The impact of play calling and scheme is a common discussion point when considering a player's fantasy outlook. Most often, this analysis comes in the form of pass-run splits and pace in an effort to project passing and rushing volume — i.e., how big is the pie?
At Fantasy Life, we also emphasize those elements in our Utilization suite of tools where you can find dropback rate over expected (DBOE) and plays per minute over expected (PPMOE). For example, in our Team Styles view, you can see that the Bills offense morphed from a pass-happy team (4% DBOE) to a run-first operation (-3% DBOE) under Joe Brady last season.
But once we forecast how big the pie is, then what? Which coaches are helping their players perform more efficiently?
Based on the data, four schematic edges significantly boost WR fantasy production: motion at the snap, play action, trick look plays and two-WR formations.
It should come as no surprise that in 2023 Mike McDaniel ranked in the top five in all four categories, and Kyle Shanahan made the top five in three of four.
The Dolphins and 49ers are arguably the two most loaded offenses in the league, but that didn't stop these coaches from providing their players with an added edge (looking at you, Zac Taylor).
Sean McVay cracked the top five in two categories — no surprise — but Arthur Smith and Todd Monken also showed well. Smith's player utilization can be maddening, but his quarterback play might have more to do with his bad rap than the Xs and Os.
Of course, WRs aren't the only pass catchers on offense. The TEs also enjoyed enhanced performance in three of the four same categories as the wideouts.
Using this data, I identified five teams that should see substantial fantasy improvement based on coaching changes.
Let's dive in.
Philadelphia Eagles
Over the last two seasons, the Eagles have been the most stationary offense in the NFL, ranking dead last in motion at the snap (30%). That should change in 2024 with Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator (OC).
Last season with the Chargers, Moore's offense ranked sixth (59%) and Keenan Allen was in motion on 28% of his routes — the second-highest mark in the NFL for WRs with at least 250 routes. The season before, Allen was in motion only 14% of the time.
Imagine a world where A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith get deployed in a fashion similar to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Miami. Stylistically, Smith profiles closer to Allen, but schematically, prioritizing space for the superior yards-after-catch (YAC) option also makes a ton of sense, and that player is Brown. I expect both players to see plenty of motion.
Last season, the Eagles ranked 19th in DBOE, while the Chargers ranked fifth. While I don't forecast a dramatic shift in pass-run splits, we could see the Eagles crack the top 10 in DBOE.
Over the past two seasons, Brown delivered WR1 campaigns with 17.9 and 17.3 points per game (PPG), while Smith tallied WR2 finishes with 15.1 and 14.4 PPG. If the Eagles fully implement Moore's scheme, we could have two top-12 options, and Brown would have the juice for a WR1 overall season.
I am in on all the Eagles pass catchers this season, including the most underpriced TE in fantasy, Dallas Goedert. And Jalen Hurts is my QB1 overall.
Atlanta Falcons
Arthur Smith's scheme was not entirely to blame for the Falcons' struggles in 2023. However, I can't leave the Falcons off of this list because they are the most improved passing attack based on multiple factors, and the new OC, Zac Robinson, is a part of that equation.
Before we dive into Robinson, let's recap Atlanta's offseason:
- Hired Raheem Morris (Rams) as head coach
- Hired Zac Robinson (Rams) as OC
- Signed Kirk Cousins in free agency
- Drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick in the NFL Draft
To put things into perspective, Cousins averaged 270 passing yards per contest over the last three years versus 183 for the Falcons. If Cousins suffers a downturn in performance, the Falcons drafted Penix in Round 1. No matter what, this QB room is in far superior condition to before when relying on Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota and Taylor Heinicke.
The number one reason we want to target this offense is its talented skill players paired with a massive QB upgrade. However, we shouldn't dismiss the schematic advantages the Rams have enjoyed over the years, which brings us back to Robinson.
One major difference between the Rams and Falcons was *who* they put in motion. The Rams got their top playmakers Cooper Kupp (22%) and Puka Nacua (17%) on the move well above the league average of 9% last year, whereas Smith kept Drake London (3%) stationary. Jonnu Smith (15%) and Bijan Robinson (15%) enjoyed the highest motion rates on the Falcons in 2023. Come on, man.
Another edge we should see for London and Pitts is more playing time. Smith's player utilization was baffling. Excluding games with injuries last season, London's 89% route participation and Kyle Pitts' 77% were below the league averages for players of their caliber, while Kupp (98%) and Nacua (94%) rarely left the field.
London has already proven to be a high-end target earner, with a 25% target rate over his first two seasons. Pairing his talent with improved quarterback play, more playing time and scheme advantages leads to a WR1-level fantasy forecast. He comes in as the No. 9 WR in my projections.
London is criminally underpriced in ESPN and Yahoo formats. He is one of my favorite targets in Round 3 when using our Mock Draft Simulator, which allows you to customize settings for your league scoring.
Pitts has a 20% target rate over his first three seasons and projects as my No. 6 TE in this vastly improved Falcons aerial attack.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints were one of the most unimaginative offenses in the NFL last year, rarely dialing up the cheat codes that help pass catchers.
- Motion at the snap: 31% (30th)
- Play action: 14% (32nd)
- Trick look: 6% (21st)
Klint Kubiak will take over the play-calling duties in New Orleans. Kubiak showed an affinity for jamming the cheat code buttons as the Vikings' offensive coordinator in 2022 and the 49ers passing game coordinator in 2023.
- Motion at the snap: 71% with the 49ers (2nd)
- Trick look: 10% with the 49ers (5th)
- Two-WR sets: 49% with the 49ers (3rd)
- Play action: 29% with the Vikings (10th)
Kubiak used two-WR formations less often (22%) with the Vikings, but looking at the Saints depth chart, I lean toward something more like the 49ers. New Orleans doesn't have a strong WR3 option, but they have multiple TEs they want to involve and two fullbacks on the roster.
It is also worth noting that Derek Carr is one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL who has been worse on play-action passes than non-play-action passes. If Carr prefers to avoid play-action and more under-center reps (Kubiak led the league in 2022), the team might have to turn to motion concepts to add value.
Predicting how this will all unfold is a fool's errand. However, the big takeaway is that Kubiak has a history in all four categories. Maybe they implement all four, or maybe only one or two, but the bottom line is that we should see an improved scheme in Bayou Country.
Chris Olave has a compelling 26% target rate over his first three seasons and should be the centerpiece of an offense without much competition for looks. In this new-look Saints offense, Olave projects as a top-12 WR.
While Rashid Shaheed doesn't have the same target-earning profile as Olave, he averaged 12 PPG with a 20% target share in nine contests where he reached 70% route participation over the past two seasons. I project Shaheed as the clear-cut No. 2, making him one of my favorite WR4 targets later in drafts.
Honorable mentions
- Chargers: The Bolts project for a significant downturn in pass attempts under Jim Harbaugh, but they have a high-quality quarterback in Justin Herbert and Greg Roman takes over as the play-caller. Roman ranked sixth in motion, first in in-play action and fourth in trick-look plays from 2019 to 2022 with the Ravens. If the Chargers had proven high-end weapons for Herbert, I would be more bullish, but there is a chance Joshua Palmer and Ladd McConkey offset volume issues via efficiency.
- Steelers: Arthur Smith has been a whipping boy for fantasy managers over the past few seasons, but he has done some encouraging things from a scheme perspective. During his three years with the Falcons, Smith ranked fourth in motion, second in play action and second in two-WR sets. Russell Wilson looks like a shell of himself, but he should be an upgrade over Ridder, Mariota and Heinicke. That gives the Steelers offense a chance to surprise. George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth might not get the motion treatment we want (see Falcons section above), but a significant boost from better QB play and play-action passing is in the range of outcomes.
