In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter:
When I hear about Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey standing out at camp, I don’t get super excited.
I mean, it’s not bad, it’s just what should be happening. Where they are going in drafts requires them to be productive right out of the gate.
But that’s not the case for these five super-deep rookie sleepers who rarely get drafted…
In our never-ending search to find the next Puka Nacua or Tank Dell, here are five names that continue to generate buzz…In our never-ending search to find the next Nacua or Dell, here are five names that continue to generate buzz…
Eagles RB Will Shipley—Saquon Barkley missed practice yesterday, which gave Shipley a crack at first-team reps. The beats continue to talk up his pass-catching skill set, which could lead to a role right out of the gate. He is one of my favorite late-round selections when I need an upside RB dart.
Rams WR Jordan Whittington—Look, this kid isn’t going to be the next Puka Nacua, but he’s making waves at camp and apparently has already jumped Tutu Atwell on the depth chart. Cooper Kupp is talking him up, too. I think he’s on the menu as a super-late stack with Matthew Stafford if you miss out on Demarcus Robinson.
Raiders RB Dylan Laube—Like Shipley, the 6th-round pick out of UNH profiles as a major pass-catching weapon. HC Antonio Pierce and OC Luke Getsy both love him. The Raiders’ RB depth chart is wide open after Zamir White, so there’s room for both standalone PPR and contingent value here.
Texans RB Jawhar Jordan—I swear every day there is Jordan hype on my timeline. We saw the team fall out of love with Dameon Pierce last year. I would not be surprised if Jordan earns the RB2 spot behind Joe Mixon at this rate.
Saints WR Mason Tipton—One of the most beautiful things about fantasy football is stumbling across a name you’ve literally never heard before. Tipton, who I just learned about, is a UDFA impressing at Saints camp. The beats want to see him with the 1s, which is enough to file that name away.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Chris Allen’s tips for the 1.09 slot
- Watercooler: The top WRs in Madden 25
Optimal Draft Strategy with the No. 9 Pick
- by Chris Allen
The First Round
*Draft Settings: PPR, Standard Roster (1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX)
From a glass-half-full perspective, the 1.09 makes your life easier. There’s no need to debate on if you should take Ja'Marr Chase or Breece Hall. The folks around the fourth and sixth overall picks have to make that choice. In any case, our Draft Champion tool is a quick way to gauge how the first eight picks will shake out.
I re-ran the simulation a few times without much change in the results. You might see A.J. Brown at 1.07 or 1.08, but a 6-2 split in favor of WRs should be a common sight. More importantly, the skill players from our first two tiers will likely be gone. Your top options won’t be as sexy (relatively speaking), but they’re still strong options for starting any squad.
Our Draft Assistant gives you five suggested picks, but I’m highlighting these three for a couple of reasons. First, the WRs are similar (more on that shortly). Also, the RB points us down a different build path. Ultimately, we can construct three distinct teams from this starting point alone. But let’s get back to the receivers for a bit.
Puka Nacua’s 28.8% target share ranked seventh amongst all WRs in ’23. His targets (160) and yards (1,486) are the most of any rookie receiver this century. But it’s tough to expect a repeat performance—especially when his primary competition for targets (Cooper Kupp) missed or wasn’t fully healthy in at least six games. But, when both were on the field at (mostly) full strength, Nacua had the edge:
- (Weeks 5-8, 13-17) TPRR: 26.8% (Nacua), 25.3% (Kupp)
- Air-Yard Share: 33.6%, 27.5%
- Play-Action Target Share: 27.7%, 23.4%
But Kupp still had a 23-17 lead on red-zone targets. Accordingly, his status as a WR2 is up for grabs. Regardless, Nacua’s slight change in environment (i.e. having Kupp back healthy all season) casts some doubt on his bid for another WR1 campaign. Coincidentally, A.J. Brown’s ’24 outlook comes with questions, too.
After rampaging through the league (mostly through WAS CB Emmanuel Forbes), Philly’s WR1 had only one more game over 100 yards. He had just two top-12 finishes in the fantasy playoffs. And despite the concern about “the offense being 95% new,” I’m not as worried about Brown’s part in Kellen Moore’s vision for the Eagles.
Last year, Brown saw his lowest slot rate since 2020 without a depreciable drop in his aDOT (12.3). Of course, he’s a GAM and still wins on the outside. But Moore’s made things easier for his WR1s.
- 2023: Keenan Allen, 58.2% (slot rate), 9.7 (air yards per target)
- 2022: CeeDee Lamb, 52.7%, 10.0
Even when Moore had Amari Cooper and Lamb, the duo accounted for over a third of the interior looks. Their average air yards per target (11.1 and 10.3) were each a full yard less than Brown’s. So, while I understand the bad vibes around each, they each have top-12 upside, making them worthy of a first-round pick.
- Team 1: Puka Nacua
- Team 2: A.J. Brown
- Team 3: Bijan Robinson
Related Content
- Drafting from the 1.06: Trust the Sun God.
- Drafting from the 1.07: Bijan or bust?
- Drafting from the 1.08: In Breece we trust
Drafting out of the 9th spot like Chris Allen?
With Draft Champion, you can practice exactly that…
Sync your league or manually add your league’s custom scoring so that Draft Champion gives you a mock draft catered exactly to your league settings.
Create draft strategies from our experts, assign draft traits to your opponents, and have every pick AND your entire draft graded by our experts.
Draft Champion is free to use, but unlock these features and more with FantasyLife+.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
✍️ Sleepers, breakouts, busts, and more. Answering all of your RB questions for 2024.
😬 Is Derrick Henry TOO OLD? Ian and Pete are live breaking down the Ravens new RB and more.
🤔 Are we wrong about the Cowboys’ backfield? Yes, if you trust Stephen Jones.
🤷♂️ Draft or pass on Saquon Barkley? A bear case is painted…
💰️ Is Patrick Mahomes underpaid? Not if you ask him.
🕹️ The Top 10 WRs in Madden ‘25. Who got snubbed?
🙏 The backstory behind an intriguing TE sleeper. Cool to hear.
