Jordan Addison, Xavier Legette Fantasy Football Outlook: Sheesh Report Week 14
- Xavier Legette might have had the sheesh of the year
- Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
- I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)
- The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
- TD! Wait: Flag.
- That's right: Jordan Addison could've had an even bigger day
- Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
Ian Hartitz presents the Week 14 Sheesh Report, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade, with the most heartbreaking plays of the week.
Week 14 has come and gone. We saw 13 NFL games that brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from last week that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh!" I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by a penalty
- Other random shit that managed to tilt fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with an example of the boxscore not always matching what actually went down on the field …
Xavier Legette might have had the sheesh of the year
There was 1:29 left in the 4th quarter. The Panthers were driving. The Eagles were sweating. The dude who bet $3.1 million on Philly's moneyline was freaking the f*ck out.
And that's when rookie WR Xavier Legette suffered one of the sheesh-iest drops of the entire 2024 season.
The potential 32-yard TD wasn't guaranteed to win the game, considering an extra point was needed and Jalen Hurts would have had 44 seconds to get the Eagles in position for a game-winning field goal, but still: Sheesh.
This is sadly not the first time Bryce Young's late-game heroics have still resulted in a loss. In fact, it's the third time in as many weeks:
- vs. Chiefs: 3:21 remaining in 4th. Five plays, 49 yards, game-tying TD and two-point conversion … only for Patrick Mahomes to quickly drive the offense down the field for a game-winning field goal.
- vs. Bucs: 3:05 remaining in 4th. Nine plays, 60 yards, go-ahead TD. Then Young took the offense 25 yards in 4 plays in OT to set up a game-winning field goal … before Chuba Hubbard lost a fumble, leading to Baker Mayfield and Co. instead hitting the walk-off.
- vs. Eagles: 2:58 remaining in 4th. Thirteen plays, 45 yards, go-ahead TD dropped by Legette. Sheesh.
At least Young is indeed starting to live up to the hype that comes with any No. 1 overall draft pick. For that, Panthers fans should be pumped, even if Legette's disappointing performance stood out as one of week's biggest examples of pass catchers leaving plenty of yards on the field …
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: Eight players racked up at least 75 unrealized air yards in Week 14:
- Bills WR Amari Cooper (177)
- Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins (144)
- Panthers WR Xavier Legette (97)
- Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (85)
- Saints WR Kevin Austin (81)
- Browns TE David Njoku (80)
- Falcons TE Kyle Pitts (79)
- Bills WR Mack Hollins (76)
Cooper's 717.6 unrealized air yards on the season trail only Malik Nabers (724.5), Rome Odunze (749) and *drum roll* Calvin Ridley (942.7). Say it with me everyone: Sheesh.
Of course, as we learned with Legette, sometimes these unrealized air yards were far more the fault of the WR than the QB.
The Butterfingers Police: Dropped touchdowns
While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one—and I sadly witnessed the following five pass catchers drop what sure looked like reasonable chances to secure 6 points.
- Panthers WR Xavier Legette (potential 32-yard TD dropped)
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (22)
- Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (18)
- Falcons TE Kyle Pitts (13)
- Cardinals WR Zay Jones (12)
- Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (9, not a gimme, but the man himself said it was catchable)
Sheeshy stuff indeed—almost as bad as when a missed TD was more so the QB's fault!
I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)
I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 10 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were quite a few instances that stuck out:
- Chargers WR Joshua Palmer (82)
- 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall (68)
- Steelers WR Mike Williams (63)
- 49ers WR Jauan Jennings (39-yard gain that could have been a 62-yard TD)
- Bills WR Mack Hollins (52)
- Jets WR Garrett Wilson (42-yard gain that could have been a 68-yard TD)
- Browns TE David Njoku (20)
- Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson (16)
- Packers TE Tucker Kraft (3)
- Seahawks TE Pharaoh Brown (2)
This category was certainly a bit subjective—our next one not so much.
The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 14’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Lions RB David Montgomery (x2)
- Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (x2, same drive)
- Falcons RB Bijan Robinson
- Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard
- Bills WR Khalil Shakir (x2)
- Giants WR Malik Nabers
- Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle
- Panthers QB Bryce Young
- Steelers QB Russell Wilson
- Lions QB Jared Goff (did throw for a TD on the same drive)
- Vikings QB Sam Darnold (did throw for a TD on the same drive)
Barkley now has *11* such sheeshes on the season, nine of which have occurred on separate drives. Sheeshy stuff for fantasy managers, but don't feel too bad for the Eagles' stud RB himself: Barkley has zero dollars in incentives based on TDs.
Pretty much the only thing more sheeshy than this is when the player actually does score a TD … only for the points to come right back off the scoreboard.
TD! Wait: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the rollercoaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
- Packers RB Josh Jacobs: Caught a wide-open 6-yard TD in the flat … but the stud RB was only as open as he was because Christian Watson set one helluva pick and was accordingly called for OPI. I do tend to think the call was warranted, even if the refs weren't overly consistent with this sort of penalty throughout the evening.
- 49ers QB Brock Purdy: Took a read option five yards around left end into the end zone, but the score was called back due to a hold on Ricky Pearsall. Honestly, Isaac Guerendo might have scored too if Purdy had decided to give him the ball. It was a pretty solid one-play indictment of the Bears defense.
- Titans RB Tony Pollard: Sprinted around right end for a short four-yard TD, but guess why he was able to find the end zone in the first place? That's right! Holding, and for the second time this season Pollard was forced to watch his 6 points come off the scoreboard.
- Giants punt returner Ihmir Smith-Marsette: Took a punt 56 yards back to the house, but sorry Giants DST faithful (anyone?): The return was called back due to a hold. Doesn't that always seem to happen to the best returns? Sheesh.
Additionally, Rams WR Demarcus Robinson (56), Chargers WR Quentin Johnston (28), Dolphins RB De'Von Achane (26), Steelers WR Mike Williams (26), Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison (16), Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet (15), Raiders RB Sincere McCormick (15) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.
Let's keep the sheeshy vibes going with more ref-aided near-miss moments!
That's right: Jordan Addison could've had an even bigger day
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.
Overall, five players gained at least 20 yards courtesy of DPI penalties in Week 14:
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison (47)
- Chargers WR Quentin Johnston (39)
- Bills WR Khalil Shakir (34)
- Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (27)
- Dolphins WR Malik Washington (23)
While many will be quick to forgive Addison for dropping the pass that drew the long DPI penalty, his father is not one of them.
Addison (83) now only trails teammate Justin Jefferson (154) and Noah Brown (158) in total yards drawn from DPI penalties this season. The Vikings are unsurprisingly first as a team with 273 such yards drawn; the Rams (228) and Chiefs (194) are the only other offenses even close.
Fun fact: The Eagles (12) and Lions (5) have drawn the least DPI yards and each have just one single DPI penalty against them this season. I am NOT a doctor, but it seems curious that the likes of A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DeVonta Smith haven't been interfered with all season long.
Our last category of sheesh centers around determining which QBs perhaps deserve some slack for their on-paper turnovers …
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the boxscore.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 14 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Saints QB Derek Carr: Took a downfield shot to Kevin Austin on 3rd and 10 that was intercepted at the Giants 17-yard line. The ball hung up a bit too long and was hardly perfect, but this was more or less an arm punt given the situation.
- Giants QB Drew Lock: Was facing a 4th and 9 with just 1:52 remaining in the game. Lock was flushed from the pocket and didn't seem to have anywhere to go with the football, leading to the desperate heave into coverage that was intercepted.
- Browns QB Jameis Winston and Bucs QB Baker Mayfield: Were both intercepted on screen passes. Should they have realized the play was dead and just thrown the ball in the dirt? Maybe, but just realize they weren't exactly egregious decisions or inaccurate passes.
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 15.