Ian Hartitz plays NFL GM and projects one free agent move for each AFC team during the offseason.

Free agency is right around the corner—let's talk some ball!

What follows is *one* free agency wish for every AFC team based on each squad's biggest needs (see my “team needs” series here) and my own biased viewpoint on life itself.

As always: It's a great day to be great.  

Baltimore Ravens

  • Key needs: Cornerback, offensive line, WR3
  • Effective cap space: $9.7 million (22nd)
  • Free agency wish: Reunion SZN: Bring back Demarcus Robinson

This isn't the biggest issue in the world considering nobody used 11 personnel less than the Ravens (27.8%) in 2024, but at a minimum some depth should be added to the group either through the later rounds of the draft or via cheaper deals in free agency to handle potential losses to Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, and Diontae Johnson.

So why not try things again with D-Rob? The veteran caught a team-high seven scores last season—and looked good doing it!

Similar to his time in Los Angeles, Robinson wouldn't be expected to be more than a man-beater No. 3 WR to complement Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. That sort of setup seems best for the soon-to-be 31-year-old veteran.

Buffalo Bills

  • Key needs: Wide receiver, secondary, pass rush
  • Effective cap space: -$13.2 million (30th)
  • Free agency wish: Trade for Tee Higgins

Both Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins are hitting free agency, leaving Buffalo as one of just 12 teams with under $20 million devoted to the position ahead of 2025.

Look, Khalil Shakir is right at home as a shifty slot maven, and Keon Coleman was impressing with his opportunities before a midseason wrist injury largely doomed him the rest of the way. Still, it was clear during the team's latest playoff loss to Kansas City that a true difference-maker was needed on the outside—nothing about this passing game was overly easy all season long. Overall, the Bills ranked just 27th in average Open Score among its qualified WRs and TEs; nobody was consistently creating separation for Allen.

Enter: Higgins, whose blend of contested-catch goodness and YAC beastliness would provide Allen with essentially the guy the team is hoping Coleman can one day become. The longtime stud Bengal turned 26 in January and is fresh off catching a career-high 10 TDs in just 12 games.

A big swing? Sure, but one is needed to avoid, you know, losing to the Chiefs every January.

See our staff predictions for Higgins landing spots here

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Key needs: Pass catcher, offensive line, secondary
  • Effective cap space: $58.5 million (8th)
  • Free agency wish: Re-sign Mike Gesicki to make Joe Burrow happy

Or "Mike G" according to Burrow. The ex-Dolphin/Patriot found new life in Cincinnati last year, racking up his most yards since his 2020-21 seasons in Miami.

Gesicki can supply some big slot goodness while also more or less serving as Tee Higgins insurance considering the current franchise tag candidate has suffered a hamstring injury of some degree in each and every year since 2019. Just look at Gesicki's performance in five games with Higgins sidelined last season:

  • Week 1: 3 receptions-18 yards-0 TD (4 targets)
  • Week 2: 7-91-0 (9)
  • Week 8: 7-73-0 (8)
  • Week 9: 5-100-2 (6)
  • Week 10: 4-30-0 (9)

Now, Gesicki isn't really a TE considering he spent just 12% of his snaps inline last season, but that should only help Cincy's cause in getting some cheap-ish pass-game weapons outside of their two (hopefully soon to be) high-priced WRs. After all, the 29-year-old TE signed a miniscule one-year, $2.5 million contract last offseason.

Cleveland Browns

  • Key needs: Quarterback, wide receiver, running back
  • Effective cap space: -$32.5 million (31st)
  • Free agency wish: Reunite Kirk Cousins with Kevin Stefanski.

There's reportedly mutual interest between Cousins and Stefanski getting the band back together. Their last go-round came in 2019 and featured Cousins putting together one of the more efficient seasons of his career, although getting to throw to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen certainly helped matters.

On the one hand, Cousins wasn't very good in 2024. On the other hand, the bar couldn't be lower in Cleveland. It's almost impressive how many horrendous QBs this franchise has managed to employ in recent years.

EPA per dropback among 50 qualified QBs in 2023-24 seasons:

Cousins ranked sixth and 18th in EPA per dropback over the past two seasons, with the latter mark certainly being influenced by the 36-year-old's return from his Achilles tear. Perhaps we see the veteran take a step forward in the mobility and arm strength departments an extra year removed from the injury, but at the same time … would this move really move the needle for Cleveland?

Consider: Stefanski has achieved his most success in Cleveland with strong armed, play-action friendly QBs like Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston constantly threatening defenses vertically. It's fair to say this was a rather glaring weakness from Cousins last year.

 

Denver Broncos

  • Key needs: Wide receiver, running back, tight end
  • Effective cap space: $38.6 million (16th)
  • Free agency wish: Sign Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to a one-year rental

This might not be the sexiest free agent pairing, but I also won't stand for any NWI slander. The five-year veteran didn't score nine TDs by accident last season after all. The 6-foot-3, 216-pound WR fits the bigger mold that Sean Payton is always talking about, and the man isn't exactly a pure possession receiver either.

Sure, some of the scores were of the blown-coverage variety; just realize Westbrook-Ikhine accounting for 27% of the team's offensive TDs is pretty, pretty, pretty wild. Overall, NWI just became the second WR in the last 30-plus years to catch nine TDs on 60 or fewer targets, and he was one of just 10 WRs in 2024 to average at least 2.25 PPR points per target.

Maybe the man is good at football!

Houston Texans

The season ending injuries to Stefon Diggs (free agent) and Tank Dell leave Houston looking at a potential Week 1 trio of Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie at the moment. Collins is a legit No. 1 WR, but the latter two youngsters have just 60 career receptions combined to their names.

Overall, Collins, Metchie, and Dell represent the team's only three top-100 draft picks at the position since 2016! Adding some depth at some stage of the draft is paramount, while it also might behoove the organization to continue to take advantage of Stroud's rookie contract by again investing in a veteran at the position … so why not look to one of his former Ohio State buddies!

After all, both Wilson and Olave have more than done enough during the early portions of their respective careers to earn a BIG investment somewhere.

Indianapolis Colts

Note that this is not necessarily in the Colts' best interests, but dammit: If wanting to see Richardson get a real shot as the franchise QB is wrong, I don't want to be right.

And yet, it might take a lesser journeyman type like Brissett for Frank Reich to warrant an extended leash for the former No. 4 overall pick. After all, Richardson's career 50.6% completion percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among 210 QBs with 300-plus pass attempts since 2000. This is NOT good company.

The highs have been high. Richardson capped off his second drive of the season with maybe the single-best throw of 2024:

Comeback victories over the Jets and Patriots later in the year showed off the clutch gene and the 22-year-old's ability to be an absolute bulldozer along the goal line.

Unfortunately, those highs were complemented by far too many lows, with the down point of the season being Richardson pulling himself off the field following a scramble because he was tired.

Add it all together, and we're looking at quite easily the league's least accurate QB from 2024.

Of course, Richardson's rushing prowess continued to largely save the day in fantasy: Only Jalen Hurts has averaged more fantasy points per game from purely rushing production (9.3) than Richardson (8.2) over the past two seasons. His average of 0.6 fantasy points per dropback ranked fifth behind only Lamar Jackson, Hurts, Josh Allen, and Justin Fields last season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Key needs: Offensive line, pass catcher, secondary
  • Effective cap space: $30.8 million (18th)
  • Free agency wish: Spend on that offensive line!

PFF's reigning 19th-ranked offensive line ranked 29th in yards before contact per carry and allowed the second quickest average time to pressure. This has been an ongoing issue throughout Trevor Lawrence's NFL career. Look no further than the Jaguars' ranks in "Supporting Cast Rating" which takes the average of every team's PFF rushing, receiving, run blocking, and pass blocking grades (everything but passing):

  • 2021: 28th
  • 2022: 20th
  • 2023: 30th
  • 2024: 24th

The interior seems particularly dicey:

Starting tackles Walker Little and Anton Harrison are probably fine enough to roll with moving forward and (perhaps not coincidentally) represent the team's only offensive lineman selected inside the first two rounds across the last five drafts. More, please.

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Key needs: Running back, pass catcher, offensive line
  • Effective cap space: $4.4 million (24th)
  • Free agency wish: Re-sign Hollywood Brown

Antonio Brown's cousin unfortunately missed the bulk of 2024 due to a dislocated sternoclavicular joint. Fireworks didn't exactly follow, as the artist known as Hollywood posted relatively underwhelming 5-45-0, 4-46-0, 0-0-0, 3-35-0, and 2-15-0 receiving lines in his only five games with Kansas City.

And yet, Brown worked as the PPR WR5 during the first six weeks of 2022 the last time that he was truly healthy. We’re talking about a 122-1,374-9 pace here — and the dude looked good while doing it.

Patrick Mahomes had all sorts of good things to say about Brown last offseason, and the lack of availability probably means there won't suddenly be a newfound big-dollar deal elsewhere to lure him away. Every Chiefs WR not named Xaiver Worthy or Rashee Rice to earn even 10 targets last year is an unrestricted free agent–and that's before considering what life could look like should Travis Kelce choose to hang up the cleats. Bringing back Hollywood would be a reasonably-priced first step in helping rekindle this suddenly not-so-lethal passing game.

Las Vegas Raiders

  • Key needs: Quarterback, offensive line, secondary
  • Effective cap space: $92.8 million (2nd)
  • Free agency wish: Bring in Rico Dowdle to potentially lead the backfield

It's fair to look at any RB-needy team and conclude they should simply rebuild the position through the draft, but Dowdle deserves some love as well.

The former undrafted free agent emerged as a perfectly solid RB despite working behind the league's 31st-ranked offensive line in yards before contact per carry.

Dowdle among 31 RBs with 150-plus carries in 2024:

  • Yards per carry: 4.6 (No. 10)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 3.3 (No. 10)
  • Yards over expected per carry: +0.3 (No. 16)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 19.1% (No. 15)
  • Explosive run rate: 8.1% (No. 15)

The consistency behind Dowdle's ability to pick up yards after contact was particularly impressive: He led the entire NFL in percentage of carries to gain at least three yards after contact (51%) in 2024–something that would surely be appreciated by Mr. Pete Carroll and company in Vegas.

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Key needs: Playmaker, defensive line, cornerback
  • Effective cap space: $62.2 million (6th)
  • Free agency wish: Re-sign J.K. Dobbins to work as one piece of the backfield

On the one hand, Chargers RBs as a whole simply weren't very good in 2024:

  • 25th in tackles avoided per carry
  • 21st in yards after contact per carry
  • 21st in explosive rush rate

On the other hand, it was alarming how much more efficient Dobbins (4.6 yards per carry) was over Gus Bus (3.6) and Vidal (3.6) alike. Maybe we didn't see Dobbins flash the same sort of long speed that was regularly on display during his days at Ohio State, but this was still a good RB!

Most rush yards over expected per carry in 2024 (min. 175 carries):

  1. Derrick Henry (+1.77)
  2. Saquon Barkley (+1.62)
  3. Chuba Hubbard (+11.16)
  4. Bucky Irving (+0.94)
  5. Jahmyr Gibbs (+0.91)
  6. James Cook (+0.82)
  7. Josh Jacobs (+0.73)
  8. Bijan Robinson (+0.66)
  9. Jonathan Taylor (+0.61)
  10. J.K. Dobbins (+0.6)

Dobbins' last deal with the Chargers included just $50,000 in guaranteed money. A bigger salary will certainly be warranted this time around, but hey, Los Angeles certainly has plenty of room to dish out some extra cash at the moment. Why not do so for the team's reigning leading rusher and alternate captain?

Miami Dolphins

  • Key needs: Interior offensive line, interior defensive line, safety
  • Effective cap space: -$6.7 million (27th)
  • Free agency wish: Throw some money at the offensive line

Starting guards Liam Eichenberg and Robert Jones are both free agents, and honestly the team's ability to threaten defenses up the middle wasn't good enough to begin with.

Overall, the Dolphins o-line ranked 26th in rush yards before contact per carry and gave up the single-quickest average time to pressure. There's only so much Tua and Miami's skill-position playmakers can do when winning the line of scrimmage is never guaranteed.

New England Patriots

  • Key needs: Offensive line, wide receiver, pass rush
  • Effective cap space: $120.3 million (1st)
  • Free agency wish: Trade for D.K. Metcalf

Patriots WRs and TEs ranked 31st in average "Open Score" last season. Translation: Separation didn't come easy to anyone, so restocking the WR room is a must. Hell, adding another TE isn't the worst idea in the world either considering Hunter Henry isn't exactly a spring chicken these days (turned 30 in December), although his three-year, $30 million extension last March reflects the reality that New England is probably good there.

But yeah: Patriots WRs ranked dead last in receiving yards (1,723) last season–the sixth-lowest single-season mark among any offense since 2020. Whether it's chasing Metcalf, Tee Higgins, or devoting multiple high-end draft picks to the position in the draft: Let's get Maye some actual elite talent on the outside and see what happens.

New York Jets

  • Key needs: Quarterback, offensive line, secondary
  • Effective cap space: $18.2 million (21st)
  • Free agency wish: Give Jameis Winston the long leash he deserves

We need SOMEONE to bite the bullet here and give the world what we want. It's been five long, cold years since Winston started more than seven games in a season. While the results have certainly been up and down for the fearless gunslinger, the fact that he's indeed produced plenty of the former variable is more than a lot of signal-callers can say.

Consider: Winston averaged 291.1 passing yards per game in his seven starts last season — that was better than the NFL's leading passer Joe Burrow (289.3)! Leading the league in turnover-worthy play rate (5.2%) was far from ideal, but big-time performances against the Ravens (334-3-0) and Broncos (497-4-3) reflected the reality that there remains a ceiling worth chasing here.

Of course, for all of Winston's faults, he has consistently proven capable of enabling high-end WRs. Just look at Jerry Jeudy's performance last season.

Bringing Winston into New York wouldn't necessarily be guaranteed to improve the Jets' real life aspirations, but his presence sure would be great for: 1.) Garrett Wilson, 2.) America, and 3.) Red Zone viewers of all shapes and sizes. 

Would this pairing make the Jets any less of a joke than they usually are? Probably not, but at least this time that joke would be funny!

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Key needs: Quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line
  • Effective cap space: $56.9 million (9th)
  • Free agency wish: Make Justin Fields the clear-cut QB1

Similar to the Colts section: This is more so a desire for Fields' fantasy-friendly nature to get a full-time role as opposed to a move that is guaranteed to help the Steelers' real life winning aspirations.

After all, we have to go all the way back to Fields' rookie season to find the last time he was anything other than a legit top-12 fantasy QB.

Fields fantasy points per game:

  • 2021: 11.7 (QB30)
  • 2022: 19.7 (QB5)
  • 2023: 17.7 (QB11)
  • 2024: 18.9 (QB8)

Was Fields great as a passer last season? No, but it wasn't like Russell Wilson was operating in a different stratosphere.

Turning 26 in March, Fields has flashed high-end ability during his short career as both a rusher and passer; it's worth wondering if a bit friendlier supporting cast could bring out the best of the former 11th overall pick.

Tennessee Titans

  • Key needs: Quarterback, offensive line, pass catcher
  • Effective cap space: $42.7 million (13th)
  • Free agency wish: Trade for Derek Carr

Now, Carr would need to waive his no-trade clause, but this would go hand in hand with the idea that the Titans don't view either Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward as an option at No. 1. The Will Levis experience certainly produced plenty of fun meme-worthy moments last year, but head coach Brian Callahan sure sounds like he's' ready to move on.

So with immediate contention not exactly the biggest priority and plenty of cap room, why not attempt to take on Carr's contract with a bounty of draft picks? Kudos to Carr for actually working as the QB8 in adjusted EPA when accounting for things like drops and offensive line performance last season; he would indeed be an upgrade over the low bar presented by Levis and Mason Rudolph.