Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley Fantasy Outlook: Week 8 Sheesh Report
- The Ravens had themselves a sheeshy Sunday afternoon
- Cut Anthony Richardson just a little bit of slack
- Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
- Why exactly did Ridley stop running straight?
- The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
- TD! Wait: Flag.
- What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
- Sure would have been a lot cooler if these passes were better
- Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
Week 8 has come and gone. We saw 16 NFL games that brought joy, laughs and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from Week 6 that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh." I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by penalty
- Other random shit tilted fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with one of the sheeshier moments of Week 8 …
The Ravens had themselves a sheeshy Sunday afternoon
There were a number of factors that led to Baltimore losing to the Jameis Winston-led Browns in Week 8. Plenty of that was simply Cleveland putting forward its best team-wide performance of the season, but let's face it: The Ravens shot themselves in the foot several times across 60 minutes of action.
Specifically:
- Lamar Jackson missed an open Zay Flowers for a potential 31-yard TD on a 2nd-quarter drive that ended in a field goal.
- Jackson overthrew a wide open Isaiah Likely on what looked to have the chance to go 86 yards to the house on a 4th-quarter drive that ended in a punt.
- Rashod Bateman committed one of the more brutal drops of the season by letting a potential 50-yard gain bounce right off his facemask and fall incomplete. To be fair, the sun seemingly was in his eyes and caused the sheesh.
- The Ravens defense dropped not one, not two, but three separate interceptions on drives that ultimately ended with the Browns scoring 10 points. Baltimore also dropped three interceptions in Week 4 against the Bills; the Ravens are the only defense to accomplish this "feat" in 2024 and currently have a league-high eight dropped INTs–no other defense has more than five.
Not great for a team that was previously flying high on the back of five straight wins while largely looking like one of the single-best teams in the NFL. Say it with me everyone: Sheesh.
Of course, Jackson and Co. weren't the only team to be undone by some sheeshy moments in Week 8.
Cut Anthony Richardson just a little bit of slack
Because his receivers didn't exactly help him out in Week 8. Overall, both WR Adonai Mitchell (from 28 yards out) and RB Tyler Goodson (25) failed to corral well-thrown end-zone targets from Anthony Richardson that should have resulted in six points.
There were a handful of other close calls from Colts pass catchers that unfortunately weren't completed. Overall, Indy receivers came down with *one* catch on eight contested targets in Week 8, and they have the sixth-worst rate on the season (41%).
The Broncos also stuck out as pass catchers who let multiple potential big plays go right through their hands, but Bo Nix still managed to have a pretty damn good game regardless.
Not ideal! Of course, these weren't the only passing games to leave quite a bit of meat on the bone.
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: 14 players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 8—including three of Richardson's WRs:
- Giants WR Malik Nabers (131)
- Colts WR Michael Pittman (119)
- Ravens WR Zay Flowers (110)
- Bears WR Rome Odunze (101)
- Colts WR Alec Pierce (89)
- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (85)
- Cowboys WR KaVontae Turpin (85)
- Browns WR Cedric Tillman (84)
- Saints WR Chris Olave (83)
- Panthers WR Xavier Legette (79)
- Bucs WR Jalen McMillan (76)
- Colts WR Adonai Mitchell (74)
- Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (72)
- Bears WR Keenan Allen (70)
Through seven weeks the leader in unrealized air yards is headlined by Titans WR Calvin Ridley (559). While Ridley didn't crack Week 8's leaderboard, he did a different way to get his fantasy managers and anytime TD bettors to say, "Sheesh!"
Why exactly did Ridley stop running straight?
On the one hand, Ridley deserves credit for hauling in 10 of 15 targets for a season-high 143 yards against the Lions on Sunday. He looked crisp coming in and out of his routes and also made a number of nice contested catches; this was rather easily the 29-year-old veteran's best performance of the season.
On the other hand, Ridley sure looked to have a solid chance of turning what wound up being a 47-yard gain into a 78-yard TD if he just … kept running straight.
Falcons fans are all too familiar with Ridley's not-so-great tendency, although to be fair the Titans wound up scoring a TD on the drive anyway, so it's not like this cost them any points.
Speaking of near-miss TDs…
George Pickens was so close, yet so far away from a huge MNF performance
Be careful about discussing the Steelers' Monday night football win over the Giants too loudly at work today because there's at least a small chance one of your coworkers needed a big game from George Pickens … and sadly that would not happen due to some incredibly sheeshy happenings:
- Pickens had an early 11-yard TD nullified on a face mask penalty at the line of scrimmage. Definitely a correct call, but still: Sheesh.
- The Steelers' No. 1 WR later seemed to haul in a nine-yard TD, only for the refs to rule it incomplete because Pickens' LEFT foot never came down inbounds. Here's the sheeshy catch: He tapped his right foot inbounds TWICE. Apparently, that's not a catch, but I thought this was America?
Brutal for Pickens' fantasy managers and anytime TD bettors, although at least he somewhat salvaged the evening (4-74-0) with a 43-yard catch later in the game thanks to a b-e-a-utiful dime from Russell Wilson. Pickens also committed a hilarious WWE style tackle later in the game, which doesn't really apply here, but it was still hilarious.
Sheeshy stuff indeed, although our next category of sheesh is especially tilting for fantasy managers and anytime TD bettors to deal with.
The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 8’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (x2)
- Raiders RB Alexander Mattison (x2, same drive)
- Lions RB David Montgomery (did throw for a TD on same drive, lol)
- Cardinals RB James Conner
- Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker
- Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet
- Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby
- Broncos RB Javonte Williams
- Chargers RB Hassan Haskins
- Jets WR Garrett Wilson
- Chargers WR Ladd McConkey
- Colts WR Josh Downs
- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (lost fumble)
- Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte
- Bears WR DeAndre Carter
- Lions TE Sam LaPorta
- Cardinals TE Elijah Higgins
- Dolphins TE Julian Hill
- Bears C Doug Kramer (lost fumble)
Also note that Falcons TE Kyle Pitts *nearly* pulled off the sheesh of the season by committing a Leon Lett-esque gaff by getting stripped upon celebrating before crossing the goal line, but the TD stood after further review, even if it was SERIOUSLY close.
Man, these sucked. Of course, arguably the only thing sheesh-ier than near-miss TDs are scores that were initially counted … until they weren't.
TD! Wait: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the roller coaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
In Week 8 there were eight such instances:
- 49ers WR Deebo Samuel: Hauled in a 66-yard TD on a blown coverage by the Cowboys, only for the score to come off the board due to a (warranted) holding penalty.
- Falcons RB Bijan Robinson: Had a rather dope 36-yard TD run taken away due to a Ray-Ray McCloud holding penalty. Good news: Robinson capped the drive off with a TD catch anyway.
- Commanders WR Olamide Zaccheaus: Took a bubble screen 32 yards to the end zone, only for the score to not count due to an ineligible man downfield penalty.
- Titans WR Jha'Quan Jackson: Turned a nifty trick play pop pass into a 19-yard score, but you guessed it: The TD was wiped off the board due to not one but two holding penalties on the offensive line.
- Eagles RB Will Shipley: Scored a relatively meaningless 17-yard TD late in the Eagles' blowout win over the Bengals, but the TD was nullified on a hold. At least Shipley looked explosive!
- Colts WR Alec Pierce: Broke wide open for an easy 13-yard TD, although the reason why he was wide open was because of offensive pass interference by Michael Pittman, which brought the score back.
- Steelers WR George Pickens: 11-yard TD nullified due to a (warranted) face mask penalty at the line of scrimmage.
- Giants TE Chris Manhertz: Had a 16-yard TD nullified due to an illegal shift penalty that seemed like a pretty ticky tack call. These refs sure do love to throw their flags in primetime, huh?
In addition to these TDs, Patriots TE Hunter Henry (39-yard reception), Titans RB Tony Pollard (25-yard reception), Commanders WR Dyami Brown (24-yard reception), Bills WR Keon Coleman (22-yard reception), Raiders WR Tre Tucker (22-yard reception), Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (22-yard rush), Giants RB Tyrone Tracy (20-yard rush), Texans WR Tank Dell (19-yard reception), 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo (19-yard run), Packers RB Josh Jacobs (16-yard run), Saints RB Kendre Miller (15-yard run), and Panthers WR Jalen Coker (15-yard reception) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.
Gotta love when officials insist on making the games about them. Wait, we actually hate that? Right. Of course. Let's focus on more of that hate then …
What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.
Overall, six players gained at least 15 yards courtesy of DPI penalties in Week 8:
- Ravens TE Mark Andrews (29)
- Packers WR Romeo Doubs (21)
- Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert (19)
- Jets WR Davante Adams (17)
- Chargers WR Simi Fehoko (17)
- Rams WR Cooper Kupp (16)
Sheeshy stuff indeed, but we aren't done yet: Some missed opportunities can't simply be blamed on the refs.
Sure would have been a lot cooler if these passes were better
I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 10 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were quite a few instances that stuck out:
- Panthers WR Xavier Legette (potential 80-yard TD overthrown, although he might've gotten tackled)
- Colts WR Alec Pierce (75, 55)
- Titans WR Jha'Quan Jackson (73)
- Saints WR Chris Olave (53)
- Rams WR Tutu Atwell (41)
- Ravens WR Zay Flowers (31)
- Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo (22)
- Bengals WR Jermaine Burton (9)
- Broncos WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (8, was held but no call)
- Chiefs TE Jody Fortson (7)
- Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne (5)
- Bears WR DJ Moore (1)
Also note that Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan (potential 67-yard TD, but the rookie may have been the one at fault) and Commanders WR Luke McCaffrey (8, got only one foot down), and Giants WR Malik Nabers (21, got only one foot down) were very close to scoring themselves, although it's tough to be overly critical of their respective signal-callers on these specific sheeshes.
Also note Chargers WR Simi Fehoko (from 20 yards out) and Commanders TE Zach Ertz (9) came oh so close to scoring, while Falcons WR Darnell Mooney (51), Vikings WR Jalen Nailor (17), Chargers TE Eric Tomlinson (9), and Titans WR Tyler Boyd (1) were officially charged with drops on targets that sure looked like were heading for six points.
Our final category of sheesh involves providing a bit more context to some of the interceptions thrown last week.
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the boxscore.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 8 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Bills QB Josh Allen: His first INT of the year happened in part because Amari Cooper slipped during his release and allowed the corner to win the inside position. It certainly looked like the ball was thrown where it needed to be.
- Seahawks QB Geno Smith: Was trying to get Kenneth Walker the ball on a screen, but unfortunately the pass was deflected and picked off by the Bills.
- Panthers QB Bryce Young: Tried to get his TE Tommy Tremble the ball on a 4th and 5 late in the 3rd quarter, but it didn't look like Tremble was ready, as he deflected the reasonably well-thrown pass right to Patrick Surtain II. Maybe still not a great throw from Young, but he had to get rid of it under pressure regardless due to the game situation.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Was attempting to get the ball to Travis Kelce, but the pass was essentially deflected out of his hand, shot up into the air, and was picked by the Raiders.
On the other side of things, the following QBs were lucky to not register an extra turnover, as PFF deemed these incomplete passes as dropped INTs: Browns QB Jameis Winston (3 dropped INTs), Bengals QB Joe Burrow (2), Jets QB Aaron Rodgers (1), Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (1), Chargers QB Justin Herbert (1), and Saints QB Spencer Rattler (1). The league lead is a four-way tie between Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, and Matthew Stafford each with 4.
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 9.