In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
It took six weeks, but the Patriots finally capitulated and will start the No. 3 overall pick, Drake Maye, today vs. the Houston Texans—offensive line woes be damned.
The Saints, due to an injury to Derek Carr, will turn to their rookie QB (Spencer Rattler) as well.
For better or worse, that means we’ll get to watch five rookie QBs today.
There are also a few key rookie RBs entering the mix today that you should stash before kickoff. More on those below.
Let’s get to it …
OUT/DOUBTFUL: Jakobi Meyers (ankle), Devin Singletary (groin), Brian Robinson Jr. (knee), Gus Edwards (ankle; IR), Rachaad White (foot), Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Davante Adams, Luke Musgrave
Bucky Irving is a fringe RB1 (our consensus RB15) vs. the Saints today ... Antonio Gibson (RB23) will lead the Patriots this week and should be started in every PPR league … Tyrone Tracy will lose some work to Eric Gray, but he’s a solid RB2 vs. the Bengals in Singletary’s absence … Austin Ekeler gets a nice bump with Robinson out, but beware of Jeremy McNichols. It’ll be a split backfield … Make sure you stash Chargers RB Kimani Vidal. He’s now one J.K. Dobbins injury away from being the lead-back on one of the most run-heavy offenses in football.
GAME-TIME DECISION: Anthony Richardson (oblique), Michael Pittman Jr. (back), Zamir White (groin), Christian Watson (ankle)
Things seem to be trending in the right direction for the Colts but in the wrong direction for White. Be sure to check our inactives page at 11:30 a.m. ET for confirmation.
GOOD TO GO: Joe Mixon (ankle), Jaylen Warren (knee), David Njoku (ankle/knee), James Cook (toe), Khalil Shakir (ankle), Audric Estime (ankle), Kendre Miller
Like Vidal, I’d sneak Estime and Miller onto my rosters where I have room for bench stashes. I would not be surprised to see them earn some touches and become the clear No. 2s on their team in the coming weeks.
For more NFL news, and Week 6 DFS advice, keep on reading …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- James McCool’s Week 6 DFS Advice: His top stack, value, and GPP gem
- Watercooler: Tom Brady makes an investment
Giddy Up, Cowboy(s) …
by James McCool
Week 6 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 6 DraftKings NFL DFS plays, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources.
Top Stack — Dallas Cowboys
While my models at Paydirt DFS have the Ravens as two of the top five stacks, I want to put a slight asterisk around them because their projection is heavily influenced by Lamar Jackson and much less by the stacking pieces. This is fine from a macro POV, but it’s worth noting that in situations like this, it’s better to “skinny stack” (QB+1) instead of full stack.
The reason I want to focus on Dallas for my priority stack this week is that they have the highest median by a couple of points (52.16) and by far the highest top finish rate at 10.10%. They also have one of the best matchups on the board against DET, who is giving up 6.9 fantasy points and 50 yards above average to opposing WRs. Finally, it gives us access to Jake Ferguson and fills the TE position so we don’t have to scramble to pick the best of the worst position.
Combine the raw projections and roster upside with the highest game total on the slate (52.50) and the Cowboys are the top option on a stack filled with good spots.
Value Play — Tony Pollard, RB | TEN ($6,000)
There is a lot to like about Pollard this week, though it’s worth saying that he isn’t going to have an ownership discount. He is well underpriced at $6,000 on DraftKings, as his Utilization Score of 7.96 has him nestled between Joe Mixon ($6,900) and Chuba Hubbard ($6,300) and far above Derrick Henry ($8,000).
His median projection of 16.82 is solid as well, and in the simulations over at Paydirt, he comes up with a 4x rate of 12.80%, the second highest on the slate. The single downside is an ownership projection of 23.06% but with the baselines and the price it is warranted. He’s a great place to start your builds.
GPP Gem — Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI ($8,200)
It’s hard to understate the role that Barkley has right now. He has a 76/65% split of snaps/routes along with 50% of the rush attempts inside the five-yard line, giving him incredible upside in any matchup. What’s more is the matchup this week is with the Browns, who have been as inept as it comes, which leads to a great game script for Barkley to see his rushing attempt ceiling.
The Paydirt simulations have him finishing as the top overall RB a whopping 25.90% of the time, making him a clear priority as a spend-up. He is an awesome base for any GPP, especially when paired with Tony Pollard.
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1:00 p.m. Kickoff
- Houston at New England
- Washington at Baltimore
- Indianapolis at Tennessee
4:05 p.m. Kickoff
- Pittsburgh at Las Vegas
- LA Chargers at Denver
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
📊 Projections for every player on the Sunday slate … great tool to help with lineup decisions.
✍️ Bye weeks and injuries make Week 6 a bit trickier. Your start-sit recommendations.
🚁 The WR going for 100+ & 2 TDs today. Ian ain’t flying scared this year.
🤦 An update on the Davante Adams saga. C’mon.
🏴☠️ Tom Brady is getting in the Raiders business. No, literally.
🌎️ A Super Bowl outside of the U.S? That could be interesting.
🤑 David Montgomery gets paid. Good for him.
