Tuesday is the deadline for all 32 NFL franchises to cut their rosters down to 53 players, a welcomed event for those of us who spend too much time doing the pretend work for them. By now, we have a decent idea on how a team’s offense should operate, thanks to just a few steady weeks of training camp and preseason football games.
As the fluidity of ADP trends become more rigid, so does the effectiveness of fantasy football rankings. With steady ADP data and our award-winning draft rankings come efficient fantasy football mock drafts. With valuable mock draft data comes the practical ability to forecast how your actual fantasy football draft will pan out.
By the time you are drafting, ADP, rankings, personnel usage, and depth charts should be optimized well enough to inform you who the best player available is for a specific position. Unfortunately, there are circumstances when all four of those determining factors are torn on a player and you are determined to choose one.
To provide further safe passage through your draft, I have identified five teams that project to split backfield work between two RBs who share similar ADP and evaluate each of those teams' options.
These are the 10 toughest players to rank.
Cincinnati Bengals RBs Chase Brown & Zack Moss
Source: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zack-moss/adp/
Chase Brown displayed his potential in the final six games of his 2023 rookie season, averaging 53.7 scrimmage yards per game with 4.1 yards per carry and 13.5 yards per catch. His explosive playmaking ability was evident when he reached 22.05 mph while bringing a screen pass 54 yards to the house, the second-fastest speed by a ballcarrier that year. He played second fiddle to Joe Mixon and sometimes Trayveon Williams as well, but despite the 11% rushing share on just 9% of snaps, he saw a target on 43% of his routes.
In March, the Bengals traded Mixon to the Texans, but not without signing UFA Zack Moss a day earlier. Moss had just finished a career-best season with the Colts where he rushed for 794 yards and scored five touchdowns on the ground while adding 27 receptions for 192 yards and two receiving touchdowns across 14 games. According to Next Gen Stats, he ranked fifth in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt (0.71) among all RBs who saw at least 90 attempts, which ensured a 41.8% rushing percentage over expected (ROE%), good for top-12 honors.
Preseason game usage between the two in August didn’t offer many answers. Moss didn’t see any work after an illness kept him out of the first game and he was rested alongside other starters the next two. On the other hand, Brown played in the first game and saw the entirety of the first drive, including two subsequent third-and-long situations.
According to PFF’s Nathan Janke, “Mixon had only taken 10% of those (third-and-long) snaps over the last five seasons” and believes that Brown seeing those passing down situations “increases the chances it will only be a two-man backfield” since Williams or Chris Evans could have filled the role. Mixon was responsible for 68% of the Bengals' rush attempts in short-down-and-distance plays and 88% of attempts within the 5-yard line in 2023, so this coin flip could come down to who is offered more of those high-value opportunities.
Dwain McFarland is projecting a near-even split between the two backs, whereas Matthew Freedman projects Moss to see 60%+ of the opportunities and over half of the touchdowns.
I currently have Brown ranked at RB35 in half-point PPR leagues, one spot ahead of Moss (RB36).
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Cleveland Browns RBs Nick Chubb & Jerome Ford
Source: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/nick-chubb/adp/
Nick Chubb’s injury woes have become a recurring theme, with his left knee bearing the brunt of the damage. In 2015, during his college days at Georgia, Chubb tore his PCL, MCL, and LCL, dislocating his knee in the process. Fast forward to Week 2 last season and Chubb found himself in a similar predicament after tearing his ACL, MCL, and meniscus, which required multiple surgeries to repair. Despite the injury concerns, Chubb's fantasy value remains undeniable when he's healthy and firing on all cylinders. In 2022, he set a career high with 1,525 rushing yards while finding the end zone 13 times. Not to mention his unparalleled consistency, surpassing the 1,000-yard rushing mark in four of his five healthy NFL seasons, with his rookie year being the exception (996 yards). While there's no definitive timeline for Chubb's return, he has been actively working out with the team. In June, his personal RB coach Brad Lester stated he’s “never seen anyone recover as fast as (Chubb) has so far.”
Jerome Ford stepped into a significant role following Chubb's injury, showcasing his potential as a fantasy asset. From Week 3 onward, Ford ranked 16th among RBs in PPR leagues, despite seeing just the 29th-highest opportunity share. His performance was notable, with 204 carries and a 10.6% target share but his efficiency metrics were mixed. He was tied for 29th in yards after contact per rush attempt (YCO) among 59 RBs with 70+ carries and ranked 24th in elusive rating. In the receiving game, he tied for 32nd in yards per route among 61 RBs with at least 20 targets.
Ford's RB17 finish last season, and RB26 on a per-game basis, suggest he could outperform his current draft position, but Chubb is a dominant force when healthy. However, the uncertainty surrounding Chubb's recovery timeline has caused his ADP to hover around the late RB3 tier, which may assume he’ll miss about a third of the season. This presents a calculated risk for fantasy managers who are willing to gamble on Chubb's upside potential—a league-winning mindset for the back half of the season.
Ultimately, Ford's role remains significant, especially with uncertainty surrounding Chubb's return timeline. Fantasy managers should consider Ford an RB2 with upside, particularly in the early part of the season, but considering HC Kevin Stefanski’s historically run-heavy offense, Ford’s early-season utility and production could allow himself to maintain a significant role even upon Chubb’s return.
In the end, the choice between Chubb and Ford depends on a manager's risk tolerance and team composition. Chubb's track record and potential upside make him an enticing pick for those willing to weather the uncertainty, while Ford's recent success and clearer path to playing time offer a safer option. As the season approaches, keeping an eye on Chubb's recovery progress and the Browns' backfield dynamics will be crucial to make informed decisions. This situation serves as a reminder of the ever-changing nature of fantasy football and the need to stay flexible and informed throughout the season.
Washington Commanders RBs Brian Robinson & Austin Ekeler
Source: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/brian-robinson/adp/
Brian Robinson has emerged as a formidable rushing threat for the Commanders. During his 2023 sophomore campaign, where he compiled over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns, Robinson displayed impressive efficiency. He ranked 22nd in explosive run rate and 13th in YAC, which further demonstrated his ability to create big plays and fight for extra yardage. He appeared primed for a bigger role when UFA Antonio Gibson signed with the Patriots in March, but the Commanders simultaneously brought in Austin Ekeler, who brings a different skill set to the table.
Ekeler has seen his yards per carry (YPC), missed tackles per rush attempt (MTF), YCO, and explosive rushes per attempt decrease since 2020, which raises questions about his ability to maintain his effectiveness as a rusher in Washington's offense at this point of his career. Still, he’s the kind of player who you find a way to involve, and his unique skill set in the passing game complements the offense very well.
Now, Robinson and Ekeler possess contrasting running styles that could complement each other in new OC Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Robinson's ability to generate explosive runs and gain yards after contact suggests he may be better suited for early-down work and short-yardage situations, whereas Ekeler’s experience and pass-catching abilities could make him valuable in specific later-down situations. This approach could indicate a plan to utilize both players' strengths throughout the regular season, with Robinson potentially handling the majority of early-down work and Ekeler serving as a change-of-pace back and receiving threat. If that’s the case, then ADP between the two is misaligned.
In my PPR Rankings update, I broke down the ADP discrepancy:
“While Kingsbury traditionally relied on two RBs in his four seasons as the Cardinals' HC, he’s never had two that were as “good on paper” as Ekeler and Robinson. James Conner most recently finished as the RB18 in 2023 and RB20 in 2022 under Kingsbury, so Robinson’s current ADP ranking of RB30 (after an RB22 finish in 2023) indicates that he will see increased competition. While the market seems to have adjusted Robinson’s valuation, it hasn’t adjusted that of Ekeler’s, who shared opening-drive starter snaps with Robinson in their first preseason game against the Jets.”
Ultimately, Robinson's strong rushing abilities and Ekeler's exceptional receiving skills offer a diverse backfield that could keep defenses guessing, and while their contrasting styles might lead to a complementary rotation, there appears to be a window of opportunity to find value in the 11th round of drafts in the form of Ekeler, especially if your league offers points per reception.
I prefer Ekeler from a value and versatility standpoint and the aggregate projections of Dwain and Freedman seem to agree with that notion.
Dallas Cowboys RBs Ezekiel Elliott & Rico Dowdle
Source: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/ezekiel-elliott/adp/
On the topic of ADP discrepancies, the Cowboys' RB situation for the 2024 season has taken an unexpected turn. Instead of drafting a rookie or signing a proven veteran to replace Tony Pollard, the team re-signed Ezekiel Elliott, who spent the previous season with the Patriots. HC Mike McCarthy has expressed confidence in the current group of RBs and plans to implement a committee approach. Elliott is projected to be the starting RB, but his role will differ from his previous stint with the Cowboys. Rico Dowdle, who served as Pollard's backup last season, will compete for significant playing time.
Both Elliott and Dowdle’s fantasy values remain a mixed bag for 2024. Elliott’s touchdown potential is a significant pro, as he's consistently found the end zone throughout his career. In four of his seven seasons with the Cowboys, he scored double-digit rushing touchdowns. Even at 29, Elliott's short-yardage and goal-line abilities make him valuable in fantasy, especially for his 11th-round ADP.
On the other hand, Dowdle averaged 4.1 rushing yards per carry and 8.5 yards per reception on a 21% rushing share behind Pollard in 2023, which led to a compilation of 505 yards and four scores on 106 touches. This one may come down to the efficiency of the Cowboys' offensive line. In 2023, the unit ranked poorly in run blocking, “dropping below 4.0 yards per carry and finishing in the bottom 5 for rush yards before contact,” and with 1-2 rookies expected to start, the quality of run blocking could significantly impact the distribution of playing time between Elliott and Dowdle.
Dwain and Freedman’s projections display the very likely timeshare scenario, with Elliott seeing most of the opportunities.
Ultimately, I don’t see many scenarios where Dowdle would usurp Elliott from an opportunity standpoint, which would further question why he’s being drafted over a round earlier. Elliott should see those high-value scoring opportunities while CeeDee Lamb and Co. handle business through the air.
Tennessee Titans RBs Tony Pollard & Tyjae Spears
Remarking on Pollard, the Titans' backfield is shaping up to be a dynamic duo with him and Tyjae Spears. Both backs bring similar skill sets, excelling as pass-catchers and operating best in satellite back-plus roles. Despite career lows in efficiency, Pollard compensated with volume, recording 252 carries and 55 receptions for the Cowboys in 2023. However, his breakaway ability dipped, with only 4.4% of his runs resulting in big plays, down from 8.8% in 2022.
Spears demonstrated promise with 4.5 yards per carry and 7.4 yards per reception in his 2023 rookie season. He outperformed Pollard in PFF's Elusive Rating and Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected. He particularly shined in the passing game, racking up 385 yards on 52 catches behind former RB1 teammate, Derrick Henry.
The Titans' coaching staff has expressed excitement about their dynamic backfield duo. New OC Nick Holz sees Pollard and Spears as interchangeable, adding an element of unpredictability to the offense. "We see it 1A, 1B, and they're both just gonna play a ton, get a lot of carries and let 'em roll," Holz stated.
HC Brian Callahan also emphasized the versatility of both backs, and ideally plans to utilize them across various formations in both the run and pass game. He highlighted the importance of getting them involved early in games and intends to tailor plays to each back's strengths, noting, "Tyjae has plays that he likes, Tony has plays that he likes."
While their similar skill sets make it challenging to predict exact roles, Pollard's contract suggests he'll be the starter, likely taking the lead in a 60/40 split and the aggregate projections of Dwain and Freedman along with my rankings further defend that notion.
