Last-Minute Waiver Options and Top DFS Plays for Week 3

by Peter Overzet

2 months ago

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:

It’s been a rough start to the year for the TE position.

Every time the collective starts showing signs of life, there seems to be another setback.

Yesterday brought us another wave of TE injury news with George Kittle and Evan Engram getting ruled out with hamstring injuries, and Taysom Hill getting downgraded to doubtful with a chest injury.

If you are in a pinch for a TE streamer, a few names I “like” who might be available on your waiver wire, include: Noah Fant (my spidey senses think a nice game is coming), Johnny Mundt (3 targets last week and no Jordan Addison again), and Greg Dulcich (71% of the routes last week).

I know, it’s not pretty, but I’m trying my best for you. For a full list of ideas, check out our rankings tab.

Other news to be aware of today before lock:

Justin Herbert sounds like a game-time decision with his high ankle sprain. Even if he does go, I want nothing to do with a hobbled Herbert vs. the Steelers.

It’s going to be the Cam Akers show for the Texans with Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce out. We have him as a Top-24 RB play.

There was some hope that Jordan Love might return ahead of schedule, but Malik Willis is getting the nod again today vs. the Titans (revenge game!).

For late-breaking news, you can always visit our inactives page after 11:30 am ET. Good luck today.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

James McCool’s Week 3 DFS Advice
Watercooler:

Week 3 NFL DFS Plays: Top Value Picks

by James McCool

It's only Week 3, and injuries are already changing the landscape. More information is available each week, and I'm consolidating the data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 3 DraftKings NFL DFS plays, including my top stack, value picks, and GPP plays.

Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.

Top Week 2 NFL DFS Value Plays

RB: Jordan Mason

There is little to say here, as Jordan Mason is painfully mispriced. He is projected for 19.13 fantasy points with a ceiling of 35.31, the second-highest mark at RB on the slate, and he is only $6,200. His utilization score for the year is 8.21, typically worth 16.30 PPR points per game, which would still have him as underpriced. He's an awesome play, and even if he is 40% owned, that's probably still too low. Plug and play, move along.

WR: Brandon Aiyuk

Without Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, or Christian McCaffrey, we can expect Aiyuk to be the focal point of the 49ers' offense. He's been underwhelming to start the year with just a 14% target share and 17% of the air yards, but his ceiling can touch a 25/35 split of those numbers based on his historical output.

Last week, he went from 79% route participation in Week 1 to 93% in Week 2. He currently projects for 17.64 PPR points and a 21.10% rate of hitting 4x his salary based on the simulations at PayDirt. He's a terrific play as part of a stack or as a one-off.

TE: Dallas Goedert

It may seem strange that a $4,600 TE is a "value," but Goedert projects as such and is getting hardly any ownership. We are seeing the same situation week after week—A TE with elite upside priced in the mid-4k range at a $1k discount.

We also saw a meaningful role change last week when A.J. Brown wasn't available. Goedert went from 77% route participation in Week 1 to 100% in Week 2 and 1% of the air yards in Week 1 to 18% last week. His projection-ceiling combo of 11.77/25.22 is respectable and likely undercuts his upside based on the role change and increased opportunity. He's an excellent pairing with Jalen Hurts as a QB+1.

Top GPP Plays

RB: Aaron Jones

It would be easy enough for me to put Jordan Mason in this spot as well, but in the interest of relative value, I'm going with Aaron Jones. He projects for only 5% ownership at the time of writing and has a median projection of 14.82 PPR fantasy points. What I like about him is his usage.

A utilization score of 7.51 gives him an expectation of 14.10 PPR points, and he has been unlucky, as evidenced by his expected fantasy points of 19.14 per game being higher than his actual output of 15.35 points. The offensive environment is strong against Houston, and his price leaves upside on the table. At his ownership, he's a terrific play in larger field GPPs.

More DFS Plays to Click

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