Living the fantasy life isn't always all fun and games, but that doesn't mean we can't appreciate the ups and downs that any given season presents along the way.

Accordingly, we'll be chronicling some of the ebbs and flows of the fantasy calendar as we progress through the 2024 season. And just like that: We're on to Week 1 …

Life moves pretty fast, so if you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could accidentally join 38 fantasy football leagues.

I joke. Actually, I don't. Despite my best intentions of joining no more than 20 managed leagues this year, your boy Ian is at least partially responsible for over three dozen redraft, dynasty, and (for now) guillotine squads.

My Tuesday nights are going to be a living waiver wire-induced nightmare for the better part of the next four months. I'll be emotionally numb to most on-field outcomes since they will simultaneously be good for certain teams and bad for others. And there's nobody to blame but the man in the mirror.

That said: What if things work out on more squads than not? What if drafting Malik Nabers every chance I had for the last three months was actually a great idea? What if largely fading a likely bad Raiders offense was an even better call? What if this is finally the year that devoting a large percentage of my bankroll to Antonio Gibson doesn't cause my wife to strongly consider finding a new residence?

With a new fantasy year comes new hope because anything is possible up until the Red Zone countdown hits zero … and only then do we remember (to quote the great Ruth Langmore):

We don't know sh*t about f*ck.

Seriously: Crazy things can and will happen across the next 72 hours that will *best Peter Overzet impression* flip the fantasy football world on its head.

Look no further than last year's 31st-ranked scoring offense for a good example of 60 minutes of football not necessarily leading to more good things down the road.

Patriots PPR fantasy finishes from Week 1, 2023:

On the other side of the coin, guys like Lamar Jackson (QB27), D'Andre Swift (RB73), and Trey McBride (TE30) suffered disappointing season debuts before obviously helping many fantasy managers eventually capture championship glory.

Hell, Tee Higgins and Drake London had as many receptions as you did during the first 60 minutes of last season. De'Von Achane was a healthy scratch!

Don't get it twisted: Week 1 matters. It's the best and most meaningful data point we'll have to go off of when looking ahead to Week 2; waiver wire darlings Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams were easy to spot after their respective strong debuts. It's why Matthew Freedman opened up Thursday's Fantasy Life Show with a declaration that he's mostly just excited for Week 2 to get here, which is a batshit crazy thing to say at the beginning of a Week 1 preview show, but I also kind of get it.

I mean seriously: Have you seen some of these "official" depth charts that are actually quite unofficial? Bengals head coach Zac Taylor literally said their depth chart is meaningless. The Dolphins apparently paid Jonnu Smith $8.4 million … to be their backup fullback? Many wanted to imply that Kyren Williams working as the Rams punt returner was a bad thing, so if Blake Corum is also the kick returner, does that make Ronnie Rivers the RB1?

It'll be great to get some real data to work with soon enough, but with that said: Week 1 is still just one piece of the puzzle.

I understand overreacting to every minute detail is what fantasy football discourse is all about, and our Fantasy Life team will continue to create consensus rankings and projections to help make educated start/sit decisions, but at the end of the day: It's not easy to predict future outcomes from a game featuring a ball that isn't even round.

Because of the inherent randomness of the greatest sport in the world, you'll be pretty well served to ask yourself the following three questions before over-reacting to anything that happens during any given week of action:

  1. Was my underperforming fantasy player just unlucky? Every Tuesday I publish "The Sheesh Report", which breaks down near-miss beyond-the-box-score occurrences like dropped TDs, nullified scores, vultures, and much more. One time Percy Harvin had just 34 total yards on six touches ... with not one, not two, but three TDs that got nullified due to penalties. Bad production doesn't always correlate with bad performance, which is why we always make sure to get a grip on all the weekly moments that simply make fantasy managers say, "Sheesh!"
     
  2. Did the high-producing player in question also have great usage? This is where Dwain "The Rock" McFarland's Utilization Report suite comes in handy. It's far easier to predict future elite performances from players who are actively dealing with elite usage. Example: Rachaad White posted rather dominant shares in snaps (79%), rush attempts (57%), and routes (55%) in Week 1 last year despite his meh finish as the PPR RB36, which should have led to some patience from fantasy managers ahead of his RB8 finish in Week 2.
     
  3. Was the good or bad performance due in large part to the matchup? We'll get better at determining what defenses are especially good or bad in a particular facet of the game as the year goes on, but there are already plenty of on-paper mismatches to be aware of ahead of Week 1. An RB booming against the Broncos' reigning 31st-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position shouldn't be viewed quite as favorably as one going off against the 49ers' ferocious front seven.

Here's to hoping all of us take that ever-crucial first step to fantasy football immortality this week and kick off the season with a W. But if not? Don't panic, take a deep breath, and assess just how much of the loss was because your team actually sucks, and how much was maybe due to a 60-minute sample size gone wrong.

Or you can always just blame me and other so-called fantasy football "experts" for not giving you, a scholar, better ranks and advice. That works too.

Good luck to everyone and always remember: It's a great day to be great!