In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bud Light:
 

Be bold and stand by it. Don’t dip your toes in the water. Dive in and live with the results.

That’s the theme when it comes to playoff fantasy football when you’re playing in the CHOPionship.

Fill out the NFL bracket with how you predict the playoffs will go and build the team that way. 

If you have the Ravens and Eagles making it to the Super Bowl, build your teams with those players. Getting players from different teams won’t work. Spreading the roster with multiple teams means losing players early and getting one to two games. 

While Puka Nacua is one of the top wide receivers in the playoffs, if the Rams play one game, he isn’t as valuable as a lower-ranked receiver who could play two to four games. If you prefer a draft format with free agent pickups, the Guilloteenie is the way to go, but the best is to do both.

If you have never played in Guillotine LeaguesTM, now is the time to jump in. We have you covered with several articles to help with strategy and preparation. There are different price points, including no entry fee, and plenty of options to choose from.


Freedman’s how-to guide on winning the CHOPionship.

Recapping 2024: Lessons from … Malik Nabers??

Watercooler: Where will Russell Wilson land in 2025?

🍻 Get Stocked Up for Game Day Now

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

 

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

🪓 Matthew’s NFL postseason rankings are sharp as a Guillotine.

🎲 Betting on Russell Wilson to end up in Vegas? Not so fast …

🏆 These players put our teams on their backs this season. Thank you for your service.

😬 Bad news for this contender ahead of Wild Card Weekend. Which WR will step up?

🍋 Is Tyreek Hill washed? It’s time for a hard conversation.

🫣💸 When cooterdoodle talks scared money, we say: Salmagundi!

😬 LOSER! Yup, time to pay up those fantasy football punishments.

What We Learned From The 2024 Fantasy Football Season

By Dwain McFarland

Every offseason, I spend an inordinate amount of time researching and tweaking my process, focusing on the data points that best predict future success. This process also includes knowing which data to ignore or not overfactor.

The journey begins with a 30,000-foot overview of what I got right and wrong in the previous season. However, the key to this activity is thinking about the why. Is there something actionable we can use to improve or questions we should further investigate in the offseason?

We want a process that helps us get things right more often than not over time—always knowing that variance and luck (which we must also leverage and embrace) play a massive role in any one game, week, or season.

Today, we will focus on what I got right based on the players I touted and drafted the most in 2024. Next week, we will break down what I got wrong.

⭐️ Malik Nabers | WR | Giants

The Rookie Super Model loved Nabers, but we can keep things even more straightforward than that by focusing on wide receivers drafted in the top 6 picks of the NFL Draft. Since 2011, 10 rookies have gone inside the top 6, and those who played at least 12 games averaged 14.5 points per game.

NFL teams are good at evaluating the wide receiver position when it comes to the elite draft capital options. Nabers didn't disappoint, ranking among the league leaders in many of the most predictive data points for the position.

  • Utilization Score: 9.0 (2nd)
  • Targets: 35% (1st)
  • Air yards: 46% (3rd)

Marvin Harrison offered a similar profile to Nabers, which is a cautionary tale. However, their fantasy draft prices were vastly different. Harrison was a second-round pick in most formats, creating a challenging path for upside. Nabers was a round-six selection on ESPN (64) and Yahoo (69).

✍️ Lesson for 2025

High-end NFL Draft picks at the wide receiver position continue to make profitable targets in fantasy. However, there are limitations to how high we should push them in fantasy drafts. Roughly 40% have scored enough points to pay off a Round 2 fantasy selection since 2011.

5 MORE LESSONS FROM 2024

5 Ideal QB Landing Spots in NFL Draft 2025: Where will Shedeur Sanders land?

By Matthew Freedman

With the 2024 NFL regular season over, we're about to turn our 2025 NFL Draft content up to 11 a la Spın̈al Tap, and let me tell you something: It's harder than you'd think to find an "n" with an umlaut above it and an "i" without a dot.

In this article—the first in a series—I'm highlighting my tentative ideal landing spots for the top 5 QBs on my prospect big board.

There's still lots of time for my evaluation of these QBs to change, but right now this is how I rank them—and here's where I'd like to see my top 5 go in the draft (in the general range where I think they'll be selected).

1.03—Giants: Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

Let's say that the Titans sign a veteran QB in free agency—someone like Sam Darnold—and then say to themselves, "Let's get the guy in this class who has a chance to turn into the NFL's version of Shohei Ohtani." So they take WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado) at No. 1.

And then let's say that the Browns—because they've invested so much into QB Deshaun Watson—decide to give him one more year to prove himself and also decide to help him out by drafting an offensive playmaker. So they take WR Tetairoa McMillan.

In that case, Sanders would fall down to No. 3, where the Giants—with new HC Deion Sanders—would take the No. 1 QB in the class.

Is this a good landing spot for Sanders?

MORE IDEAL QB LANDING SPOTS FOR THE NFL DRAFT

Happy Friday! Let’s kick off by giving you the answer to yesterday’s question—With the Broncos snapping their post-season drought, which team now has the longest active playoff drought in the NFL?

A: The Jets (oof.)

Now … let’s get into today’s Fantasy Life Trivia question!

Q: Joe Milton came off the bench for the Patriots following an injury to Drake Maye and racked up 241 passing yards and a touchdown in an upset win over the Bills. Who was the last QB drafted on Day 3 to throw for at least 200 yards and a score in a win as a rookie?