There are undoubtedly some really good divisions in the NFL this season. The NFC South… does not figure to be one of them.

Still, just because a division looks weak on paper doesn’t mean it can’t be exciting. We saw that play out last year, with three teams battling for the division crown right down to the end of the season. The Bucs managed to prevail at 9-8, advancing via a tiebreaker over the Saints.

A poor division also can provide us with some betting value. Let’s dive into my favorite wager for all four NFC South squads.

ATLANTA FALCONS

  • Win Total: 9.5 Over (-135; DraftKings), Under (+120; Caesars)
  • To Make Playoffs: Yes (-185; BetMGM), No (+170; DraftKings)
  • To Win Division: -130 (DraftKings)
  • To Win NFC: +1300 (DraftKings)
  • To Win Super Bowl: +3000 (DraftKings)

The Falcons entered last year with sizable expectations. Their win total was set at 8.5, thanks in large part to their schedule. They were slated to face the second-easiest group of opponents based on preseason win totals, and they ended up facing the fourth-easiest group of opponent pass defenses. With an excellent offensive line, a few blue-chip skill-position players and an improving defense, it was easy to project this team for more success than in years past.

With that in mind, their seven-win campaign was a major disappointment.

Of course, it doesn’t matter how many things go right for you if you can’t get the job done at quarterback. It’s the most important position in all of professional sports, and the Falcons got abysmal play from both Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke in 2023. Ridder earned the worst PFF grade among qualified quarterbacks, while Heinicke wasn’t much better: He finished below guys like Bryce Young and Jarrett Stidham in his limited appearances.

Changing from that duo to Kirk Cousins has the potential to be one of the biggest upgrades in the league. Cousins may not be a truly elite quarterback, but he’s very good when healthy. He was ninth among qualified QBs in PFF grade last season and fifth in EPA + CPOE composite.

If Cousins can elevate the Falcons passing attack, this team should win a lot of games in 2024. The defense was the best in football at stopping the run last season, and their pass defense should be improved as well. Their secondary is strong, but their big issue was pressuring the quarterback. They were dead last in ESPN’s pass rush win rate in 2023, so they couldn’t get enough heat on opposing QBs.

Adding Matthew Judon should help tremendously. They were able to trade for him from the Patriots, who are already waiving the white flag on their season. He was limited to just four games last year, but he had at least 12.5 sacks in his previous two campaigns.

The one real concern with the Falcons is that they’re (hopefully) going to get nothing out of their 2024 first-round pick. Using the No. 8 pick on Michael Penix instead of another pass-rusher or impact defender qualifies as a head-scratcher at best and an organizational disaster at worst. I’m higher than most on Penix’s long-term prospects, but if you’re trying to win, using a lottery pick on a backup quarterback is an extremely poor use of assets.

Still, the Falcons should be able to breeze through another really easy schedule. They have the easiest schedule in the league in terms of opponent win totals, and unlike in 2023 they also have a +5-day rest edge over their opponents.

If you’re looking to buy the Falcons, I think betting them to win the division is the way to go. Their division odds and the over on 9.5 wins are priced very similarly, and I think there are a few additional scenarios where they can win the division with just nine wins. We saw that come to fruition with the Bucs last year, so I think it gives us a few extra outs and saves us five cents of juice.

Bets

  • Falcons to Win Division (-130)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

  • Win Total: 7.5 Over (-140; Caesars), Under (+122; FanDuel)
  • To Make Playoffs: Yes (+152; FanDuel), No (-180; Caesars)
  • To Win Division: +320 (DraftKings)
  • To Win NFC: +3500 (FanDuel)
  • To Win Super Bowl: +9000 (Caesars)

Baker Mayfield was one of the best stories in the NFL last year. Everyone loves a good comeback story — shoutout Andy Dwyer — and Mayfield’s journey from Cleveland to Carolina to Los Angeles to Tampa Bay certainly qualifies. He posted career-bests in basically every category across the board and was able to propel the Bucs to the postseason. They even managed to beat the Eagles and scare the Lions in the playoffs, so the narrative on Mayfield and the Bucs have completely flipped heading into 2024.

Unfortunately, when diving under the hood, it’s hard to imagine that success continuing.

While Mayfield’s final numbers look good, how he got there seems a bit fluky. Mayfield was extremely successful on third and fourth down — No. 6 among QBs in EPA per attempt — but he was as unproductive as ever on early downs (30th in EPA per attempt). Consistently overperforming in high-leverage situations is tough to duplicate year-to-year, so I’d expect some regression moving forward.

Mayfield also got very little help from the run game last season. The Bucs were dead last in run block win rate, and Rachaad White wasn’t helping, either. White may be a strong fantasy asset, but don’t confuse fantasy production with real-life skill. Among 49 RBs with at least 100 carries last season, White ranked 47th in success rate, 42nd in EPA per attempt and 42nd in yards created after contact. In other words, the offensive line wasn’t doing him any favors, but it’s not like White was making the most of it, either.

The Bucs do project to have two new starters on their offensive line in 2024. They drafted center Graham Barton in the first round of the 2024 draft and signed guard Ben Bredeson in free agency. Bredeson was PFF’s No. 74 guard out of 79 qualifiers, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll be a huge upgrade.

Defensively, the Bucs are average. They were excellent against the run but subpar against the pass, which is not an ideal combination. Unlike the Falcons, they were unable to address their defense much in the offseason, with safety Jordan Whitehead standing out as the only new projected starter. White was PFF’s No. 39 safety last year, so he doesn’t stand out as a huge improvement.

Ultimately, this stands out as a prime team to fade in 2024. Their win total is available at under 7.5 across most of the industry, but you can find some 8.5s as well. The under on the 7.5s are available at plus-money — with +122 on FanDuel standing out as the best number — while the under on 8.5 is roughly -175. I’d rather shoot for the slightly bigger payout.

Bets

  • Under 7.5 Wins (+122)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

  • Win Total: 7.5 Over (-110; Caesars), Under (+100; DraftKings)
  • To Make Playoffs: Yes (+180; FanDuel), No (-210; DraftKings)
  • To Win Division: +550 (FanDuel)
  • To Win NFC: +4500 (DraftKings)
  • To Win Super Bowl: +10000 (Caesars)

The Saints feel very similar to the Buccaneers in 2024. They’re both coming off nine-win seasons. They both have questionable backfields. They both have subpar head coaches. Dennis Allen has won less than 35% of his games as a head coach, and he’s been just as bad against the spread. He owns a career 27-41-2 ATS record (39.7%), making him the third-least profitable coach since 2003. Only Mike Shanahan and John Gruden lost bettors more money over that time frame, and those guys at least have Super Bowl rings to fall back on.

As for the Saints roster, calling it “weirdly constructed” would be a nice way to put it. No team is spending more money at running back or tight end, so you would expect that they would be getting elite production from those positions. That’s not remotely close to the case.

Let’s start at running back. Alvin Kamara was once one of the most feared skill-position players in football, but those days appear over. He averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry last season, and his trademark explosiveness has all but disappeared. On 180 carries last year, his longest gain was somehow just 17 yards. He also averaged a career-low 5.4 yards per target last season, so his efficiency as a pass-catcher is also on the decline.

The situation at tight end is a bit more complicated because of Taysom Hill. Hill is technically a TE, but he’s being paid like a backup quarterback. He’ll count for nearly $10M towards the cap this season, which is a lot of money to pay a gadget player.

Hill can do a lot of things on a football field, and I would argue that they should use him more than they already do. Still, it’s hard to argue that he’s a bargain at his current salary.

With so much money tied up in luxury items, the Saints need to get better production from Derek Carr this season. Carr is like a Ferrari, and I mean that in the most insulting way possible. When the conditions are perfect, taking Carr out for a spin is enjoyable. He’s excellent when he’s not under pressure and throwing on early downs, but he struggles mightily when under duress or in obvious passing situations.

Can the Saints give Carr ideal circumstances all season? I doubt it. The Saints will play another easy schedule in 2024, but it’s not going to be nearly as easy as the one they played last season. If they could only win nine games last year, it’s hard to imagine them improving upon that mark in 2024. I see seven wins as the most likely outcome, though I’m less excited to fade them than I am the Bucs.

Bets

  • Under 7.5 Wins (+100)

CAROLINA PANTHERS

  • Win Total: 5.5 Over (-115; Caesars), Under (+105; BetMGM)
  • To Make Playoffs: Yes (+650; BetMGM), No (-750; FanDuel)
  • To Win Division: +1200 (BetMGM)
  • To Win NFC: +12000 (DraftKings)
  • To Win Super Bowl: +25000 (BetMGM)

As bad as you remember Young’s rookie season, it was probably worse. It was a historically bad debut season, let alone for a QB drafted first overall. Out of the last 26 QBs drafted to play at least 300 snaps as a rookie, Young finished 25th in EPA per attempt, 25th in yards per attempt and 24th in success rate. His closest comparables were all-time busts like Josh Rosen, Zach Wilson and Blake Bortles, and when Bortles is the success story of the group, it’s pretty darn bleak.

It wasn’t just that Young was bad; he couldn’t even do the easy stuff right. Things like throwing with a clean pocket, early-down throws and throws where the ball comes out before 2.5 seconds are supposed to be gimmes for NFL quarterbacks. Young ranked 40th or worse among 48 qualified QBs in each metric.

When you factor in what the Panthers traded to acquire Young — essentially Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore and additional draft capital — and the fact that C.J. Stroud was selected second, it could go down as the worst pick in NFL history. That’s not hyperbole.

As pessimistic as I am about Young’s prospects, we should expect to see some improvement in 2024. Historically, quarterbacks have made their biggest statistical jump from their freshman to sophomore seasons, and Young will have much more working for him in Year 2. The team spent big on the offensive line in free agency, and they acquired two new pass-catchers in Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette. They also used a draft pick on the best running back in the 2024 class, although it’s unclear how much Jonathan Brooks will help the team in 2024.

Add it all up, and the Panthers went from spending the least amount of cap dollars on their offense in 2023 to the 10th-most in 2024. Whether or not that money was spent wisely remains to be seen, but they’re at least giving their young QB a chance.

It’s easy to forecast another dismal year for Carolina, but I think they could be a bit better than expected. With the Bucs and Saints both looking like regression candidates, they could steal some divisional wins. They’ll also have winnable games against the Raiders, Commanders, Broncos, Giants and Cardinals, in addition to whichever teams underperform or deal with injuries.

While I’m certainly not bullish on the Panthers, I don’t think it should surprise anyone if they’re slightly better than they were last season. It’s hard to win less than six games in the NFL, so I’m going to give them the slightest of overs for 2024.

Bets

  • Over 5.5 wins (-115)