It’s nice to want things. It’s good to have a plan.

I’ve walked through building optimal teams from early and late positions using our Draft Champion tool. Typically, I’ve gone with an early or mid-round approach to QB. Either strategy is viable. Elite QBs give you the best shot at top-6 finishes each week, but you’ll pass up on an RB1 or high-end WR2. 

On the flip side, signal-callers on the board in the middle rounds have more volatile profiles. However, teams can build strong stables at both skill positions while gambling on their passer. Again, either plan can succeed. 

But our leaguemates may have similar thoughts. Or their lack of strategy can leave our best-laid plans in shambles. No need to worry, though. If you find yourself boxed out at QB, I’ve got a few options worth considering late in drafts.

Popular Late-Round Options

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

While we haven’t seen Deshaun Watson reclaim the same heights he had in Houston, his injuries sapped any hope folks may have had for him in 2023.

  • CPOE: +1.0% (Weeks 1-3), -0.3% (Weeks 9-10)
  • Passing Success Rate: 44.9%, 29.0%
  • Air Yards per Attempt: 9.8, 7.0 
  • Scramble Rate: 5.8%, 9.1%

On the plus side, Watson’s increased scramble rate was a boon for his ailing fantasy value. At 4.3 rush attempts per game, Cleveland’s QB1 tacked on 3.0 PPG as a runner (11th most). All we need are his passing skills to come back and, at least on paper, he has the personnel and scheme to outkick his ADP.

Ken Dorsey (the Browns’ new OC) was the architect behind Buffalo’s offense in 2022 and part of ’23. During his time with Josh Allen, the Bills’ passing game ranked top 12 in their rate on passing in neutral situations, use of play-action, and RPOs. Combined with mashing as many easy buttons as possible for Allen, Dorsey kept Allen looking downfield as he was one of four QBs with an average air yards per attempt over 9.0. Coincidentally, the Browns' pass-catchers seamlessly fit into what Dorsey and Watson want to do.

Amari Cooper’s aDOT hasn’t been under 13 yards since his move to Ohio. Jerry Jeudy (12.1) and Elijah Moore (11.2) also primarily attack the intermediate parts of the field. With David Njoku (7th in YPRR, min. 50 targets) working the short area of the field, Watson (assuming he's healthy) has the complement of pass-catchers and coaching staff to help him break the Browns’ single-season passing record.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Waiting on Geno Smith isn’t a bet on Geno’s talent. At QB22, the market already reflects what we think of his ability under center. We’re banking on Ryan Grubb bringing modern concepts to this offense. Luckily, two things stuck out about the new Seahawks’ OC in his time at the collegiate level.

Pre-snap motion can tip the defense’s hand in terms of coverage while giving WRs freer release paths. It’s part of what’s set Kyle Shanahan and his acolytes apart from the league. I used last season’s pre-snap motion rates as a proxy and found some signal between something as simple as moving a WR and passing efficiency. 

  • EPA per dropback (r-squared): 0.15
  • Passing Success Rate: 0.17

Unfortunately, the Seahawks ranked 22nd here. DK Metcalf, their WR1, went into motion on just 2.2% of his snaps. Put another way, Seattle’s coaching staff was telling Metcalf to win on his own 97.8% of the time. Meanwhile, Grubb made pre-snap motion a staple of his offense. Accordingly, the Huskies were dunking on opposing defenses at a 36-PPG clip. Additionally, Grubb got all of his pass-catchers involved relative to his predecessors.

The Seahawks have ranked in the top half of the league in targets to the TE just once in the last five seasons (2022). Despite spending the 8th-most cash at the position last season, their trio of TEs returned just 833 yards and three scores. With the workload condensed to Noah Fant, Smith will be in a scheme looking to incorporate all of their receivers to keep the offense moving downfield.

Smith still had top-10 grades on attempts of 20 yards or more in back-to-back seasons and sits right at the league average in air yards per attempt since taking over in Seattle (7.3). All three of his WRs go in the Top 100. Assuming the playcalling approach clicks into place, Smith will have another comeback season in 2024.

We Like Their Weapons, So We Should (Kinda) Like Them

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford has three skill position players coming off fantasy boards by the fourth round. Plus, he has a couple of late-round darts tied to him. But Stafford’s fantasy value isn’t what it used to be. The 2021 Super Bowl champ had fewer top-12 finishes than Derek Carr last season. However, Stafford has a shot to slide back into the Top 16.

As I said, his situation looks immaculate, but LA left some meat on the bone last season. It was the Rams' lowest red-zone passing rate since Stafford’s move from Detroit (from 2021-2023: 4.9%, 7.1%, -6.8%). Part of it was Kyren Williams’ ascension. Another was their lack of a reliable third WR. Demarcus Robinson (10 RZ looks) overtook Tutu Atwell (7) and Ben Skowronek (3) over the back half of the season while securing four TDs.

Assuming a full season of Cooper Kupp, LA should be able to get back to its pass-happy ways once it gets into scoring position. Plus, with additional options (Robinson, the TEs), Stafford can challenge his career TD rate (4.7%), which he’s fallen short of in the last two seasons.

What Could Go Wrong?

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

Will Levis flashed in his first start but didn’t crack the Top 24 for the remainder of his rookie campaign. However, bringing HC Brian Callahan down from Cincinnati and the Titans’ free-agent additions make Levis worth a late-round dart. 

Cincinnati ranked third in neutral pass rate during Callahan’s five-year stint as OC. Compared to the Titans’ -5.0% PROE, we’ll take the volume. But the new HC’s schematic tendencies should also help Levis improve as a QB. 

Joe Burrow only ran play-action concepts from under center on 12.4% of his dropbacks. His injury and preference to keep his eyes toward defenders limited what the Bengals could do offensively. However, with Jake Browning, the same rate jumped to 55.4%. Coincidentally, Levis operated similarly during his final season of college (36.1% play-action rate).

Calvin Ridley (13.9 aDOT in ’23) and DeAndre Hopkins (14.8) can stress defenses deep—the hope is Hopkins' knee is health after 4-to-six weeks. Chigoziem Okonkwo (7.0) and, apparently, Josh Whyle (9.8) are viable options at the intermediate level. With Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears out of the backfield, Levis can work all three levels and forge a path for his fantasy value in 2024.

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