In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
The NFL trade deadline is still a week away, but we’ve already enjoyed a flurry of blockbuster moves:
- Amari Cooper to the Bills
- Davante Adams to the Jets
- DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs
And if reports are true, we might not be done with the WRs on the move.
Adam Schefter expects Panthers WR Diontae Johnson to be traded before the deadline.
It definitely makes sense for the hopeless Panthers (who can’t even decide who to start at QB) and the veteran WR to go their separate ways, so now it’s time to speculate where he could end up.
Hilariously, one of the most WR-needy teams (the Steelers) are not eligible to trade back for Johnson.
Last week I floated the Bucs as a team who could be in the market for a WR—and Johnson would be a perfect replacement for Chris Godwin.
The best fit, though, might be the Texans. They are likely going to lose Stefon Diggs to a season-ending injury and Johnson would slide right in and be able to immediately backfill his vacated targets.
With Johnson likely gone, there is a WR sleeper on the Panthers who definitely needs to be stashed. Check out Kendall’s waiver wire column for the goods …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: There’s Life In Cleveland
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 9 Waiver Wire Adds
- Watercooler: Injury updates
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report from Week 8
Week 9 Utilization Report
The Browns receivers have life with Jameis Winston.
Deshaun Watson averaged a lackluster 170 yards per game in his six full games this season. Historically, that sort of passing production has made things extremely difficult on a receiving corps. Since 2011, there have only been 17 teams that averaged less than 175 yards per game, and they produced zero top-24 WRs in fantasy.
Enter Jameis Winston, who shredded the Ravens for 334 yards and three passing TDs. Was the matchup ideal? Yes. Can we expect Winston to throw for 300 yards every week? No. However, make no mistake: this is a massive upgrade for the Browns' passing attack that is here to stay. For his career, Winston has delivered 277 yards in games with at least 90% of the snaps.
Below is a table illustrating how often we get a WR1 (1 to 12), WR2 (13 to 24), WR3, or WR4 season finish based on a team's passing yards per game, based on data since 2011. With Watson, the Browns were sitting in the bottom bucket, where 0% of WRs enjoyed a WR1 or WR2 campaign. However, with Winston, the second and third buckets are reasonable targets for this attack.
Cedric Tillman
Tillman was the Browns' third-round pick out of Tennessee in 2023. Last week, he was one of the top waiver wire writeups, labeled as a WR3 with upside should Winston start. Tillman has posted 16.1 and 28.9 fantasy points in the last two games without Amari Cooper.
Over that span, he has a mouth-watering 8.9 Utilization Score. He is second on the team in route participation (87%) and targets (24%) while leading the team in air yards (35%) and end-zone targets (38%).
No other WR has climbed more in Utilization Score over the last four games, and his historical comps have been excellent.
- WR1 to 12 finishes: 84%
- WR13 to 24 finishes: 14%
- WR25 to 36 finishes: 2%
We only have a two-game sample, so we want to be careful with the comps, but at a minimum, it tells us what his upside looks like, which is a WR1.
Tillman UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status and offers WR1 upside. He is available in 80% of Yahoo leagues and could be the WAIVER WIRE ADD OF THE YEAR. This is an all-in FAAB moment (50%-plus)—especially if you need WR help.
Elijah Moore
Moore has been a colossal disappointment in fantasy ever since teasing us with 18.9 points per game over a six-week stretch as a rookie in 2021. However, he has never played with a quality quarterback and leads the team with a 25% target share without Cooper. While his air yards (19%) and end-zone targets (13%) aren't as strong as Tillman's, Moore has a rapport with Winston and has a strong Utilization Score of 7.0.
I am slightly more skeptical of Moore's comp group's high-end because we have a multi-year track record of underperformance. However, he did flash as a rookie and is young enough to keep an open mind.
- WR1 to 12 finishes: 6%
- WR13 to 24 finishes: 35%
- WR25 to 36 finishes: 37%
- WR37 to 48 finishes: 21%
Moore UPGRADES to high-end WR4 status, and WR3 upside isn't unrealistic. Moore is available in 99% of leagues. He is a viable add in medium-sized to deeper leagues (10-15% FAAB).
Jerry Jeudy
Jeudy hasn't lived up to his first-round draft capital as an NFL WR, but he gets one more opportunity to rebound with Winston reviving the passing attack. The fifth-year WR leads the team in route participation (99%) since the departure of Cooper, but his target share is third (16%). Jeudy has a 5.7 Utilization Score, where his comps have struggled to find relevance, but there are some positive outliers.
- WR 1 to 12 finishes: 0%
- WR 13 to 24 finishes: 5%
- WR 25 to 36 finishes: 15%
- WR 37 to 48 finishes: 37%
There is a chance Jeudy will get more in the mix over the next few games, but his target shares with Winston closely mirror what we have seen for his career. Still, he is a young former first-round pick with playmaking ability when the ball is in his hands.
Jeudy UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory and has an outside shot at WR3 production.
Nerd Note: I have seen a lot of talk about the upcoming schedule against the Chargers, Saints, Steelers, and Broncos as a reason for concern about these WRs. Don't let that push you off of them–especially Tillman. Regarding the schedule, we only care about outlier matchups (good and bad), and the Broncos are the only qualifiers on that list. The Chargers look good on paper, but have faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL (LV, CAR, PIT, KC, DEN, ARI, NO).
More Utilization Report Takeaways
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Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups
Jameis Winston, QB, Browns (6% rostered)
Well, hello Jameis Winston! The Browns lost Deshaun Watson for the season, but it was obvious on Sunday that Winston elevated this team to another level. The Browns scored a season-high 29 points behind Winston's three touchdown passes and 334 yards against the Baltimore Ravens.
Watson hadn’t reached 200 yards passing in a game all season, but with Winston at quarterback, the offense felt energized and many offensive weapons got in on the fun. The ceiling is always there with Jameis for a 300-yard passing game every week and that's something they didn't have with Watson and why we have to upgrade this offense. The Browns take on the Chargers before their bye in Week 10. Scoop up Jameis if you need quarterback help heading into this week.
Isaac Guerendo, RB, 49ers (8% rostered)
Jordan Mason went down with a shoulder injury against the Cowboys on Sunday night, but picking up Isaac Guerendo is purely a stash play. The 49ers are on a bye in Week 9 and it has been reported that Christian McCaffrey is still on track to return to the team in Week 10. We never want injuries, but if anything were to happen in McCaffrey's return (and if Mason isn't available) then Guerendo would get a ton of work.
🤝 Dwain and Ian break down the Utilization Report and Waiver Wire Targets.
😆 Ian, Chris, and Charch get into it all on the Week 8 Recap and Overreactions.
🚑️ Injury updates. Brian Thomas Jr., Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Tee Higgins, CMC, DK Metcalf,
❓Bye weeks and injuries have you scrambling? The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool is here to help.
🙌 National Tight Ends Day saw some breakout players. Can you trust them?
🤔 Could the Colts make a switch at QB? Time will tell.
🤩 Look who is a Commanders fan. Alright alright alright.
Week 8 Sheesh Report: Just a Bit Outside
by Ian Hartitz
The Ravens had themselves a sheeshy Sunday afternoon
There were a number of factors that led to Baltimore losing to the Jameis Winston-led Browns in Week 8. Plenty of that was simply Cleveland putting forward its best team-wide performance of the season, but let's face it: The Ravens shot themselves in the foot several times across 60 minutes of action.
Specifically:
Lamar Jackson missed an open Zay Flowers for a potential 31-yard TD on a 2nd-quarter drive that ended in a field goal.
Jackson overthrew a wide-open Isaiah Likely on what looked to have the chance to go 86 yards to the house on a 4th-quarter drive that ended in a punt.
Rashod Bateman committed one of the more brutal drops of the season by letting a potential 50-yard gain bounce right off his facemask and fall incomplete. To be fair, the sun seemingly was in his eyes and caused the sheesh.
The Ravens defense dropped not one, not two, but three separate interceptions on drives that ultimately ended with the Browns scoring 10 points. Baltimore also dropped three interceptions in Week 4 against the Bills; the Ravens are the only defense to accomplish this "feat" in 2024 and currently have a league-high eight dropped INTs–no other defense has more than five.
Not great for a team that was previously flying high on the back of five straight wins while largely looking like one of the single-best teams in the NFL. Say it with me everyone: Sheesh.
Of course, Jackson and Co. weren't the only team to be undone by some sheeshy moments in Week 8.
Cut Anthony Richardson just a little bit of slack
Because his receivers didn't exactly help him out in Week 8. Overall, both WR Adonai Mitchell (from 28 yards out) and RB Tyler Goodson (25) failed to corral well-thrown end-zone targets from Anthony Richardson that should have resulted in six points.
There were a handful of other close calls from Colts pass catchers that unfortunately weren't completed. Overall, Indy receivers came down with one catch on eight contested targets in Week 8, and they have the sixth-worst rate on the season (41%).
The Broncos also stuck out as pass catchers who let multiple potential big plays go right through their hands, but Bo Nix still managed to have a pretty damn good game regardless.
Not ideal! Of course, these weren't the only passing games to leave quite a bit of meat on the bone.
