Week 1 is finally here–let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. The Anthony Richardson experience

The second-year talent only played four games in 2023, but man oh man were they spectacular … in fantasy land. Overall, Richardson ripped off 20.9 and 29.6 fantasy points in his only two full starts, and he also reached 17.7 points in Week 2 vs. the Texans … on just 18 snaps!

That said: Richardson was a bit uneven as a passer to put it nicely. To put it meanly? He sucked. His 61.7% completion percentage ranked 44th among 49 QBs, and his completion percentage OVER expected was a brutal -7.7%–only P.J. Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Taylor Heinicke, and Trevor Siemian were worse.

Fans were treated to more of the same during Richardon's lone extended preseason appearance. The initial TD drive was cool, but his ensuing pick-six and three punts were not. 6.14 yards per attempt against mostly Bengals backups didn't instill a bunch of confidence in fantasy faithful, and accordingly, his average draft position (ADP) dropped by nearly a full round (56.5 to 65.7) from August 1 to present day over at FFPC.

Here's the thing: Richardson doesn't need to be anything close to a good NFL passer to be a great fantasy football QB.

Just look at the success of some of the league's very worst passers in Tim Tebow (QB8 in Weeks 7-17, 2011) and Taysom Hill (QB6 Weeks 11-14, 2020, and QB7 in Weeks 13-15, 2021) back in the day. Each of the top three highest-scoring fantasy QBs from last season racked up at least 30% of their production on the ground–-Richardson was at 48%!

Colts head coach Shane Steichen likened the idea of limiting Richardon's rushing volume to telling Steph Curry to shoot fewer 3-pointers, so it's safe to say that facet of his game isn't going anywhere inside an offense led by the same guy who helped popularize the tush push. His Week 1 matchup against the Texans isn't an easy one, but we simply don't have a history of QBs who can push for double-digit carries per game busting in fantasy land.

If you drafted Richardson, you're starting him, and don't be surprised if the 22-year-old QB finds the end zone on the ground at least once against a Houston defense that allowed a league-high seven rushing scores to opposing signal-callers last season (including two to Richardson himself).

Our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings are LIVE! Check them out before setting your first lineups of the season!

2. Welcome to the NFL, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels!

The No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks from the 2024 NFL Draft will be making their respective NFL debuts against the Titans and Buccaneers.

The former signal-caller has already been named a team captain and finds himself surrounded by one of the game's best WR trios. While it'd make sense if Williams experiences some growing pains to some extent, he flashed some serious high-end ability in limited preseason action and should immediately be treated as a top-12 option at the position against a Titans defense that could deal with some early-season bumps as they adjust to a new system themselves.

And then there's Daniels, who certainly made a few cool plays himself in August, but also wasn't exactly asked to take many "real" dropbacks. Such is life in a Kliff Kingsbury-led offense that relies so heavily on RPOs and quick passing, although that didn't stop a young Kyler Murray from largely thriving in fantasy land from day one.

Consider: Only the Saints (s/o Taysom Hill) utilized more designed QB runs than the Cardinals during the 2019 to 2022 seasons. 15 of 16 QBs to rack up 125-plus carries in a season ever went on to post top-12 numbers in fantasy points per game–including 11 top-five finishes–and Fantasy Life season-long projections have Daniels right at the edge of that number with 122.

Don't expect the Commanders to vie for an NFC East crown this season, but Daniels has the archetype of a QB capable of balling out in fantasy land despite potential real-life struggles. He's an instant top-12 option ahead of a matchup with sneaky-shootout potential should the Commanders' reigning 32nd-ranked scoring defense fail to make meaningful improvements.

3. The Achilles has healed

Both Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins saw their 2023 campaigns cut short by the dreaded Achilles tear, but modern science has both sitting pretty as Week 1 starters just one short year later.

Sadly: Neither is exactly starting 2024 with anything close to resembling a get-right spot:

  • Jets vs. 49ers: The 49ers allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last season while pressuring opposing passers on a whopping 39.5% of their dropbacks, the seventh-highest mark in the league. Overall, Joe Burrow (283-3-0) was the only QB to throw for more than two TDs against this group last season–something Rodgers himself has done just once since 2021.
     
  • Falcons vs. Steelers: While the Steelers "only" allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs in 2023, the T.J. Watt-led pass rush produced the league's seventh-quickest average time to pressure (2.42) and wound up posting the NFL's third-highest quick pressure rate (under 2.5 seconds) behind only the Cowboys and Browns. Not ideal for a 36-year-old veteran who already wasn't exactly known for his mobility.

Both the revamped Jets (No. 5) and still-sturdy Falcons (No. 6) boast two of PFF's highest-ranked offensive lines entering 2024–we should have a VERY good idea of whether or not A-aron and Kirk-O-Chainz will have the sort of protection necessary to regain the sort of fantasy goodness that has been commonplace throughout each of their careers.

Speaking of teams that attempted to makeover their offense this offseason…

4. Did the Jaguars REALLY improve this offense?

They certainly tried! There are three new expected starters inside the league's reigning 13th-ranked scoring offense:

  • WR Gabe Davis: The Bills' playoff hero signed a three-year, $39-million deal to help replace Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. While Davis' PR team would make you believe we're looking at a top-five WR, the 25-year-old veteran does indeed provide a boost in the run-blocking department and should help in the red zone inside of an offense that had more than a few near-miss end-zone opportunities last season. 
     
  • WR Brian Thomas: The 2024 NFL Draft's 23rd overall pick combines a big-bodied frame (6'3", 209 pounds) with the sort of speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash) to run past corners in a hurry. Hell, Thomas' 10-yard split was a mere 0.01 seconds slower than Xavier Worthy … while carrying an extra 44 pounds.
  • C Mitch Morse: PFF's 20th-highest graded center (65.9) represents a rather huge upgrade over Luke Fortner, who ranked 44th (45.6) among 45 qualified players at the position last season.

Throw in the return of LT Cam Robinson, who missed eight games due to injury throughout 2023, and it does seem possible that the league's reigning 30th-ranked supporting cast will improve in a major way.

One of the cooler stats I came across all offseason courtesy of the great Ben Baldwin: Trevor Lawrence was third in EPA per dropback last season after adjusting for drops and pass blocking among other factors.

These mishaps are hardly guaranteed to be fully corrected in 2024; just realize T-Law should have a decent chance to better live up to his "generational" label this season and beyond with a little more help from his friends.

First up: A Dolphins defense dealing with all kinds of turnover due to injuries and free agency. Don't be surprised if the scoreboard operator gets plenty of work in this one–only Lions-Rams (51) has a higher game total than Dolphins-Jags (49.5) at the moment.

5. Workhorse RBs in new homes

There was a LOT of turnover at the RB position this offseason, as plenty of free agency dollars were handed out to guys who have scored an awful lot of fantasy points over the years.

Specifically, the following six RBs will be wearing new colors this season, yet still find themselves inside Fantasy Life's top-24 projected RBs for Week 1:

  • Texans RB Joe Mixon: Projected as the fourth-highest scoring RB of Week 1, Mixon is set to assume the same every-down role that led to Devin Singletary racking up the fourth-most touches in the NFL from Weeks 9 to 18 last season.
     
  • Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: Expected to soak up the vast majority of touches inside a backfield that has been plenty efficient in recent years, albeit hasn't exactly soaked up many fantasy-friendly goal-line opportunities. Consider: Eagles RBs rank 30th in carries from the one-yard line since Jalen Hurts took over in 2021 … but first in rush attempts between the two- and five-yard lines.
     
  • Packers RB Josh Jacobs: Figures to be leaned on more than ever to start the year with AJ Dillon (stinger, IR) out for the season and third-round rookie MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) banged up. Here's to hoping Jacobs, you know, isn't still one of the league's single-least efficient RBs.
     
  • Vikings RB Aaron Jones: Turning 30 in December, Jones isn't a spring chicken these days, but the man still looked damn good with the football in his hands during his final five games of last season–and now he gets a Giants defense that allowed the third-most rushing TDs to opposing RBs in 2023.
     
  • Ravens RB Derrick Henry: Leaves a Titans offensive line that ranked 30th in yards BEFORE contact per carry over the last two seasons for a Ravens group that has finished first or second on said leaderboard in each of the past five seasons. Henry and Lamar in the same backfield is borderline erotic, although it remains to be seen if the O-line will still be dominant considering they must replace *three* starters.
     
  • Giants RB Devin Singletary: Enters an offense that tied the Buccaneers for the most-willing unit to feed their lead RB at least 80% of the offense's snaps last season. Still, the sledding could be tough early against a Vikings defense that was one of just five units to allow less than one rush yard before contact per carry in 2023.

Hell, guys like Bears RB D'Andre Swift, Titans RB Tony Pollard, and Bengals RB Zack Moss should also see plenty of work and crack Week 1's top-31 highest-projected backs. The grass usually isn't greener on the other side for RBs changing teams in free agency, but then again volume is a helluva drug in fantasy land, and it sure looks like these guys will have plenty of it.

6. Chargers and Cowboys RBs: What's going on?

I sure would like to know, as the former group looks poised to run the football an awful lot under the newfound leadership of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, while the latter offense has peeled off back-to-back top-10 finishes in expected RB PPR points per game.

In Los Angeles:

  • Gus Edwards: Profiles as the starter based on the financial allocation and training camp reports, although the rising sixth-year veteran has never reached 200 carries in a season and is a fairly one-dimensional early-down grinder (just 30 receptions in 69 career games).
     
  • J.K. Dobbins: The history of RBs coming back from Achilles tears is pretty brutal, but then again, maybe modern science has improved the outlook. That's what fantasy hopefuls need to rely on here, because Dobbins' $50,000 in guaranteed money certainly isn't the sort of financial investment that we can overly rely on.
     
  • Kimani Vidal: He's fast (4.46 40-yard dash) with theoretical three-down size (5'8". 213 pounds) and even managed to post a 92-700-1 receiving line in four years at Troy. While a Week 1 role is unlikely, college football scholars are BIG fans, so it's not the worst idea to reserve a bench spot in case Gus and/or Dobbins fail to run away with the lead jobs.

As for the Cowboys:

  • Ezekiel Elliott: The franchise's No. 3 all-time leading rusher is back to supply some short-yardage and pass-pro goodness that should be appreciated more when not tied to a $90 million contract. Still, we're talking about the back-to-back RB43 in Next-Gen Stats' rushing yards over expected; 15-plus weekly touches are FAR from guaranteed.
     
  • Rico Dowdle: Reportedly the frontrunner for the team lead in carries, Dowdle has as good a chance as anyone here to really take over the backfield–especially if his top-10 marks in yards per reception (8.5) and yards per route run (1.35) persist with a larger role.
     
  • Deuce Vaughn: The pint-sized second-year back handled just 30 touches in 2023, but could perhaps be relied on more due to the shallow depth chart at hand.
     
  • Dalvin Cook: Looked all kinds of washed on his way to averaging a career-low 3.2 yards per carry with the Jets last season, but again: Have you seen this depth chart?

Personally, I've put most of my chips on Dobbins and Dowdle in redraft leagues over the past few weeks; either way, the eventual leaders will be heavily featured in Week 2 waiver wire content across the industry. Don't be afraid to get ahead of the game with these two backs among others before the weekend.

7. Target-hog WR1s … with QB questions

Fantasy Life Projections attempt to be conservative when looking at targets: No since WR is projected to rack up double-digit pass-game opportunities despite the reality that several inevitably will.

Still, the top-20-or-so options mostly include the same highly drafted players we've been going after in the early rounds of fantasy drafts over the last few months … with a few notable exceptions.

The following WRs are among the only 22 options projected for at least seven targets this week, yet were priced outside of ESPN's top-50 overall players this offseason:

  • Panthers WR Diontae Johnson: The new No. 1 WR for Bryce Young ranks first in ESPN's "Open Score" WR rating meant to help quantity separation ability since entering the NFL. If old man Adam Thielen went 103-1,014-4 on 137 targets last year, what is Johnson capable of with a little help from the Injury Gods?
     
  • Commanders WR Terry McLaurin: Has dealt with one sad excuse for a QB after another throughout his five-year career, but suddenly has hope in the form of Jayden Daniels inside an offense with essentially zero competition in the entire WR room.
     
  • Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins: Remains to be seen if Nuk will be able to make it back for Week 1 after straining his knee on July 31, but if healthy? Don't be surprised if the 32-year-old veteran continues to demand targets–just like he did on his way to posting an elite 28% target share in 2023.
     
  • Steelers WR George Pickens: Similar to McLaurin, Pickens deserves a lot of credit for putting up the numbers he has despite dealing with anyone's idea of subpar QB play. This variable isn't exactly guaranteed to improve this season, but the departures of Diontae Johnson and Allen Robinson vacate a whopping 136 targets from the equation.

Earning targets is only half the equation when dealing with mediocre QBs; just realize these talented WRs *should* at least have plenty of chances to make good things happen this season.

8. What are the biggest on-paper mismatches in Week 1?

Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y."

The initial data set only includes 2023 numbers, so take some of the analysis with a bit of a grain of salt when looking at teams that overhauled a particular side of the ball (especially offenses that switched QBs this offseason). Things will get clearer as we get more and more 2024 info.

Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.

  • Explosive passing offense: The Texans, Rams, Dolphins, Buccaneers, and 49ers passing games appear to be set up quite well. However, the Panthers, Jets, Chiefs, Giants, and Bengals aren't looking too hot at the moment ahead of their tough respective matchups.
     
  • Explosive running offense: The Cardinals, Vikings, Bills, Dolphins, Seahawks, and 49ers all look poised to do good things on the ground this week. Meanwhile, the Jaguars, Raiders, and Rams in particular look to have their work cut out for them.
     
  • Pressure: The Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Falcons, and Buccaneers look ready to provide plenty of clean pockets this week, while the Jets, Titans, Browns, and 49ers could be facing more pressure than they'd prefer.
     
  • Yards before contact per carry: RBs from the Ravens, Bills, Lions, and Eagles might have more clear runways than usual in Week 1, but the opposite is true for the Titans, Jaguars, Commanders, and Giants.
     
  • Pass yards per dropback: The best setup passing attacks look like the Dolphins, Rams, and 49ers this week, while the worst look like the Panthers, Cardinals, and Jets.
     
  • EPA per play: GB-PHI and LAR-DET look like the shootouts of the week. NE-CIN, PIT-ATL, and DAL-CLE look like the defensive slugfests of the week.

9. Ranking every game of the week from a biased entertainment perspective

I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently “bad.”

Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *bad* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.

With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:

  1. BAL-KC: Football is back! Hell yeah!
  2. ARZ-BUF: Josh. Kyler. New weapons. Points!
  3. GB-PHI: Football Friday night on the cock app. How can you not be romantic about this?
  4. DET-LAR: Stafford-Goff rematch. SNF. CatJAM halftime show. Sign. Me. Up.
  5. HOU-IND: Stroud-Richardson duel take two.
  6. SF-NYJ: Rodgers-Jets debut take two on MNF.
  7. TEN-CHI: Caleb Williams doing Caleb Williams things.
  8. JAX-MIA: Highest non-primetime game total of Week 1.
  9. WSH-TB: Welcome to the NFL, Jayden Daniels.
  10. DAL-CLE: Defense! Cool!
  11. PIT-ATL: The Arthur Smith Bowl.
  12. LV-LAC: Ew (but Harbaugh is back in the NFL).
  13. MIN-NYG: Sick (but at least the LSU WRs will be fun).
  14. DEN-SEA: Yuck (but Bo Nix debut).
  15. CAR-NO: Gross (but maybe Bryce Young won't be as shitty).
  16. NE-CIN: Will the Patriots score 10 points?

10. Five bold predictions for Week 1:

Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding five players I believe could out-perform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out–they wouldn't be bold otherwise–but will that stop me? Hell no!

Without further adieu: Let's get weird.

  • Rashid Shaheed: The clear-cut No. 2 WR in New Orleans is a certified baller and looks like a solid candidate to make a legit year-three leap. I'm calling for a 5-115-1 receiving line against a Panthers defense that doesn't figure to make life nearly as tough on opposing QBs without the services of Brian Burns this season.
     
  • Jaleel McLaughlin: Quite possibly THE pass-down back for Sean Payton, McLaughlin is my pick for the cover athlete of Week 2 Waiver Wire articles across the industry. I'm calling for 10-55-1 rushing and 6-60-0 receiving lines against a Seahawks defense still learning a new scheme.
     
  • Kenneth Walker: Might be one of the league's few true workhorse backs. Walker has always possessed tantalizing big-play ability, and he gets a Broncos defense that allowed the third-most runs of 20-plus yards last season. Prediction: 125-plus yards and two TDs for the rising third-year stud.
     
  • Jameson Williams: Set to play his first career NFL game in September (!), the training camp MVP looks like the clear-cut No. 3 pass-game option inside the league's reigning 5th-ranked scoring offense. Expect the Rams to take a bit to adjust to life without Aaron Donald–-I like Jamo putting together a BOOM in Week 1 with a 6-130-1 performance on Sunday night football.
     
  • Diontae Johnson: A date with Marshon Lattimore and the Saints is no joke, but you know what tends to cure a bad matchup? Volume–and Johnson has a chance to rack up more of it than most WRs. I like Bryce Young's new-and-improved target-hog WR1 to convert double-digit targets into something close to an 8-111-1 receiving line.

Other Cool Sh*t for Week 1

  • Newlook Chiefs passing game: A constant drumbeat throughout training camp was the Chiefs' desire to get back to slinging the rock downfield. They brought in Hollywood Brown (shoulder, out) and the fastest man alive Xavier Worthy to help achieve this, but standing in their way is a Ravens secondary that allowed the league's lowest explosive pass play rate in 2023.
     
  • What version of Stefon Diggs are we getting?: A hot start was quickly undone during the second half of last season, as Diggs couldn't even outproduce Khalil Shakir in yards (462 vs. 422) despite having more than twice as many targets (80 vs. 37) during the team's final 10 games. Is he washed? Or will C.J. Stroud be the tide that rises all boats? Not sure if that analogy makes sense, but yeah, Stroud is really good, so maybe Diggs still will be too. Cool? Cool.
     
  • Death, taxes, Will Levis trying crazy sh*t: No QB had a higher percentage of their dropbacks result in either a big-time throw or turnover-worthy play than Levis last season. The Titans better hope he starts cutting down on the latter occurrences, but for better and (mostly) worse: The mayo-fanatic is a lot of fun to watch.
     
  • What will this Dolphins backfield look like?: Head coach Mike McDaniel has remained steadfast that this will be a hot-hand approach … so wouldn't it make sense if the NFL's all-time single-season leader in yards per carry wins out more times than not? Ultimately, the answer to which RB to start from the league's reigning No. 1 ranked offense in expected RB PPR points per game is probably just, "Yes."
     
  • Is Gardner Minshew good at football?: Only Aidan O'Connell had a worse completion percentage over expected last season, so relatively speaking, not really. It'd be a lot cooler if he was though–particularly for the sake of all the talented pass-catchers existing in this Raiders offense.
     
  • Could Bucky Irving be a real threat to Rachaad White?: White's porous rushing efficiency numbers haven't been a big deal over the past two seasons because nobody else in Tampa has fared any better, but what happens if Irving changes that? I'm intrigued–especially behind a seemingly new and improved offensive front.
     
  • Is Blake Corum legit competition for Kyren Williams?: Punt return gate has scared the living shit out of the fantasy community, although Williams obviously remains the team's lead back. The question is whether or not fantasy's reigning RB2 is set to dominate touches, or if a more evenly split committee could be on the way after the team used a third-round pick on the Michigan man.
     
  • What if Deshaun Watson doesn't suck?: Because he certainly has in 12 games with the Browns over the past two seasons, yet still has notched a top-12 fantasy finish in a higher percentage of his starts (42%) than guys like Jared Goff (38%) and Tua Tagovailoa (37%). Another example of just how far a decent rushing floor will carry a QB in fantasy land, but seeing anything close to pre-2021 production through the air could make the Browns' franchise QB a waiver wire priority in a hurry considering he's still one of just four QBs to ever average at least 20 fantasy points per game during his career.