The haters said a perfect fantasy football draft was impossible, but here you are. It's Round 15. Almost at the finish line. Simply time to land the plane and not mess up these last four picks.

It's only then that a disturbing thought hits you: Who the hell are these people? Obviously you put in the time to learn every team's key players, but nobody ever said anything about backup RBs and complementary WRs.

Not to worry: That's where this very article comes in hand: What follows are my six favorite fantasy picks with an average draft position (ADP) outside of the top 150 overall selections.

Note that players must boast an ADP of 150 or higher on ESPN to be eligible.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

I got too drunk and forgot to draft a QB, what now?

The 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick hasn’t lived up to the “generational” label during his short career. Lawrence’s magical 27-point Wild Card comeback against the Chargers was great and all; just realize his advanced metrics don’t exactly scream “highest-paid player in the sport.”

Lawrence among all QBs with 300-plus dropbacks:

  • 2021: -0.045 EPA per dropback (No. 26), -4.9% completion percentage over expected (No. 29)
  • 2022: +0.132 EPA (No. 9), +1.4% CPOE (No. 9)
  • 2023: +0.071 EPA (No. 17), +0.9% CPOE (No. 16)

The results in fantasy land, accordingly, haven’t been great. The QB29, QB11 and most recently QB15 in fantasy points per game, Lawrence simply hasn’t been a difference-maker in the box score during his first three seasons.

Of course, the Jaguars have hardly surrounded Lawrence with the world’s most QB-friendly environment. Specifically, Jacksonville has boasted the league’s 28th-, 20th- and 30th-ranked offenses in “Supporting Cast Rating” over the past three seasons. The near-miss TD mixtape from last season is particularly nauseating.

Trevor Lawrence

Nov 19, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) drops back to pass against the Tennessee Titans in the second quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Overall, nobody lost more EPA to dropped passes than Lawrence last season. He was unironically a top-three QB in EPA per play when accounting for this and the Jaguars' porous pass blocking. Every QB faces adversity to some extent, but the eye test and advanced numbers agree that Lawrence was objectively unluckier than most last season.

Additionally, injuries didn’t help. T-Law is probably in an ice bath somewhere as you’re reading this:

  • Week 6: Bruised knee
  • Week 13: Grade 3 high ankle sprain
  • Week 15: Concussion
  • Week 16: Sprained A/C joint

But guess what? Lawrence doesn’t turn 25 until October, and the Jaguars went out of their way to improve their aforementioned underwhelming environment during the offseason both at the line of scrimmage and on the perimeter. It’d make a lot of sense if Lawrence’s best football has yet to come. That’s at least what the Jaguars are hoping for, anyway.

Ultimately, there's more rushing upside here than the other purer-pocket passers that Lawrence is being priced around. I'm not exactly sure why T-Law is being priced so far behind guys like Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins on ESPN when he's more expensive than each over at Underdog Fantasy, but hey, no reason for us to complain: Lawrence is prime LATE-round QB option who at worst profiles as a solid early-season streaming option with potential shootouts to start the season against the likes of the Colts, Chiefs, Texans, Falcons and Bills in Weeks 1 to 6.

But is there a QB who is cheap AND has actually been really good before?

Watson has started just 12 football games over the past three seasons. Glass-half-full optimists can point to the ever-brutal December weather in Cleveland as well as rotator cuff and shoulder injuries as reasons why the three-time Pro Bowler hasn't managed to catch his stride with his new employer.

That said: It's tough to find a single reliable advanced metric that paints Watson as anything other than one of the NFL's worst QBs since joining the Browns.

Watson among 46 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2022-23:

  • EPA per dropback: -0.041 (No. 38)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -1.8% (No. 40)
  • PFF pass grade: 58.7 (No. 42)
  • Passer rating: 81.9 (No. 36)
  • Yards per attempt: 6.5 (tied for No. 34)

Quite the falloff for someone who trailed only Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees in EPA + CPOE composite score during the 2017 to 2020 seasons. Hell, Watson's rushing yards per game have also dropped off (31.1 vs. 26.4) relative to what we saw during the first four years of his career.

Understandably, Watson's drastic decrease in passing efficiency has had a brutal impact on his fantasy production. This hasn't always been the world's most fantasy-friendly supporting cast, but still: Sheesh.

Watson fantasy points per game by season:

  • 2017: 24.1 (QB1)
  • 2018: 20.7 (QB5)
  • 2019: 21.3 (QB2)
  • 2020: 23.1 (QB5)
  • 2022: 14.3 (QB22)
  • 2023: 14.5 (QB24)

And yet, Watson somehow remains one of just four QBs in NFL history (min. 16 starts) to average at least 20 fantasy points per game for their career.

This brings us to the primary question here: What are the chances that Watson turns things around ahead of a CRUCIAL 2024 season that could represent his last opportunity to work as the team's full-time starter? Don't get it twisted: The Browns can't realistically get out of this hideous contract without forfeiting over $60 million in dead money before 2027, but another lackluster campaign could feasibly be the last straw considering how much public ridicule this team has faced since trading for his services in the first place.

The bear and bull cases for Watson ahead of next season:

  • Bull: Watson recorded three top-10 fantasy finishes in essentially his only five full games last season. It'd make sense if his third year in Kevin Stefanski's offense, combined with an improved receiving core and better health, yields the best results yet in Cleveland.
  • Bear: One of the worst NFL QBs over the last two seasons continues to function as just that. Continued regression in rushing production leads to minimal spike weeks in an offense that ranks 28th in pass-play rate (56.5%) under Stefanski.

I'm still licking my wounds from drafting far too much Watson in 2023 — but remember: Don't hate the player, hate the ADP, and the current dirt cheap cost is more than worthy of a late-round dart considering the upside scenario involves landing one of the most fantasy-friendly QBs … ever … in the final few rounds of your draft.

I need an RB with a chance for full-PPR standalone value AND sky-high handcuff upside, any ideas?

Gibson earned a lofty Tier 2 ranking in my award-winning Handcuff Tiers article. Okay, fine, I made up the awards part, but I did work hard on it! OKAY???

Anyway, nobody is disputing Rhamondre Stevenson's status as the clear lead back in New England, but that doesn't mean Gibson shouldn't be considered the favorite to assume the majority of Ezekiel Elliott's vacated 235 touches. New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt regularly featured multiple RBs during his last four years in Cleveland; something like a 60/40 split in favor of 'Mondre would make a lot of sense.

Nov 5, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) runs the ball during the first half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

That sort of usage could be just fine for both RBs should Van Pelt manage to produce another eighth-place finish for his backfield in expected RB PPR points per game. Fantasy Life projections have the split going like this:

  • Stevenson: 196 rush attempts, 50 targets
  • Gibson: 103 rush attempts, 37 targets

The 26-year-old talent didn't rack up over 1,000 total yards with double-digit TDs in back-to-back seasons to start his career by accident, and there's enough receiving ability here to believe some serious full-PPR goodness would be on the table should Stevenson hit the sideline … like he's done for five games in two of his three career seasons.

This sort of 1.B role combined with sky-high handcuff upside due to the Patriots' barren depth behind these two backs makes Gibson one of the better late-round "FLEX with benefits" RBs out there.

An RB one injury away from leaping into the position's top 15, is that something you might be interested in?

CEH is tentatively the next man up behind Isiah Pacheco due to the continued absence of current free agent Jerick McKinnon.The former first-round pick's modest advantages in snaps (67 vs. 50), carries (24 vs. 8) and targets (8 vs. 7) over the pass-catching veteran in two games with Pacheco sidelined last season could be amplified in 2024.

Consider: CEH and McKinnon racked up 57.8 PPR points in Weeks 14-15 last season — just 0.2 fewer fantasy points than what CMC averaged during that stretch. That sort of weird shit can happen for RBs inside one of the league's most fantasy-friendly offenses led by Mr. Patrick Mahomes.

Note that Rugby star turned NFL-er Louis Rees-Zammit tentatively profiles as more of a special teams weapon than legit backfield competition, at least in 2024. Nobody behind Pacheco on this depth chart has anywhere near the level of NFL experience and familiarity with this offense as CEH, mediocre real-life ability be damned.

What cheap WR actually has high-end talent and a chance to lead their team in targets?

Legette isn't the perfect prospect. He never eclipsed even 200 yards in a season prior to his breakout 2023 campaign (71-1,255-7), resulting in an underwhelming rating in the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model. Twenty-four years old next January, Legette would hardly be the first "one-year wonder" who ultimately fails to put forward big-time production at the next level.

Nov 11, 2023; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Xavier Legette (17) makes a reception against Vanderbilt Commodores cornerback Trudell Berry (30) in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

Then again, God only makes so many 6-foot-1, 221-pound athletes with sub-4.4 speed, and this one just so happened to go 32nd in last April's NFL Draft. The Athletic's Dane Brugler summed up Legette nicely in his critically acclaimed "The Beast" breakdown:

“Legette is at his best on runway routes (verticals, posts, crossers) or sweeps and end-arounds that get his long-striding acceleration going. He doesn’t consistently shake tight man coverage, but he will use his size to play strong through contact. Overall, Legette needs to continue developing his route proficiency and tempo, but his film gives off DK Metcalf vibes, and he has the explosive speed and physicality to be a matchup weapon. He should be an immediate contributor on special teams before competing for starting reps outside.”

Dave Canales' early vision for the rookie certainly seems promising when paired with this scouting report.

Ultimately, the real allure of Legette comes down to the reality that there aren't many WRs with his sort of target ceiling available at this stage of the draft. The Panthers are fully expected to start Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen and Legette in three-WR sets, meaning there's a non-zero chance the rookie emerges as Bryce Young's new No. 1 target sooner rather than later in 2024.

Clear-cut No. 2 or worse options like Gabe Davis and Jahan Dotson are presently going ahead of Legette in early drafts. Don't be afraid to buy low on a freaky athletic talent with first-round draft capital.

Oh shit. I forgot to draft a TE. What do I do?

Freiermuth is the new frontrunner to be in Arthur Smith's "Kyle Pitts" role. Reading that sentence likely sent a shiver down your spine, but it's worth noting Pitts earned the position's 10th-most targets per game (5.9) from 2021 to 2023. Only Mark Andrews had more total air yards than Pitts during that span.

I'm more inclined to believe Pitts' lack of production to start his career has been more of a QB/health problem than a complete indictment that Arthur is an imbecile. Apologies to your fantasy teams, but Jonnu Smith was objectively more efficient with his opportunities in 2023. Was Jonnu often given more YAC-friendly targets? Yes, but maybe that was actually a decent idea considering, you know, Pitts has forced exactly *one* more missed tackle than Zach f*cking Ertz over the past two seasons?

Okay, sorry, got carried away there. This is about Freiermuth, after all. ANYWAY: Freiermuth doesn't turn 26 until October and deserves credit for working as fantasy's TE10 in PPR points per game during the first two seasons of his career. Obviously, last season's 32-308-2 performance wasn't exactly a step in the right direction, but suffering Week 1 chest and Week 4 hamstring injuries didn't exactly set him up for success either.

Look, Freiermuth doesn't deserve to be a top-10 option at the position ahead of 2024, but that doesn't mean the following three factors aren't working in his favor:

  • The Steelers QB room is in a better place this year than last.
  • There are 143 vacated targets (10th most) in this offense primarily from the Dionate Johnson and Allen Robinson departures.
  • 2023 third-round pick Darnell Washington earned a whopping 10 targets last season and was used as a blocker on 72% of his snaps. It'd be VERY surprising to see any of Connor Heyward, MyCole Pruitt or Rodney Williams earn any level of meaningful route participation.

Freiermuth's lowly ADP seems to be somewhat unfairly influenced by the idea that Arthur Smith hates TEs … even though Falcons TEs had the fourth-most targets in the NFL during his time there. Fantasy Life Projections have him tied with Dalton Schultz for the 12th-highest target total (76) at the position. Fantasy managers can do worse than a young TE with a realistic chance to push for a top-10 target workload available this late in drafts.