This year, Freedman's Favorites will be different: It must be.

For the betterment of myself, my editors, and the readers, the Fantasy Life powers that be have mandated a word limit.

I won't tell you what it is—but I want you to know I intend to go over it every week.

Every. Single. Matthew. Freedman. Week.

That's my promise to you.

Still, this piece will be shorter (and presumably thus friendlier to the readers) than it has been previously.

Even so, it will in spirit be much as it has been for almost the past decade.

Originally, this was an in-depth breakdown of as many fantasy-relevant players as I could cover, published in four separate weekly posts (one for each skill-position group) focused mainly on daily fantasy.

Now, however, I have consolidated everything into one piece, broadened the scope so it’s applicable to all fantasy formats, and narrowed my focus to players I like.

With this approach, I hope you get 80% of the actionable value you would’ve gotten in previous seasons with a 20% time investment. That feels like a win for everyone (especially the editors)—and hopefully if you read this piece regularly you'll win consistently.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 1

Here are my preliminary Week 1 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination)…

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in DFS.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday afternoon), any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 5:30 pm ET on Tuesday, Sept. 3, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 QBs

Josh Allen (Bills) vs. Cardinals

  • Bills: -6
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 27.25

Last year didn't go as planned for Josh Allen, who lost OC Ken Dorsey (dismissed) after Week 10 and finished the season No. 2 with 18 INTs.

And yet Allen still balled out, ranking No. 3 in QBR (69.7, per ESPN) and No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.145, per RBs Don’t Matter). For the season, he was the No. 1 fantasy producer (24.2 FPPG). He was still very much his usual productive self.

In just nine games with new OC Joe Brady last year, Allen rushed for 424 yards and had a 19% designed-rush rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report). I have an over position on Allen's season-long prop of 480.5 rushing yards logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

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Last year the Cardinals were No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (50.1%), and this year they're being drafted as the No. 32 fantasy defense in high-stakes leagues (per our Fantasy Life ADP Tool).

The Bills lead all teams this week with their implied total (27.25).

Jordan Love (Packers) vs. Eagles (Brazil)

  • Packers:+2.5
  • O/U: 49
  • TT: 23.25

 

Jordan Love came alive in the second half of last season, passing for 2,616 yards and 23 TDs to just three INTs with a 69.7% completion rate in his final 10 games (including playoffs). 

And he could be even better this year thanks to natural development in his second season as a starter and the emerging collection of pass-catching talent around him in WRs Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks and TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.

Last year the Eagles were No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (21.3%, per FTN), and they could struggle with scheme and communication in the secondary early in the season with new DC Vic Fangio and three new secondary starters (CBs Isaiah Rodgers and Quinyon Mitchell, SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson).

Caleb Williams (Bears) vs. Titans

  • Bears: -4.5
  • O/U: 45.5
  • TT: 25

Caleb Williams was the No. 1 dual-threat QB in his 2021 recruitment class, and then he won the Heisman Trophy at USC in 2022 before becoming the No. 1 pick in this year's draft. Williams was an elite prospect, and he did otherworldly things this preseason.

With an elite pass-catching trio in WRs DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, Williams should be an impact rookie.

The Titans probably won't finish No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (48.8%) again this year, but I imagine the secondary with three new starters (CBs L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie and FD Quandre Diggs) will take time to come together under new DC Dennard Wilson.

The Dropback

Jalen Hurts (Eagles -2.5, TT: 25.75) vs. Packers (Brazil): Hurts was No. 2 last year with 0.71 fantasy points per dropback. 

Kyler Murray (Cardinals +6, TT: 21.25) at Bills: As a road underdog, Murray is 16-6-2 ATS (37.2% ROI) and 13-11 ML (65.7% ROI, per Action Network).

Jayden Daniels (Commanders +3.5, TT: 20) at Buccaneers: I am maximally invested with bets on Daniels to win OROY, to pass for over 3,025.5 yards, and to rush for over 525.5 yards. 

Jared Goff (Lions -3.5, TT: 27) vs. Rams: “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers -3.5, TT: 23.5) vs. Commanders: Last year, the Commanders were No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.5).

Matthew Stafford (Rams +3.5, TT: 23.5) at Lions: With HC Sean McVay, the Rams in Week 1 are 6-1 ATS (66.0% ROI) and 6-1 ML (52.1% ROI).

Bo Nix (Broncos +6, TT: 18) at Seahawks: The Seahawks last year were No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (18.4%).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 RBs

Breece Hall (Jets) at 49ers

  • Jets: +3.5
  • O/U: 43.5
  • TT: 20

Last year Breece Hall had a breakout 1,585-yard, nine-TD campaign after suffering a season-ending knee injury as a rookie. He was especially dynamic after ramping up his usage in the first month, racking up 1,333 scrimmage yards, nine TDs, and a two-point conversion on 191 carries and 85 targets in his final 13 games. 

With his pass-catching skill set and elevated TD potential in a revitalized offense led by QB Aaron Rodgers, Hall could be this year's version of 2020 Alvin Kamara.

The 49ers last season were No. 30 in defensive rush SR (42.3%), and their defensive line has probably gotten worse this offseason with the departures of DTs Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw and EDGEs Chase Young, Clelin Ferrell, and Randy Gregory.

Kenneth Walker (Seahawks) vs. Broncos

  • Seahawks: -6
  • O/U: 42
  • TT: 24

Kenneth Walker—"Ken" to his friends, "Kenny" if ya feelin' nasty—is coming off back-to-back seasons with 1,150-plus scrimmage yards and nine TDs, and now he could be emphasized in an uptempo system under new OC Ryan Grubb.

With his combination of size (211 lbs.) and speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash), Walker is a true home run threat every time he touches the ball.

Last year the Broncos were No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (4.9%), and I don't see why they should be significantly better against the run this year.

As a home favorite of more than a field goal, Walker could dominate touches in the second half of this game.

James Cook (Bills) vs. Cardinals

  • Bills: -6
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 27.25

James Cook flashed last year as a sophomore with 1,567 scrimmage yards and six TDs, and he could be even more productive in 2024 with a full campaign under OC Joe Brady. Once Brady assumed playcalling duties last season in Week 11, Cook went off for 896 scrimmage yards and three TDs on 153 carries and 35 targets with no fewer than 15 touches across nine games (including playoffs).

In Cook’s 10 home games last year—all of them as a favorite—he had 1,033 yards and four TDs.

The Cardinals last season were No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.5).

Jerome Ford (Browns) vs. Cowboys

  • Browns: -2.5
  • O/U: 42
  • TT: 22.25

Jerome Ford was a competent injury fill-in last year for star RB Nick Chubb (knee, PUP), putting up 1,096 yards, nine TDs, and a two-point conversion on 195 carries and 64 targets in his 16 games as the team's No. 1 back (minus Week 1 with Chubb and Week 18, which was meaningless).

Even though Ford has company in the backfield (RBs D'Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong), he should still resume his role as the backfield's top dog with Chubb out for at least Weeks 1-4.  

He could see significant work as a home favorite against the Cowboys, who last year were No. 32 in defensive rush SR (43.6%).

The Checkdown

Bijan Robinson (Falcons -3, TT: 22.75) vs. Steelers: I have a +2000 ticket on Robinson to win OPOY after he "disappointed" last season with "just" 1,463 yards and eight TDs as a rookie.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers -3.5, TT: 23.5) vs. Commanders: Among all RBs last year, White was No. 1 with 823 snaps, which he leveraged into 1,539 yards and nine TDs.

De'Von Achane (Dolphins -3, TT: 26.5) vs. Jaguars: He could be 2009 Chris Johnson given that he had 1,013 yards and 11 TDs on just 107 carries and 41 targets last year in 10 games with double-digit snaps as a rookie.

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs -3, TT: 24.5) vs. Ravens: In last year's AFC Championship, Pacheco had 24 carries and four targets against the Ravens, and now he's without RBs Jerick McKinnon (unsigned) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (mental health, NFI).

Josh Jacobs (Packers +2.5, TT: 23.25) vs. Eagles (Brazil): The Eagles last year were No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (-0.020).

Joe Mixon (Texans -2.5, TT: 25.75) at Colts: The Colts last year were No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.0).

Alvin Kamara (Saints -4.5, TT: 23) vs. Panthers: The Panthers last year were No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.024) and defensive rush DVOA (5.7%).

David Montgomery (Lions -3.5, TT: 27) vs. Rams: In 2023, Montgomery had a league-high 27 carries inside the five-yard line.

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins -3, TT: 26.5) vs. Jaguars: Achane is the guy getting hype in the Dolphins backfield, but Mostert is the one who turned 209 carries and 32 targets into 1,187 yards and an NFL-best 21 TDs in 15 games last year. 

Zack Moss (Bengals -8.5, TT: 24.75) vs. Patriots: Moss looks likely to get the first shot to lead the backfield, and in his 10 games with a snap share of more than 50% with the Colts over the past two seasons he put up 976 yards and five TDs.

Gus Edwards (Chargers -3, TT: 21.75) vs. Raiders: Edwards + OC Greg Roman = Love

Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 WRs

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) at Giants

  • Vikings: -1
  • O/U: 41.5
  • TT: 21.25

Just one year after leading the league with 128 receptions and 1,809 yards receiving in an OPOY campaign, Justin Jefferson did something that was perhaps even more incredible in 2023: He had 100-1,074-5 receiving while playing fully in only eight full games (with two other partial appearances) and catching passes from QBs Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, and Jaren Hall for half the season.

He was especially lethal in his final four games with 30-476-2 receiving on 44 targets after returning from hamstring and chest injuries—and he did all that without starting QB Kirk Cousins, who left this offseason.

The downgrade from Cousins to Sam Darnold is significant, but Jefferson has demonstrated that he can still offer top-tier production with subpar QB play.

Last year the Giants were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.8) and CBs Adoree' Jackson (45.9) and Deonte Banks (48.6) both had poor coverage grades (per PFF).

Davante Adams (Raiders) at Chargers

  • Raiders: +3.5
  • O/U: 40.5
  • TT: 18.75

As I noted in my piece on 11 stats from 2023 that matter for 2024, Adams last year was No. 1 with a 79% WOPR.

"WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

With his elite usage, Adams amassed 1,144 yards receiving despite playing in an offense with poor QB play, and I expect him to be similarly involved in the 2024 Raiders offense, which should perform better with QB Gardner Minshew.

I like Adams to go over his season-long prop of 1,000.5 receiving yards, and I like him even more to go off this week given that he has 34-494-4 receiving on 54 targets in four games against the division-rival Chargers since joining the Raiders in 2022.

Last year the Chargers were No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+5.6).

Puka Nacua (Rams) at Lions

  • Rams: +3.5
  • O/U: 50.5
  • TT: 23.5

Puka Nacua (knee) missed most of August with an injury, but he returned to full practice last week and should play without limitation in Week 1.

Last year he had one of the greatest rookie pass-catching campaigns ever with 105-1,486-6 receiving on 160 targets (adding 12-89-0 rushing), and this season he could be even better as a sophomore.

He has an A+ matchup against the Lions: Last year he was No. 12 with 122.8 AirYAC per game, and the Lions were No. 1 with 323.5 AirYAC allowed per game (per Buy Low Sports).

DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs. Packers (Brazil)

  • Rams: +3.5
  • O/U: 50.5
  • TT: 23.5

Since his 2021 rookie season, DeVonta Smith has been productive (3,178 yards receiving) and efficient (9.0 yards per target), and he's always on the field. Last year he had a league-high 98% route rate.

Despite playing alongside star WR A.J. Brown, Smith has averaged 124 targets over the past two seasons, and he could see more in 2024 if the offense plays up to its potential under new OC Kellen Moore.

The Packers last year were No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (48.7%), and with top CB Jaire Alexander likely to match up most with Brown, Smith should run more than half his routes against CB Eric Stokes, who has allowed 11.1 yards per target over the past two seasons.

Tyler Lockett (Seahawks) vs. Broncos

  • Seahawks: -6
  • O/U: 42
  • TT: 24

Tyler Lockett last season failed to have 1,000 scrimmage yards or 8.0 yards per target for the first time in a half decade. His 79-894-5 receiving on 122 targets wasn't terrible, but it wasn't up to his usual standard. Turning 32 years old later this month, Lockett might be hitting the age cliff. 

But he should be fresh entering Week 1, and the Seahawks offense could be more explosive in 2024 with new OC Ryan Grubb.

The Broncos last season were No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (33.6%), and if teammate WR DK Metcalf draws shadow coverage from top CB Pat Surtain then Lockett could run the majority of his routes against CB Riley Moss, a second-year special teamer-turned-starter with 21 NFL coverage snaps to his name.

The Deep Route

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins -3, TT: 26.5) vs. Jaguars: Hill is the only player in NFL history with two seasons of 1,700 yards receiving—and he's gotten them in back-to-back years since joining the Dolphins.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers -3.5, TT: 23.5) vs. Commanders: Evans has an NFL-record 10 consecutive seasons of 1,000 yards receiving, and last year he had an NFL-high 13 TDs through the air.

Cooper Kupp (Rams +3.5, TT: 23.5) at Lions: CB Amik Robertson could struggle given that he has played most of his career on the perimeter and is transitioning to a full-time slot role.

Malik Nabers (Giants +1, TT: 20.25) vs. Vikings: HC Brian Daboll has assumed offensive playcalling duties and as an underdog is 19-10-1 ATS (24.6% ROI) and 12-17-1 ML (19.9% ROI).

Amari Cooper (Browns -2.5, TT: 22.25) vs. Cowboys: "If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us shall we not revenge?"

DJ Moore (Bears -4.5, TT: 25) vs. Titans: Moore is coming off a career-best 1,385-yard, nine-touchdown season … and now he finally has the best QB of his career.

Terry McLaurin (Commanders +3.5, TT: 20) at Buccaneers: McLaurin has four straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons … and now he finally has the best QB of his career.

Tank Dell (Texans -2.5, TT: 25.75) at Colts: If you don't have a bet on Dell to lead the league in receiving at +10000, are you even alive?

Chris Godwin (Buccaneers -3.5, TT: 23.5) vs. Commanders: After playing outside last year, Godwin is now back in the slot, where he'll face rookie CB Mike Sainristil in his NFL debut.

Jayden Reed (Packers +2.5, TT: 23.25) vs. Eagles (Brazil): Last year the Eagles were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (36.7).

Courtland Sutton (Broncos +6, TT: 18) at Seahawks: The Broncos will need to throw as road dogs, and Sutton is now sans WRs Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick, and pass-catching RB Samaje Perine.

Curtis Samuel (Bills -6, TT: 27.25) vs. Cardinals: Samuel (turf toe) has a shot to play in Week 1, and he had a career-best 1,051-yard campaign when he was last with OC Joe Brady.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 TEs

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) vs. Cardinals

  • Bills: -6
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 27.25

Last year as a rookie, Dalton Kincaid flashed with 73-673-2 receiving on 91 targets—and now he has an opportunity to emerge as the No. 1 pass catcher for the Bills with WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, leaving 241 targets vacated in their absence.

With his ability to line up all across the formation—in the slot (389 snaps last year), inline (247), and out wide (140)—Kincaid has the scheme versatility that should earn him designed touches each game.

The Cardinals last season were No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (21.1%).

Zack Ertz (Commanders) at Buccaneers

  • Commanders: +3.5
  • O/U: 43.5
  • TT: 20

With the recent departure of WR Jahan Dotson, the veteran Ertz has a shot to serve as the No. 2 pass catcher for the Commanders, especially since he's familiar with the offense from his time on the Cardinals together with OC Kliff Kingsbury.

Turning 34 years old this season, Ertz is a fragile catch-and-fall specialist at this point, but if ever there were a time to play him it's Week 1—and he was moderately productive in his one full season with Kingsbury in 2022, when he had 47-406-4 receiving on 69 targets in 10 games.

The Buccaneers last year were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.0).

The Hot Route

Trey McBride (Cardinals +6, TT: 21.25) at Bills: SS Jordan Poyer and FS Micah Hyde aren't walking through that door. 

Kyle Pitts (Falcons -3, TT: 22.75) vs. Steelers: 2024 is the answer to the question posed by the Smiths in the 1984 hit, "How Soon Is Now?"

Taysom Hill (Saints -4.5, TT: 23) vs. Panthers: Hill had 74 yards on nine carries and two targets in his one game last year against DC Ejiro Evero's defense.

Noah Fant (Seahawks -6, TT: 24) vs. Broncos: "Vengeance is in my heart, death in my hand." Last year the Broncos were dead last in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (27.6).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)