In this week’s roundtable, I bring in DLF’s Peter Howard (aka @pahowdy); Fantasy Life’s Jake Trowbridge; and my very own home league commissioner, Robert Fairley. 

Let’s get into it: 

I’m going to put you all on the spot here. First, let me set the context with some stats:

Russell Wilson’s 2024 fantasy points:

  • Week 7: 24.86 (QB3)

Patrick Mahomes’ 2024 fantasy points:

  • Week 1: 15.14 (QB14)
  • Week 2: 14.94 (QB14)
  • Week 3: 17.38 (QB15)
  • Week 4: 14.00 (QB17)
  • Week 5: 14.44 (QB20)
  • Week 6: BYE
  • Week 7: 14.06 (QB15)

Let’s just rip the bandaid right off…

1. Who would you rather have as your fantasy QB rest of season? Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson?  

Jake: This might be more of a philosophical question, so allow me to remove my analyst pants for a moment and put on my Socratic toga. 

Do you prefer the guy with job security, but whose ceiling this year is as low as the inside of a tent made for one? Or would you rather take a chance on a QB with nothing to lose, whose upside is as high as those moon balls he loves to throw?

Me? I’m a moon man. And if/when Russ finds his way back to the bench at some point this season, then I’ll wave farewell, polish off a Dangerwich in his honor, and seek out the biggest upside that’s still out on waivers.

Rob: This one hurts as a Steelers fan to say, but it’s got to be Mahomes. It’s fun to imagine a Russell Wilson comeback story, but if we’re being real, if Mahomes has a bad game, he’s not at risk of losing his job next week to Carson Wentz. Justin Fields was batting .660 and gives the offense a very dangerous rushing threat if called upon again. 

Andy Reid is still an offensive mastermind with his QB and there are enough playmakers on the field to support a Mahomes top-10 fantasy week. And with their upcoming games against the Raiders (payback game), Bucs (offensive shootout), Broncos (division), and Bills (pick the OVER), there’s a lot to like about Mahomes rest of season. 

Pahowdy: In dynasty, this is very easily Mahomes. In redraft, (ignoring that this question could indicate some bad drafting tendencies) I think it’s a tie right now heading into Week 8.

We should be more willing to stream elite QBs. But put simply, if our Russell Wilson expectations are based on his rushing, we should be cautious. Outside his rushing TD in Week 7, Wilson had 264 passing yards and two passing TDs — very close to Mahomes’ average this season. Wilson could well be more startable moving forward, but I’d say his median outcome is about the same as Mahomes’ right now (14-20 points.)

So the decision is: Who is more likely to score more than 20 any given week (expecting neither to do it every week in 2024)?

According to the average points scored against each defense this season, Wilson has a better matchup over his next three games (and on average for the remainder of the 2024 season). But their Week 8 matchup is close-ish (LV is allowing 11% more points to QBs than average and the Giants are allowing 18% more points to QBs than average.) 

It’s a weekly game and we rarely get as much information as we need to make decisions, so it’s a cautious yes from me. 

The New Orleans Saints officially took their fifth consecutive loss in Week 7 after being defeated by Sean Payton’s Broncos. (ew)

As Fantasy Life’s resident Saint fan, I don’t want to overreact here… But I’m starting to think that the Saints will never EVER win another game AS LONG AS I LIVE!

Oh, right. So my questions: 

2. Is there any hope for this offense moving forward in 2024?

Jake: I stand before you now to proclaim loudly and in all caps: I STILL BELIEVE IN CHRIS OLAVE. I know we’re all grieving the loss of Shaheed – admittedly, some of us more than others – but the silver lining is that it should cement Olave’s place atop the receiver pecking order once and for all. Guys like Bub Means (92% route participation in Week 7) and Mason Tipton are interesting side pieces for the Saints to utilize, but Olave should be the main dish. (And Derek Carr will just have to deal with it when he gets back.)

Pahowdy: From a football perspective? No idea. I doubt it heavily. But I’m just a fantasy player, not a coach. For the purpose of our Fantasy Life, Alvin Kamara is still an every-week start. 

About 10 players a year score double digit points over baseline (or for simplicity, over 19 PPG in PPR as a non-QB). While we have about 12  players right now at that mark, I think Alvin Kamara’s RB9 weighted opportunity rating (plus him just generally being the best player the Saints have at any given moment) should keep him very effective week to week.

From a dynasty perspective, I’d caution that Rashid Shaheed was the best player of a poor group. Shaheed’s “stock” is likely exaggerated in dynasty. The Saints roster needs work and that’s going to muddy the waters on his value and performance over time as the team adds new weapons and plays with the QB position leading to more downward value spikes for the 26 year old. This is not a great year to “buy in” to the breakouts at the WR position, as it feels more like 2015-2017 than 2014.

Rob: Is there any hope? Yes, in fantasy football terms. It’s not every day that your team gets decimated by 30+ injuries on your roster. Alvin Kamara is still a focal point of this offense and will continue to be utilized in all game scripts. When healthy, Derek Carr could lead the Saints into a more capable unit under Klint Kubiak (see Weeks 1 & 2). And I still want to make room for Taysom Hill and his delicious TE-eligibility in a season where finding a reliable every-week TE is a nightmare. Also, keep an eye on Mason Tipton to continue his deep route role in replacement of Shaheed (miss you so much, rn). That should open the offense… as long as someone can get the ball in his general vicinity.

FOLLOW-UP! Should we just start streaming defenses against New Orleans until further notice?

Rob: I would stream some defenses (not the Panthers!) against the Saints. Just don’t spend all of your FAAB on a DEF like some people in our home league do! (Cooterdoodle says: This is a personal attack. To be clear, I’d overpay and blow my FAAB on Denver’s D again if I had to. NO REGRETS!

Jake: If you want to stream defenses against New Orleans while Spencer Rattler remains under center, I’ve got no beef with that.

I hate to keep talking about the Jets, except that I’m completely lying. I can’t STOP. IT’S SO BAD. With Aaron Rodgers, the Jets are now 2-5. (Even with Zach Wilson they started 4-3 last season!)

So with all the WR acquisitions NY has made to please Rodgers AND Robert Saleh’s firing AND Davante Adams only catching 3 of his 9 targets in Week 7…

3. What excuse(s) should Rodgers use to blame these losses on next week? I feel like he’s running out of options. Let’s help the man out.  

Jake: You’ll be happy to know I did my own research on this and found the answer is quite simple: MetLife Stadium was built on top of an ancient burial ground.

Rob: The fact that the J-E-T-S haven’t poached Greg Jennings from his seat as an analyst to put his team on his back is a travesty! In reality, it’s the defense. They are consistantly gashed by other teams on the ground and the Jets are playing from behind. The Jets are top-3 in the league on passing play % and it’s easier for a team to scheme defensively when they know what you’re going to do. It’s even worse when the playmakers you trust commit turnovers (see Garrett Wilson doink interception). 

They will eventually right the ship, but unfortunately are so far behind in the AFC standings that they’ll need a Major League-type run to get back in the postseason race. 

Pahowdy: Lizard People, it’s obvious. Wake up, Sheeple!

TOUGH LOVE TIME. I don’t think anyone should ever give up on their fantasy season. Ever. But sometimes we have to make some changes. 

4. What advice would you give to any fantasy managers who are at the bottom of their league’s rankings right now? 

Jake: Flip over the table (metaphorically) and start from scratch. (Actually, flip it literally if you think it might help.) Every one of your leaguemates should have a trade offer from you in their inbox. All these recent wide receiver injuries and trades have provided some huge swings in rest of season fantasy values you can take advantage of. Maybe you have one elite running back but the rest of your lineup is subpar. Trade him for depth! Maybe you’ve got a bunch of average fellas you rotate in and out of your lineup. Package them together and trade for a stud! Basically what I’m saying is NO EXCUSES! PLAY LIKE A CHAMPION!

Rob: Absolutely under no circumstances should you give up! (Cooterdoodle says: I agree, Rob! Don’t give up in our home league!)

First off, look at your rankings of your other opponents and calculate if you could actually have a shot to make it to the postseason. Some players get bit by the “bad schedule bug” and face the best out of every opponent’s team. Your PF (points for) could still be better than most and break that tie-breaker that could vault you into playoff contention!

If you’re in a keeper league or dynasty, it might be time to make some future decisions while still staying competitive…

You could also choose… 

If you are already mathematically eliminated, you should consider the Chaos Approach. Pick up those high ceiling, high risk players and start them. Make trades for the home run hitters in every position (farewell Shaheed, bonjour Alec Pierce!). Reassign all FAAB to block the needs of your next week’s opponents. Do whatever you can to introduce a little chaos (while still within the rules of your league!). Who knows, you may drag a few of your leaguemates out of the playoff hunt as well!

Pahowdy: You have to recognize that — outside of some very unlucky “I’ve suffered double the ‘points against’ than anyone else in the league” type situations — your team does suck. 

You are going to lose if you don’t do anything. So you may as well try something.

Outside of (potentially) rookie players, we have a very clear understanding of who is a Top 12 player and who is not by Week 4 - Week 6. We are already past both points.

On the positive side, that means you are able to try and exploit that reality more readily. So, take full advantage of anyone who may try the “wait and see“ approach on any player. In other words, don’t be afraid to cash in name value, or the hubris of “maybe their season will turn around” in exchange for points right now. Move in on injured players who could return with high potential like Cooper Kupp, Nico Collins, or even the recent return of Nick Chubb.

In Dynasty, start selling points for picks and youth. It’s what we do best anyway!