In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Knockaround:
This feels like a pivotal week with a ton of moving parts—injured players exiting, new players stepping into opportunity, and star players returning to action.
The fantasy playoffs will kick off in a month, which means it’s now or never to position your team for the playoffs.
Our crew has you covered with all of the news you need to know, utilization trends to capitalize on, and waiver adds to sneak on your roster.
Let’s get to it …
🚑️ Injury updates:
As if things couldn’t get any worse for Dallas, Dak Prescott is now expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. Cooper Rush is a serviceable backup and should be able to keep CeeDee Lamb in the Top-12 WR convo.
A.J. Brown’s knee injury isn’t believed to be serious. He’s officially day-to-day. Phew.
Good news for Drake London, as well. The hip pointer he suffered on Sunday isn’t serious and he’s also day-to-day.
We got word of two hits for the Bengals with Zack Moss out indefinitely (neck) and intriguing rookie TE Erick All headed to IR (ACL). The Chase Brown rocketship ain’t coming back to Earth anytime soon.
❌ Heads roll in New Orleans. After an embarrassing loss to the Panthers, the Saints canned their curmudgeon of a head coach, Dennis Allen. Not sure how that solves their QB issues, but
📆 When will they return?
It’s hard to trust the Niners on anything involving CMC’s health after what transpired at the start of the season, but it sounds like he has a legit shot to play this week vs. the Bucs. Don’t cry because it’s over Jordan Mason managers, smile because it happened.
I was hoping for better news on Nico Collins. This update is somewhat cryptic on his chances to return to action in Week 10, so we’ll have to monitor throughout the week.
On the other hand, Panthers rookie RB Jonathon Brooks is expected to make his debut on Sunday vs. the Giants. Hallelujah.
👋 QB updates for IND & LV. Despite a very rough outing on SNF, the Colts are committed to Joe Flacco. He has another rough matchup on tap vs. BUF, but this is good news for the WRs. The Raiders, on the other hand, are non-committal.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: Endangered species
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 10 Waiver Wire Adds
- Watercooler: Bling bling
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report from Week 9
Week 10 Utilization Report
Endangered Species: The Cheetah and the Penguin.
De'Von Achane and Jonnu Smith have poached Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle's targets since the bye week.
- Jonnu Smith: 22% targets
- De'Von Achane: 21% targets
- Tyreek Hill: 19% targets
- Jaylen Waddle: 12% targets
Over that three-game stretch, Smith has become a near-every-down tight end with a 76% route participation rate, and Achane has dominated the passing-down duties in the backfield at 68%. This is a dilemma that Hill and Waddle have never dealt with before in Miami. Historically, most of the targets consolidated around them.
Combined target shares for Hill and Waddle:
- 2022: 31% + 21% = 52%
- 2023: 32% + 23% = 55%
- 2024: 23% + 16% = 39%
The Dolphins' offense has evolved, and Hill and Waddle's weekly floor has been lowered. While it is essential to recalibrate our expectations around the duo, they both still have astronomically high ceilings, as always. Remember that these trends don't always hold, so we could also see a big bounce-back from the duo–especially if defenses start paying more attention to Smith and Achane.
Over the last two games with these changes and Tua Tagovailoa back under center, Hill has a 7.2 Utilization Score, and Waddle sits at 4.8.
Those numbers suggest massive downgrades for the duo, but we must consider their multi-year history and talent profiles, which says don't overreact (yet).
Hill is HOLDING STEADY as a high-end WR1, but his weekly floor is now a WR3. Waddle still offers WR1 spike-week upside, but he DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory.
More Utilization Report Takeaways
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Week 10 Adds
Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers (20% rostered)
Quentin Johnston returned to the lineup for the Chargers after suffering an ankle injury in Week 6 that sidelined him for the last two games. In his return on Sunday, he had 4 receptions for 118 yards and 1 touchdown, which was good for 22 fantasy points. Obviously Ladd McConkey is the WR1 in this offense, but Johnston has really bounced back from an atrocious rookie season. He had a 71% route participation and 19% target share, and lived up to the expectations we had from the waiver wire shoutout last week.
The Chargers are also allowing quarterback Justin Herbert to throw a bit more (he finished with 27 pass attempts against the Browns). If this trend continues then Johnston could have a solid floor the rest of the way.
Drake Maye, QB, Patriots (11% rostered)
Look, it isn't sexy, but with the bye weeks and the injury to Dak Prescott, you might need a quarterback and Drake Maye is very available. He did not have the best showing against the Tennessee Titans, but he still walked away with 15.74 fantasy points because of the rushing upside he offers. He had 8 carries for 95 yards and that's exactly the thing we want to chase from our waiver wire quarterbacks. The Patriots take on a Chicago Bears defense that could give him some trouble, but I think he's worth the risk if you're desperate.
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🤝 Dwain and Ian break down the Utilization Report and Waiver Wire Targets.
📣 Jason Kelce addresses the incident. Pure class.
🐬 The real Dolphins WR1? Week 9 Overreactions.
💎 Bling bling. Don’t question Justin Jefferson.
❓Bye weeks and injuries have you scrambling? The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool is here to help.
🙌 Need a Tight End? We’ve got your covered.
🤷 What happened with DJ Moore on this play? Weird stuff.
Week 9 Sheesh Report: Hard Day For Trey McBride
by Ian Hartitz
Poor Trey McBride
The Cardinals' stud TE managed to score his first TD of 2024 in Week 9, but it came courtesy of a rush attempt at the goal line. As a pass catcher, McBride has an NFL-high 60 targets without a TD this season.
Of course, this is hardly all his fault. Look no further than the below goal-line, play-action pass that featured McBride WIDE open for roughly 15 minutes in the back of the end zone, only for Kyler Murray to apparently not see him before it was too late.
I know the world loves to make short jokes at Kyler's expense, but in this case, it's truly hard to figure out why the ball came out so late … other than because the alleged 5-foot-10 QB couldn't see his wide-open TE over the line of scrimmage.
Ultimately, the Cardinals are sitting pretty at 5-4 and in first place in the NFC West, while McBride is the TE3 in PPR points per game: Life is still pretty, pretty, pretty good for both Cardinals fans and McBride's fantasy managers.
That said: Sheesh.
Naturally, McBride wasn't the only pass catcher to miss out on what seemed like a sure 6 points due to a bad throw by their QB.
Would have been a lot cooler if these passes were better
I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 10 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were quite a few instances that stuck out:
- Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (70, blown coverage meant that a perfect throw had a chance for a LOT of YAC)
- Patriots WR DeMario Douglas (67, but wasn't exactly a layup)
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (39, did catch the underthrow for 28 yards)
- Broncos WR Troy Franklin (33)
- Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert (30, but did finish the drive with a 4-yard TD)
- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (14)
- Texans WR John Metchie (9)
- Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. (4)
- Broncos WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (2)
- Cardinals TE Trey McBride (1)
You might have noticed that three separate Broncos made the above list. While last week I highlighted Bo Nix's pass catchers leaving some yards on the field at his expense, the opposite was true for most of Week 9 against the Ravens.
So yeah, these pass catchers were let down a bit by their QB—but sometimes the opposite is true.
Dropped TDs, nullified scores, and more sheeshy moments from Week 9
