I’m still learning how to be on camera.

No, really. Of course, I love it. I get to hang out with my friends and (try to) talk ball. Sure, I might sputter out sentence fragments and light things on fire from time to time. But how else do you get to Carnegie Hall?

I got into this industry as a writer. It’s easier for me to put my thoughts on “paper.” Plus, I can edit my words. Regardless, my writing is a better way to understand my processes and how I approach, well, everything! 

So, each week I’ll be grabbing some questions from our Discord and social media to give you not just answers for the upcoming week but ways to solve similar problems we’ll likely see throughout the season.

Who would you rather have in full PPR: Wicks or Mooney? — KJsmoothOD

I wanted to answer this question for one season. Because by the time you read this, I’ll already know whether or not Darnell Mooney was useful in fantasy since the Falcons play(ed) Thursday night.

I’m kidding.

The real reason was to go through a thought exercise of valuing an instantaneous fantasy producer versus a slow starter. Are we boosting Dontayvion Wicks’ value on vibes alone? Or is the (over?)reaction warranted? Before even getting to the players, I start with the offenses.

We have two games with Jordan Love (mostly) healthy and another couple of Malik Willis under center. QB starters are averaging 34.6 dropbacks per game. Love is at 45.5. Kirk Cousins sits at 31.3. So, Green Bay gets a point for more volume to their receivers. But the play-calling also matters. 

  • Play-Action Rate: 19th (GB), 30th (ATL)
  • RPO Rate: 6th, 24th
  • Pre-Snap Motion Rate: 8th, 4th 

If you didn’t know HC Matt LaFleur was sharp, getting 380.5 YPG out of Willis across two games should do it. In either case, the Packers are stringing together the right plays to keep all their pass-catchers involved. Of course, we’d want to see most (all?) of the targets go to our favorite player. But overall efficiency can lead to more plays in the red zone, which means there are more scoring opportunities for our guy. Speaking of our guy, let’s dig into the players.

  • Air Yard Share: 36.0%
  • Target Share: 25.0%
  • aDOT: 15.9

Wicks’ opportunity share was absurd for a guy coming in relief of his starting WR. The single-game production is eye-popping, too. But Mooney has done this before, as well.

  • Week 2: 24.1% (target share), 48.1% (air yard share), 16.1 (aDOT)
  • Week 4: 17.6%, 36.6%, 20.2

Mooney has a 22.9% target rate from the inside. Wicks was at 23.1% on Sunday. They’re not that dissimilar. Hence, we have to contextualize their talent and environment. Not just look at one or the other.

Oddly enough, the Packers sit at a -0.2 pass rate over expected with Love as their starter. They’re passing (slightly) less than they should despite the above-average number of dropbacks I cited earlier. Atlanta is at -5.0%. And they’ve been less efficient overall (15th vs 19th in EPA per Play). Wicks’ situation gives him the edge while also confirming our off-season priors. But really, it’s not as wide of a gap between those two as it may seem.

Should I start Jayden Daniels over Josh Allen in Week 5? — Seahawk Nation 08

I usually cringe at the sight of these types of questions. Not because someone asked it. But the potential negative result.

Don’t get it twisted. I’ve been married for the better part of two decades. I’m wrong often. But even our rankers would agree that Jayden Daniels vs. Josh Allen isn’t an easy decision.

In these situations, the first place I’ll check to help make a decision is our projections. Admittedly, I’m a spreadsheet guy, but numbers don’t care about my feelings. Data isn’t aware I need to win this week. Accordingly, at least for this week, Daniels wins the first skirmish.

  • Jayden Daniels: 21.7
  • Josh Allen: 19.3

But one piece of information can’t tilt my decision. We should always look for more input. So, afterward, I’ll look at how each player generates fantasy points. Luckily, both Daniels and Allen operate similarly when on the field.

  • Daniels: +1.0% (PROE), 34.5 (average dropbacks), 14.3% (designed rush rate), 16.7% (scramble rate)
  • Allen: -1.0%, 29.8, 7.0%, 10.9%

Both passers have an affinity for doing their best Superman impression and playing the game on their terms. However, even here we can see a disparity. The Commanders’ triggerman throws and runs more than the face of the Bills franchise. I even zoomed in on the plays when either team was in the red zone. Daniels averages more attempts on the ground than Allen here, too (3.5 to 2.3). We can assume it’s why the rookie has the stronger projection. But, finally, I’ll consider the defensive matchup.

The Texans gave up 56 yards and a score to Anthony Richardson in Week 1. Daniel Jones is the only mobile QB Cleveland has seen and he put up 20 yards, tipping the scales toward Allen. But Houston has surrendered the fourth-fewest passing yards per game. And, for the sake of this week’s argument, Khalil Shakir may miss Week 5.

In short, Daniels grades out as the better option. But, more importantly, walking through a logical process (e.g., projections  players  opposing defense) can help sort through these types of questions in the future.

Should I drop Jauan Jennings or Jerry Jeudy to stash Flacco? — relentless369

Editor's note: This owners's team also has Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins in a 1QB league, along with WRs Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison, Michael Pittman, Brian Thomas Jr, and Mclaurin.

I don’t know about you all, but I turn into Smaug after I get players on my roster. I mean, unless they run truly bad (I’m looking at you, Mark Andrews, respectfully), they have value. And I don’t want to let my overestimation of my position lead to someone else’s gain.

To be clear, if I had to choose, I’d release Jerry Jeudy to the wild. My man is on camera talking about being tired and fatigued during games. As I sit in my office writing this and just thinking about running 40.5 routes per game, I get it. But then again, I could do that for $41M guaranteed. Anyway, back to my philosophy of holding on to players when it comes to fantasy assets.

First off, a WR room of Reed, Addison, Pittman, Thomas Jr., and McLaurin looks good now. But it sure didn’t two weeks ago. 

Jayden Daniels couldn’t throw over five yards. Jordan Love would be out for an unknown length of time. Somehow, Addison contracted some sort of ankle injury that was contagious, as his previous ankle sprain spread to the other side. 

Simply put, we valued all of them differently. And we’ll keep adjusting our prices every week. So, I’ll push back on the idea any WR room doesn’t need depth unless you’re in an eight-person league. However, that’s not the only thing to consider.

I was playing around with our Trade Analyzer tool to see who I could get in return for Jeudy. The “not-in-my-league” brigade will insist this deal isn’t possible. And, normally, I’d agree. Of course, as a Bengals fan, I’m biased. 

A WR attached to Deshaun Watson along with a backup RB for Cincinnati’s WR2? Lol. Lmao, even.

However, making the offer is the first (i.e., correct) step. The “one person’s trash is someone else’s treasure” adage comes to mind here. So, before thinking we can drop a (potentially) productive player, check their trade value and see if you can keep your roster strong throughout the remainder of the season.