, I can get a similar amount of opportunities. And by using historical data from the last three seasons, we can establish thresholds for early-round targets.

  • RBs: +50.0% of their team’s carries (both overall and i5); minimum 10.0% target share
  • WRs: +25.0% total target share; +30.0% air yard share; +25.0% targets per route run
  • TEs: +80.0% route participation; ~20.0% target share (both overall and in the red zone)

Now, with this data in mind, let’s revisit the first few rounds of a typical draft after three weeks of NFL action.

Drafting In Hindsight

Round 1

1.01 Saquon Barkley

We debated Saquon Barkley’s potential as the 1.01 earlier this week, and he’s hard to argue against. With 65.6% of the Eagles’ carries, an 11.7% target share, and over 70.0% of the carries from inside the 5-yard line, Barkley has surpassed D’Andre Swift’s usage from ’23 in just three weeks. Few others match up to the former Giant's opportunity share and offensive environment. If there’s a CMC-like rusher for 2024, through three weeks, it’s Saquon.

1.02 Justin Jefferson

Of the 18 WRs with a target share of 25.0% or greater, Justin Jefferson is the only WR1 with a top-5 rank in both explosive play rate and first downs per target. He’s one of three WRs with a YPRR over 3.0. Minnesota’s offense is in the top half of the league in yards per drive and EPA per play. With Jefferson leading the passing attack, we should continue to have confidence in the Vikings’ top receiver.

1.03 Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson has handled over 60.0% of Atlanta’s carries with a 15.2% target share meeting the minimum requirements. Plus, the offense has been more fantasy-friendly. After running just 50 plays in the season opener, the Falcons have averaged 57 offensive snaps through their last two games, with over 300 total scrimmage yards in both contests. We haven’t seen the big games from Bijan yet, but they’re coming.

1.04 CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb already sits at 24 targets on the season. No other Dallas receiver has more than 16. The Cowboys rank first in red-zone passing rate, and Lamb has led the squad with targets while Dallas has been in scoring position. In what should continue to be a pass-friendly offense, Lamb’s opportunities should only increase, given the talent discrepancies surrounding him.

1.05 Breece Hall

Breece Hall leads all ballcarriers in target share at 20.7%. Meanwhile, he’s one of eight RBs with 100.0% of their team’s attempts from inside the 5-yard line. Like Atlanta, the Jets’ offense has come alive as their QBs have knocked off the rust from their Achilles’ injuries. Hall’s only problem is Braelon Allen, who saw 11 carries in Week 3 and has played well enough to continue earning touches.

1.06 Rashee Rice

Patrick Mahomes’ 5.4 passing aDOT is a career low. However, Rashee Rice’s 5.2-yard receiving aDOT is a perfect match. Rice’s case for retaining WR1 status continues to hold without Travis Kelce getting involved and Xavier Worthy running fewer routes by the week. As a primary slot player, Rice has the floor and ceiling to be a WR1 this year.

1.07 Ja’Marr Chase

Chase’s air yard share hit a season high in Week 3 (32.5%). That was with the return of Tee Higgins and the offense running with their primary personnel on the field. Chase tied for the team lead in targets while connecting with Joe Burrow on multiple explosive plays. Cincinnati’s offense looked its best last week as it tries to turn around an 0-3 start. Even with the lackluster start, we know the Bengals’ pass-first approach will lead to more big games from Chase. 

1.08 Malik Nabers

Malik Nabers has double-digit targets in three straight games. Despite catching passes from Daniel Jones, HC Brian Daboll has done enough from a schematic perspective to ensure Jones has clear windows to get the ball to Nabers. Simply put, his volume and route concepts render defensive matchups irrelevant until we see anything different.

1.09 Amon-Ra St. Brown

Even with Jameson Williams emerging as a secondary target for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown has finished every game this season with a target share above 20.0%. And after posting air yard shares of over 30.0% in Weeks 2 and 3, the Sun God has burned away any worry from his Week 1 outing. Plus, with his team-high of 6 red-zone looks, St. Brown’s weekly PPR floor should keep him in the WR1 discussion.

1.10 Nico Collins

The bear case for Nico Collins during the offseason was the added target competition. With Stefon Diggs integrated into the offense and another year of Tank Dell, Collins’ opportunities would shrink with the surrounding talent. And yet, Collins leads the Texans with a 25.9% target share and a 25.0% TPRR rate. At over 40.0% of C.J. Stroud’s air yards, Collins is the clear WR1 on the team with one of the premier QBs in the league.

1.11 Jonathan Taylor

The only rusher with a larger rate of their team’s carries than Jonathan Taylor (72.9%) is Kyren Williams (78.3%). Fortunately for Taylor, he doesn’t have the same offensive line concerns. But the Colts’ offense has become stagnant, with Anthony Richardson struggling as a passer. HC Shane Steichen was emphasizing more play-action and pre-snap motion to start the year, helping Richardson find more open receivers. With more reps, the offense (and Taylor) should return to form over the rest of the regular season.

1.12 Garrett Wilson

I’m not as sure about this ADP for Garrett Wilson, but bear with me. He’s at a 28.3% target share, over 40.0% of the air yards, and a 25.7% TPRR rate. He checks all the boxes. However, Allen Lazard has scored more fantasy points than Wilson. Let’s hope OC Nathaniel Hackett schemes up more high-percentage looks for Wilson ahead of a brutal stretch of defensive matchups for the Jets’ WR1.

Round 2

2.01 Chris Olave

Chris Olave has led the Saints in targets in back-to-back weeks with air yard shares over 40.0% in both games. The main concern is pass volume, as Derek Carr (21.3 attempts per game) has been hyper-efficient to start the season. 

2.02 Jahmyr Gibbs

To Jahmyr Gibbs' credit, he has the same number of carries from inside the 5 as David Montgomery. He’s also out-targeted Montgomery 13-8. Both are positive indicators that he will outscore Montgomery as the season progresses.

2.03 Marvin Harrison Jr.

After a slow Week 1, Marvin Harrison Jr. has secured over 30.0% of Kyler Murray’s targets in two consecutive weeks. At a 23.2% TPRR rate and continued route development, Harrison should be a staple of starting rosters. 

2.04 De’Von Achane

Miami averaged 3.7 yards per play without Tua Tagovailoa under center. However, Achane’s 18.3% target share (third most among all RBs) should provide a (lesser) floor in PPR leagues until the Dolphins solve their QB problem.

2.05 Kyren Williams

Williams has all but 12 RB carries for the Rams this season while also securing 10 targets. However, the Rams’ offensive line woes are a systemic risk to his fantasy value moving forward. 

2.06 James Cook

James Cook’s target share (12.7%) and carry rate from inside the 5-yard line are both up from 2023. Ray Davis has seen almost double-digit opportunities in two straight weeks (7 and 9 attempts), but Cook is still the lead back in the most efficient offense in the league. 

2.07 Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara shares the same pros and cons as Kyren Williams. Kamara has three times as many carries as Jamaal Williams (61 to 20), to go with his 11 targets. But the Saints are also going through offensive line issues, and Kamara doesn’t have the same benefit of a top-tier passer to keep the offense afloat.

2.08 Josh Jacobs

Only Jordan Mason (67) and Saquon Barkley (63) have more carries than Josh Jacobs (62). But the Packers had to shift to a run-first style during Jordan Love’s absence, which may lower Jacobs’ output as he’s only seen a 6.3% target share so far.

2.09 Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry has the rushing workload, but Justice Hill has carved out the receiving role if the Ravens are playing from behind or in obvious passing situations. Unless Baltimore gets into scoring position, Henry’s output may fluctuate from week to week.

2.10 Davante Adams

Davante Adams has seen at least nine targets per game over his last two and averages the same amount for the entire season. But, the Raiders have oscillated from an 11.0% pass rate over expected to 1.0% in the last two weeks. The lack of consistency under center will hinder his weekly output.

2.11 A.J. Brown

We have one healthy game from Arthur Juan. In it, he saw 34.5% of Jalen Hurts’ targets and a whopping 48.1% air yard share. Brown indicated he’d miss “a couple of weeks” during the Eagles' Week 2 MNF contest against the Falcons. With their bye in Week 5, we should see Brown back to practice, bringing him back into the WR1 conversation.

2.12 Tyreek Hill

In Tyreek Hill’s first game without Tua Tagovailoa, Hill split the bulk of Skylar Thompson’s and Tim Boyle’s passes with Jaylen Waddle (5 apiece). Meanwhile, Jonnu Smith (3), Durham Smythe (2), and Julian Hill (2) siphoned away extra work. We know Hill’s talent, but without volume, his fantasy value takes a massive hit.

Round 3

3.01 Brandon Aiyuk

Despite the lackluster boxscore in Week 3 (5-48-0), Aiyuk’s target share was at 33.3% without the rest of the 49ers’ primary starters on the field. Let’s assume Jauan Jennings won’t continue his Randy Moss impersonation moving forward, and Aiyuk takes over as the WR1.

3.02 DK Metcalf

To be fair, Metcalf has survived on long TDs of 56 and 71 yards. Without them, he’d be at 135 yards on the season. For reference, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 117 in Week 2 alone. However, at a 42.6% air yard share, Metcalf’s WR1 status remains unquestioned.

3.03 DeVonta Smith

Smith took over the “power slot” role for the Eagles with Kellen Moore as the OC (54.1% and 32.4% slot snap rates in Weeks 1 and 2). A.J. Brown’s absence has shifted Smith outside, but he’s been over 25.0% of Jalen Hurts’ targets all three weeks.

3.04 Chris Godwin

Godwin is registering over 60.0% of his snaps from the slot, boosting his targets per route run to 28.7% (career high). He’s out-targeted Mike Evans 25-15 through three weeks, emphasizing Godwin’s consistent role in OC Liam Cohen’s offense.

3.05 Mike Evans

Prior to Week 3, the air yard share split between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin was 36.6% to 38.0% in favor of Godwin. The gap widened after Evans had to face Patrick Surtain last week. As a primarily outside receiver, Evans has week-to-week volatility, but he’s still matched Godwin in red-zone targets.

3.06 Drake London

London’s targets and air yards have steadily increased since Week 1. Against the Chiefs, London secured a 33.3% share while being Kirk Cousins’ primary option in the red zone. The offense is continuing to improve, which should solidify London’s early-round value.

3.07 Deebo Samuel

On the one hand, Deebo Samuel’s calf injury (returned to practice on Thursday) will be something to monitor throughout the rest of the season. On the flip side, Samuel handled 29 touches (19 targets, 10 carries) in just two weeks, making him an every-week start when he returns.

3.08 DJ Moore

DJ Moore is yet to have a game with less than a 20.0% target share. However, some of his looks have been on screens or short-area targets, and Caleb Williams is still getting accustomed to life in the NFL. Regardless, at a 21.4% TPRR rate, Moore at least has a solid floor as Williams develops.

3.09 Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs has just 4 fewer targets than Collins and has secured the most red-zone grabs (4) of the Texans’ trio of receivers. His 21.4% air yard share (lowest of the three) looks suspect, but a 21.8% TPRR will give him weekly PPR appeal.

3.10 Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers has 25 targets after Week 3. Rashod Bateman (13) and Nelson Agholor (5) combined have only 18. At a 29.1% share, the only concern for Flowers is how much Mark Andrews will take away once “his time comes.”

3.11 Jameson Williams

I’m willing to give Jameson Williams a one-week pass after Sunday’s three-target outing. Prior to facing the Cardinals, he was averaging 10 looks per game with at least one carry out of the backfield. Regardless, his opportunity and explosive nature should net him the WR1B role next to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

3.12 Jordan Mason

Jordan Mason is a league-winner for those who drafted him or picked him up from the wire after Week 1. He’s taken over Christian McCaffrey’s rushing opportunity but lacks the receiving portion. At just 4 targets in 3 starts, he’ll need to see over 20 carries a game to sustain his fantasy output.