In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
You know it’s going to be a good day of football when a Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and Niners is like the fifth-most interesting fantasy game of the day.
The strength of those defenses could keep the scoring in check, but there are plenty of potential shootout spots for us elsewhere:
Falcons/Seahawks (51.5-point total), Commanders/Panthers (51.5), Vikings/Lions (50.5), and Packers/Texans (48.5).
As usual, we also have a decent amount of injury spots to monitor. Here’s everything you need to know before setting your lineups today …
Cooper Kupp is a true game-time decision as he tries to come back from his ankle injury. If he doesn’t go, both Jordan Whittington and Colby Parkinson are good spot-starts in a pinch.
Aaron Jones is expected to make his return to action today, provided his hammy doesn’t flare up in warm-ups. Similar to Joe Mixon last week, do not be hesitant to start him off the injury layoff. He’s going to get a ton of work in a great game environment.
Brian Robinson (knee) is “trending up” to play vs. the Commanders. This is the best RB matchup of the week (more on him in James’ DFS piece below), so make sure to check inactives at 11:30 AM ET. Regardless, Austin Ekeler is a sneaky start/DFS play today.
Kenneth Walker popped up on the injury report late yesterday with an “illness.” I’ve seen a lot of panic on this one, but I’m not concerned. It’s his birthday today—he probably wanted to get out in front of the hangover.
Alright, good luck today.
For more NFL news, and Week 7 DFS advice, keep on reading …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- James McCool’s Week 7 DFS Advice: His top stack, values, and GPP gem
- Watercooler: Are the Jets going to make another trade?
Top Stack, Values, and More for Week 7
by James McCool
Week 7 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 7 DraftKings NFL DFS plays, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources.
Top Stack — Houston Texans
We have two stacks notably above the others in median this week—PHI and HOU. While I love the PHI option here, using Jalen Hurts usually means running a QB+1, which has pros and cons. I prefer the spot with HOU here for a handful of reasons.
First off, the target tree with no Nico Collins is going to be nice and tight and present a lot of upside in closer games. In the first game with no Collins, we saw Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell combine for 55% of the targets and 65% of the air yards, which is an elite rate for a duo. They did this in a game where NE was mostly non-competitive and now get a spot against GB, who can match their firepower.
The game environment for HOU/GB looks like one of the best on the slate. The game total of 47.5 points is the fourth-highest while the passing TD combination (based on projections) is the highest at 3.29. When you consider price, target trees, and game environments, I think it’s hard to ignore HOU and even think a full game stack (QB + 2 + 2) is a great way to build for GPPs.
Value Plays
RB: Chuba Hubbard
This was a toss-up for me between Hubbard and Tony Pollard as both options are still underpriced for their roles and make for strong foundations at RB. However, Hubbard has some upside that I think is more easily accessible than Pollard and also comes with an easier leverage spot (which we will talk about a bit later).
Regarding role and utilization score, it’s hard to beat Hubbard for the price, as his seasonal score sits at 7.98 and he continues to push for 61% of the rush attempts and 83% of the inside-the-five attempts for CAR. His expected fantasy points are really what pushes him over the top for me, as his 18.24 exPPR points per game are up there with guys like Kenneth Walker (18.93) and above Jahmyr Gibbs (16.25). He’s a great play that is about $1k underpriced.
WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster
It’s pretty incredible that JuJu nuked a primetime game (8/8/125+ and a TD), had a full bye week, and DraftKings still didn’t price him up. He is just $4k and is in an obviously valuable role with the Chiefs sans the Rashee Rice injury. His median projection over at Paydirt is 11.80 with a ceiling of 24.91, which sits him above guys like Michael Pittman and teammate Xavier Worthy, who are both $2,000 more expensive. He’s just an obvious plug-and-play and even at 25%+ projected ownership, a hard one to fade.
GPP Gem
RB: Brian Robinson Jr.
I alluded to it earlier, but I think that Brian Robinson is pretty terrific leverage off of Hubbard in the same game environment. I kind of did a double take at the game total here as WAS/CAR is sitting at 52.5 at the time of writing, the highest on the slate! With that high a total we should expect the ball to move and touchdowns aplenty, and that means we should be looking for high-upside options at lower ownership. Robinson fits that bill, as he has one of the better short-down-and-distance roles in the league (82% of the total opportunities) and a strong redzone presence.
The icing on the cake is CAR is the best matchup in the league for RBs, giving up 10.7 fantasy points above average, 1.7 rushing TDs per game, and 114.7 rushing yards per contest. Just an awesome spot for an RB who has shown upside.
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1:00 p.m. Kickoff
- Houston at Green Bay
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- Tennessee at Buffalo
4:05 p.m. Kickoff
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
📊 Projections for every player on the Sunday slate … great tool to help with lineup decisions.
✍️ Bye weeks and injuries make Week 7 a bit trickier. Your start-sit recommendations.
🚁 The QB going for 300+ & 4 TDs today. Let’s ride.
🚑️ Updates on Aidan Hutchinson. A Super Bowl run hangs in the balance.
🐬 Tua is set to return shortly. Good, because I can’t handle much more Huntley.
🤝 The Jets might not be done making deals. This would be interesting.
