Is it Time for Cooper Kupp in the NFL Divisional Round?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Most single people have been in a situation where there’s a person you keep sending messages to and the responses indicate they aren’t interested. The optimism stays high even though deep down you know it’s not going to change.
That’s how it feels playing Cooper Kupp the last several games. There’s a glimmer of hope for Kupp to return to the games of at least 7 targets—which the Rams wide receiver had in seven of his first nine games—and many keep hoping: “This is the week!”
Over the last four games, it hasn’t happened with Kupp getting 1, 3, 3, and 3 targets. He has 29 receiving yards or fewer in four of the last five games. Matthew Stafford attempted 27 passes last week and looked at Kupp one time. Tight end Tyler Higbee had 5 catches for 58 yards in the first quarter before leaving with a chest injury. Seven players had more targets than Kupp.
Kupp ran 69% of the routes, with the only mark being below that low bar happening in Week 2 when he got hurt. Rams-Vikings wasn’t competitive in the second half, and the Rams utilized 12 personnel more often.
There’s speculation that Kupp could be playing through injury or age is catching up to him. Kupp, 31, isn’t getting open as often and Puka Nacua has become the focal point of the passing game.
The matchup against the Eagles this week isn’t ideal and there could be snow and cold temperatures. Kupp had 8 catches for 60 yards on 11 targets with a touchdown against the Eagles in Week 12—less than two months ago—providing hope for some.
Don’t fall into the trap. Move on and find another player to start.
What Else Is In Today’s Newsletter?
- Watercooler: Mock Draft szn, baby!
- How to go from Guillotine Leagues™ rookie to champion in one season.
- Way-too-Early 2025 Rankings: Bucky Irving is ranked HOW high?!
The Show Goes On ...
Divisional Round Guilloteenie Contests are LIVE.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
👀 Mock Draft Alert … the Raiders draft WHO?!
🤔 After his tremendous season, where is Ian ranking Joe Burrow for the 2025 season?
🫰The only problem with a four-team Guilloteenie draft is that it’s over too quickly. Unless the trash talking is plentiful.
🚫 I will not draft Will Levis again. I will not draft Will Levis again. Chris Allen shares what he got wrong in Fantasy Football 2024.
❤️ Should he or shouldn’t he tell her about his winning fantasy football team on their first date?
How I Beat 17 Experts In a Guillotine League
By Dwain McFarland
This was my first year playing in Guillotine Leagues™ and I'm hooked forever after winning our inaugural Fantasy Life content creator league. Based on what I learned on this championship run, I will outline three simple rules you can use to improve your guillotine skills.
1. Self-scouting is critical to winning a Guillotine League
Self-examination is important in every Fantasy Football league with waiver wires, but it's amplified by the chopping block in Guillotine Leagues.
The first rule about Guillotine Leagues is DON'T GET CHOPPED.
The second rule about Guillotine Leagues is DON'T GET CHOPPED.
The third rule about Guillotine Leagues is that every week, someone MUST GET CHOPPED.
You are fighting for your survival, which means you must be sober-minded about the quality of your team. If your team is weak, you must find a way to survive.
However, we can't be too all-in early. Almost every week, there are superstars cut in Guillotine Leagues. You can't just blow your whole FAAB stack on two names early in the season and expect to have a team strong enough to win in the end.
To illustrate this, let's compare the team I drafted with my team at the end of the season.
Drafted Team (starters in bold):
QB: Joe Burrow, Drake Maye
RB: James Conner, J.K. Dobbins, Rico Dowdle, Bucky Irving, Trey Sermon
WR: Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice, BrIan Thomas, Kalif Raymond
TE: Zach Ertz, Tyler Conklin
Final Team:
QB: Joe Burrow
RB: Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, James Conner
WR: Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, BrIan Thomas, A.J. Brown, Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
TE: George Kittle, Jonnu Smith
Only six of 14 draft selections were on my roster by the championship game. Of course, you can also see how strong these teams must be to win it all. Based on points per game, I had the QB2, RB1, RB9, RB14, RB16, WR3, WR5, WR7, WR12, WR14, WR19, WR20, TE1, and TE4 on the roster.
Guillotine Leagues are a delicate balance between finding a way to survive and laying the foundation to thrive. To navigate these choppy waters (see what I did there?), you must have a process for accurately evaluating the strength of your team.
Signs of a strong team
Averaging 20 to 30 points above the chop line.
Have a replacement RB and WR option to keep you 10 to 20 above the cut line with a starter injury.
Early in the season, when there are 14-plus teams, rostering a backup QB is also worth considering. I rostered a QB2 until the waiver wire accumulated depth at the position.
Have bye-week replacement options for a starting lineup looking two weeks ahead.
Signs of a weak team
Average points are within 10 of the chop line.
One injury away from falling close to the chop line average.
Facing multiple bye-week holes within the next two games.
Multiple key players are facing outlier hard matchups over the next two games. Note: the words multiple and outlier are key! Most matchup talk is noise in Fantasy Football, but there are a handful of teams we want to avoid.
Read on for more on self-scouting, rules No. 2 and No. 3, and a response to Freedman's half-hearted congratulations and whining.
By Paul Charchian
Hi, Adam here again. I was looking at Charch’s Top 50, and there were some rankings where I raised an eyebrow. One was No. 5: Bucky Irving. Those of you who stashed Bucky on draft day or picked him up off the waiver wire know how good he was at the end of the season. You may have a championship trophy on your mantle because of him. But No. 5? I had to know more, so I asked Charch why so high. Here’s his response:
“The eye test tells me that Bucky Irving is as talented as any runner in the league. He demonstrated amazing strength, footwork, elusiveness, and he can catch. But you don't need to take my word for it. Here's some data that supports my case: Among starting runners, Irving ranked 4th-best in yards per carry, 2nd-best in broken-tackle rate, and No. 1 in yards after contact. If Irving gets even 10% better as a sophomore, he can be Fantasy Football's highest-scoring runner next season.”
Here’s Charch’s top 5:
1. Cin WR Ja’Marr Chase: Last season's triple crown winner brings zero downside to 1.01.
2. LAR WR Puka Nacua: From Week 10 forward, only Ja'Marr Chase had more targets.
3. Min WR Justin Jefferson: This ranking assumes that J.J. McCarthy will be a competent starter.
4. Phi RB Saquon Barkley: Even if he drops off by 20% next year, he could lead all runners in fantasy points.
5. TB RB Bucky Irving: Bucky is already in the conversation as the NFL's best runner and he could get better in year two.
For the rest of Charch’s Top 50, read below!
2025 RANKINGS—No. 6 THROUGH No. 50
