NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Tiers: Wild Card Weekend Utilization Report
Welcome to the Utilization Report, where I highlight my top fantasy football takeaways as we gear up for the NFL playoffs. With all sorts of fantastic formats available, fantasy-centric contests are booming during the NFL postseason—creating a great opportunity for you to keep the season going.
The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for the NFL Playoffs
We will follow the data to tier and rank players based on the latest Utilization trends and playoff seeding. We want good players on teams who have a chance to play multiple games, and ultimately, we need players in the Super Bowl. Some large-field contests require differentiation to take down the top prizes, so we will also break down contrarian options.
Of course, knowing the rules for your playoff contest so you can consider different strategy options is key. Knowing the situations and players is essential, but winning a contest requires a thoughtful approach to roster construction.
Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.
NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Tiers: Utilization Trends and Playoff Seeding
Quick tips:
- Build playoff scenarios and focus on the teams you think will advance to the championship games with the majority of your roster.
- Make sure you have a chance to field as many starters as possible for Championship Weekend and the Super Bowl. That might mean drafting only one quarterback or tight end.
- Be careful not to roster too many players from teams on bye in Week 1. That doesn't mean you should avoid them, but you should be mindful of having a strong Week 1 lineup, especially in Guillotine formats with a cut line.
- Don't roster players from opposing teams in the Wild Card round; pick one side.
- Same as the bullet above, but think forward to the Divisional Round where it makes sense.
- In large contests, you will need to differentiate your roster. You can do this by building around a lower-seeded team or mixing in a lower-tier player from a highly-seeded team.
Quarterback Tiers and Picks For NFL Playoff Fantasy Football
TIER 1
- Josh Allen | Bills: The Bills are the No. 2 seed and carry the fourth-best Super Bowl odds (+650). Allen is a near-lock to play two games as 8.5-point favorites over the Broncos this weekend and has averaged 32.1 points over the last four games—the best in fantasy. Paul Charchian has Allen as his No. 1 player in for Gullotine formats.
- Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs: The Chiefs are the No. 1 seed and offer the second-highest odds to reach the Super Bowl (+350). You will have to get through a Week 1 bye, but Kansas City will have a home game against the lowest remaining seed in the AFC in the Divisional Round. Mahomes has heated up over the last month, averaging 19.9 points per game, with Xavier Worthy playing better and Hollywood Brown providing reinforcements.
- Jalen Hurts | Eagles: The Eagles garnered the No. 2 seed and are 5.5-point favorites over the No. 7 seeded Packers in the Wild Card Round. The Eagles should play at least two games and have the second-best odds of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Hurts has missed the last two games, but the fifth-year signal-caller averaged 23 fantasy points in his previous four healthy outings.
- Lamar Jackson | Ravens: The Ravens have the third-best Super Bowl odds (+600) as the No. 3 seed in the AFC. They are 9.5-point favorites against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round, so Jackson should play at least two games in the playoffs. Jackson could be without Zay Flowers (day to day) early in the playoffs, but his rushing upside keeps his fantasy status intact—Jackson has averaged 28 points over his last four games.
- Jared Goff | Lions: Many will look at this rank and think Goff isn't worthy, but the rules of the game change for playoff contests—we need as many weeks of points as possible, and the Lions boast the No. 1 Super Bowl odds (+280) after defeating the Vikings to earn the top seed in the NFC. Detroit held the Minnesota offense down, but they are still a banged-up unit (even if they get Aidan Hutchinson back) that might have to win via high-point totals. Goff has averaged 25.4 points over the last four weeks.
TIER 2
- Sam Darnold | Vikings: Minnesota's Super Bowl odds (+1600) fell to sixth with a loss to Detroit, knocking them down to the fifth seed. However, they are still a 14-win team and get a winnable matchup against the Rams in Los Angeles on Wild Card Weekend. They have to win an extra game to make the big dance, but that could work to your advantage if Week 18 was just a hiccup. Darnold has averaged 19.2 points per game this season but only 16.9 over the last four.
- Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers: The Bucs are the No. 3 seed in the NFC and carry the eighth-highest Super Bowl odds (+2500). Tampa Bay gets a home game against the Commanders as three-point favorites this weekend, which puts the game near coin-flip status. If they can pull out a victory, their most likely Divisional Round matchup will be the Eagles, but they could get a home game against the winner of the Rams-Vikings game if the Packers upset the Eagles. Mayfield has averaged 22.2 points per game this year and a whopping 27.4 in must-win mode over the last four contests.
- Justin Herbert | Chargers: The Chargers are barely behind the Bucs in Super Bowl odds (+2800) as the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They will travel to Houston to face a Texans team that hasn't played good football in a month. Herbert & Co. are 3.0-point favorites on the road and a dark horse to make significant noise if you seek a contrarian pick from the AFC. Herbert has averaged 21.6 points over the last month, with the playoffs hanging in the balance.
TIER 3
- Jayden Daniels | Commanders: The Commanders rank 10th in Super Bowl odds (+4500) and are three-point dogs on the road against the Buccanneers on Wild Card Weekend. That game is winnable, but as the six-seed, they would face the Lions in Round 2 unless the Packers upset the Eagles. In that scenario, they would travel to the winner of the Rams-Vikings game. Daniels has averaged 30.4 points over his last four healthy games, fighting for a playoff berth—if Washington gets hot, he will provide massive upside as a contrarian option.
- Jordan Love | Packers: The Packers are 5.5-point dogs traveling to Philadelphia for Wild Card Weekend. However, oddsmakers like their chances to make the Super Bowl (+2000) better than favored teams this weekend. If they pull off an upset, they will travel to the Lions—a team they know well—for the Divisional Round. Love hasn't been an impact fantasy QB this season (15.8) and has averaged only 13.9 points over his last four healthy outings.
- Matthew Stafford | Rams: The Rams, the No. 4 seed in the NFC, are tied with the Commanders for the 11th-best Super Bowl odds (+4500). They get a home game against the Vikings in the first round of the playoffs and are only 1.5-point underdogs. Stafford averaged 16 points in 10 games with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field together.
TIER 4
- C.J. Stroud | Texans: The Texans get a home game as the No. 4 seed as the NFC South champs in Round 1 of the playoffs. However, they claim the 12th-worst Super Bowl odds (+9000) and are three-point dogs to the Chargers thanks to shoddy play over the last month. Stroud has averaged only 13.3 points over his last four full contests. The Texans have a chance to win this weekend, but they should only be considered as a low-end contrarian play.
- Bo Nix | Broncos: Nix has had a formidable rookie campaign (19.3 points per game), but as the No. 7 seed, the Broncos must travel to Buffalo to face the second-seed Bills as 8.5-point dogs. Nix must beat the Chiefs at home in the Divisional Round if they complete that mission. That is an extremely tough road, but oddsmakers give them a better shot at the Super Bowl (+5500) than the Texans or Steelers.
- Russell Wilson | Steelers: The Steelers have lost four consecutive games, backing their way into the playoffs. They are tied with the Texans for the lowest Super Bowl odds (+9000) and are 9.5-point underdogs against the Ravens on Wild Card Weekend. This is a divisional game, so anything can happen, but the Steelers are strictly a contrarian play. Wilson has averaged 16.8 points this season.
Running Back Tiers and Picks For NFL Playoff Fantasy Football
TIER 1
- Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions: Since David Montgomery got injured, Gibbs has had a 9.3 utilization score, averaging 31.5 points per game. The Lions seem optimistic that Montgomery will return for the playoffs, but Gibbs was still good for 17.9 points per game with Monty this season. The Lions are the No. 1 seed, making Gibbs the top chalk option. I am not as concerned about Gibbs' bye week because we can build around it, but Charch prefers two other backs ahead of Gibbs.
- Saquon Barkley | Eagles: Saquon averaged 21.7 points per game over the last four contests with a healthy Jalen Hurts, and the Eagles are the No. 2 seed.
TIER 2
- James Cook | Bills: In a three-way committee, Cook doesn't boast the same Utilization Score (6.5) as Gibbs and Barkley. However, that hasn't stopped him from scoring fantasy points (16.7 per game), and the Bills are the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
- Derrick Henry | Ravens: Henry has finished the season strong with a 7.9 Utilization Score and 20.6 points per game over the last four outings. The Ravens are the No. 3 seed in the AFC and sport the third-strongest Super Bowl odds (+600).
TIER 3
- David Montgomery | Lions: Montgomery (MCL) risk, but if you are building a Lions-centric team, he offers upside on the top-seeded NFC team. Montgomery averaged 16.6 points before his injury in Week 13.
- Bucky Irving | Buccaneers: Irving has taken control of the backfield over the last three games with a 61% snap share. Over that span, he has an 8.2 Utilization Score, averaging 17.2 points per game. The Bucs are the No. 3 seed.
- Aaron Jones | Vikings: Jones hasn't received the monster workloads we were hoping for, but he is still the top option on a good Vikings squad. Jones has a 7.8 Utilization Score with 13.8 points per game over the last month. Minnesota's playoff outlook took a hit with the loss to the Lions, but they have a winnable matchup in Round 1 against the Rams as 1.5-point favorites.
- Josh Jacobs | Packers: Jacobs has been one of the hottest players in fantasy over the home stretch—averaging 20.4 points per game from Week 14 to Week 17. His playoff contest value is tricky to navigate with the Packers as 5.5-point underdogs to the second-seeded Eagles. Jacobs would be the centerpiece of their offense if Green Bay gets hot.
- Kyren Williams | Rams: Williams closed out the season strong with an 8.5 Utilization Score over his last four outings. Over that stretch, he handled 86% of the snaps, averaging 18.3 points per game. With Blake Corum out for the season (fractured forearm), the Rams will continue to feed Williams. The Rams are slight underdogs to the Vikings (-1.5) in Round 1 of the playoffs.
- J.K. Dobbins | Chargers: Dobbins upped his snap share to 68% in his second game back from injury, notching a 7.2 Utilization Score in Week 18. The Chargers are three-point favorites over a flailing Texans team in Round 1 and are an interesting dark horse candidate in the AFC. Dobbins has averaged 12.9 points since returning to the lineup two weeks ago.
- Kareem Hunt | Chiefs: The Chiefs have leaned into a three-way rotation since the return of Isiah Pacheco. Hunt has a 4.4 Utilization Score over the last four games, which isn't ideal for scoring fantasy points. However, the Chiefs are the top seed in the AFC and are the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl.
- Joe Mixon | Texans: Mixon was a fantasy steal in 2024, averaging 17.2 points per contest. However, he filled the box score with duds down the stretch, averaging only 11.6 points per game over his last four full contests. He has battled an ankle injury and a poor overall offensive environment. Mixon and the Texans have a shot to beat the Chargers in the Wild Card round, but it is hard to imagine them making a deep run. Mixon is strictly a contrarian option.
- Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs: See comments on Hunt above, but sub in a 4.2 Utilization Score. Hunt and Pacheco are a near coin flip, but you could argue that Pacheco has more upside if healthier after the bye.
TIER 4
The running backs below are a mixture of part-time players with contingency upside on good teams and players with slightly better roles on lower-seeded teams.
- Justice Hill | Ravens: Hill is the Ravens' primary receiving back and can provide spike-week upside in pass-heavy game plans for the Ravens.
- Kenneth Gainwell | Eagles: Gainwell is the change-of-pace option behind Barkley. He doesn't offer much stand-alone value but offers contingency upside and might squeak out a usable week in deep or highly-consolidated roster contests like best ball.
- Rachaad White | Buccaneers: White has fallen behind Irving over the three games, and his Utilization Score has tumbled to 3.8. Over that span, he has a 38% snap share with 5.8 fantasy points per game.
- Brian Robinson | Commanders: Robinson hasn't posted a meaningful fantasy score since Week 13, and Austin Ekeler returned to action in Week 18. Robinson handled only 38% of the snaps in the season's final game, while Ekeler saw 62%. This is a split backfield scenario, but Washington is only a three-point underdog against the Buccaneers—one of the closer games in the Wild Card round, making him an interesting contrarian play.
- Ray Davis | Bills: Cook heads a three-way committee in Buffalo, but Davis and Ty Johnson split roughly half the snaps. Davis offers touchdown-dependent spike-week upside and has already shown high-end upside in games without Cook (18.2 points in Week 6).
- Ty Johnson | Bills: Johnson leads the Bills in route participation rate (49%) over the last four games. He has flashed spike-week with 13.5 and 17.3 points in Weeks 14 and 15. If something happened to Cook, he and Davis would share the backfield.
TIER 5
This tier contains more committee backs that don't offer below-average to bad Super Bowl odds.
- Najee Harris | Steelers
- Austin Ekeler | Commanders
- Javonte Williams | Broncos
- Cam Akers | Vikings
- Jaylen Warren | Steelers
- Gus Edwards | Chargers
- Emanuel Wilson | Packers
- Jaleel McLaughlin | Broncos
TIER 6
This tier represents third-string backs prioritized by Super Bowl odds and playoff seeding. They should only be considered in large-field, deep-roster tournaments.
- Samaje Perine | Chiefs
- Craig Reynolds | Lions
- Will Shipley | Eagles
- Ty Chandler | Vikings
- Keaton Mitchell | Ravens
- Chris Brooks | Packers
- Sean Tucker | Buccaneers
- Hassan Haskins | Chargers
- Audric Estime | Broncos
- Ronnie Rivers | Rams
- Dameon Pierce | Texans
- Carson Steele | Chiefs
- Cordarrelle Patterson | Steelers
Wide Receiver Tiers and Picks For NFL Playoff Fantasy Football
TIER 1
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions: Brown has averaged 18.7 points per game this season with an 8.4 Utilization Score. Those numbers have surged over the last four games to 23 and 9.5. Residing on the No. 1 seed in the NFC makes him a no-brainer as the WR1 in a tier all of his own.
TIER 2
- A.J. Brown | Eagles: Brown has an 8.0 Utilization Score with 16.7 points per game this season. The Eagles are the No. 2 seed in the NFC, with the fifth-best Super Bowl odds (+700) overall. The Eagles offense hasn't demonstrated the same high-end ceiling as the Lions, which keeps Brown in a tier below the Sun God, but he is the WR2.
- Justin Jefferson | Vikings: Jefferson has an elite 9.5 Utilization Score with 20.6 points per game over the last four outings. The drop to the fifth seed hurts, but the Vikings are still a good team and are 1.5 favorites on the road against the Rams. This team could still play for the NFC Championship and a chance to play in the Super Bowl.
- Jameson Williams | Lions: Williams hasn't performed as well as some of the names lower on the list, but the Lions seeding (No. 1) and Super Bowl odds (+280) push him up the ranks. Williams has a 6.7 Utilization Score with an 18% target share over the last month, averaging 16.6 points per game.
- DeVonta Smith | Eagles: Smith closed out the season with a bang, posting an 8.7 Utilization Score over his final four games. Over that span, he averaged 20.7 fantasy points on a mouth-watering 33% target share. Those performances came without Dallas Goedert, who will challenge for targets, but the Eagles are the No. 2 seed with the fifth-best Super Bowl odds.
- Xavier Worthy | Chiefs: Worthy has been on fire over the last month, averaging 16.6 points with a 7.5 Utilization Score. Over that stretch, he has a 24% target share on an 85% route participation rate. Hollywood Brown will challenge for looks as his role grows, but it might not matter if Kansas City's passing attack finally explodes. It's hard to pass up the No. 1 WR on the top seed in the AFC.
- Khalil Shakir | Bills: The Bills' "everyone eats" mentality challenges all of their pass catchers. Still, Shakir has navigated those waters well, averaging 12.1 points per game with a 23% target share this season. It is worth noting that his route participation (75%) and Utilization Score (5.0) have dipped since the return of Keon Coleman in Week 15, but he remains the best bet to be the top option on the AFC's No. 2 seed.
- Mike Evans | Buccaneers: Evans has averaged 22.2 fantasy points with a 9.4 Utilization Score over his last six healthy games. Over that span, he has a 31% target share and 45% air yards share as the Bucs clear-cut No. 1 option. Tampa Bay is the No. 3 seed in the NFC and ranks eighth in Super Bowl odds (+2500).
- Ladd McConkey | Chargers: McConkey has registered an 8.0 Utilization Score with 18.9 points per game over the last four outings. He has a 23% target share over that span. The Chargers are the No. 5 seed with a good chance to knock off the Texans as three-point favorites. The Bolts offer similar Super Bowl odds to the Bucs (+2800).
- Puka Nacua | Rams: Nacua has taken over the WR1 mantle from Cooper Kupp with a 44% target share, 9.0 Utilization Score, and 24 fantasy points per game over the last month. The Rams get a home game and a chance to knock off the Vikings as 1.5-point underdogs on Wild Card Weekend as the No. 4 seed in the NFC. He comes in below McConkey and Evans due to lower Super Bowl odds (+4500).
TIER 3
- Zay Flowers | Ravens: Flowers would rank in Tier 2 if healthy (knee), but his status for Wild Card Weekend is in doubt. The Ravens offer the third-most-favorable odds to make the Super Bowl (+600) and are 9.5-point favorites over the Steelers in Round 1. That means Flowers could miss the first week and still provide value, especially if the injury news suppresses his rostership dramatically. Monitor his injury status this week.
- Hollywood Brown | Chiefs: Brown rested with the other key starters in Week 18. He reached a 49% route participation rate in Week 17 in his second start and has a juicy 44% target per route run (TPRR) in two games. If Brown's role expands to full-time status he could make huge waves in the fantasy playoffs.
- Rashod Bateman | Ravens: Bateman only managed a 15% target share this year, but the Ravens are an explosive offense that could play multiple rounds. Despite his low target share, the quality of the offense and his big-play ability have unlocked 13.1 points per game over the last four contests. With Flowers' status up in the air due to a knee issue, the Ravens could need their former Round 1 NFL Draft Pick more than ever.
- Jordan Addison | Vikings: Addison enjoyed a breakout season, averaging 14.2 points per game with a 6.8 Utilization Score. In scenarios where you have the Vikings advancing to the championship game he should move up the ranks drastically. His talent is on par with many of the Tier 2 options.
- Terry McLaurin | Commanders: McLaurin had a strong Year 1 with Jayden Daniels, averaging 15.9 points per game. Over the last four contests, he has an 8.0 Utilization Score, averaging 18 points on a 23% target share. The Commanders' Super Bowl odds (+4500) push him down. He moves up the ranks to Tier 2 in scenarios where you are projecting the Commanders to beat the Bucs.
- Nico Collins | Texans: Collins is a beast as Houston's clear-cut No. 1 option. However, the Texans' Super Bowl odds (+9000) say they are a long shot to make noise. Collins is a contrarian option in Houston builds.
- Keon Coleman | Bills: The Bills love spreading things around, making their pass catchers challenging to nail down. However, the rookie posted a 97% route participation rate over the last two games, leaving the door open for him to lead the team in playing time in the postseason.
- Jalen McMillan | Buccaneers: McMillan finished the season with a bang, averaging 19.3 points with a 7.6 Utilization Score over the last four games. The Bucs are the No. 3 seed, giving them a solid chance to play at least two games.
- DeAndre Hopkins | Chiefs: Hopkins' Utilization Score has fallen to 4.8 over the last four games. The Kansas City passing attack has suddenly become more crowded, with Worthy emerging as a late-season breakout and Brown returning to the lineup. Still, we know these trends can change quickly, and Hopkins remains one of Mahomes' top four pass catchers.
- Cooper Kupp | Rams: Kupp's Utilization Score has dropped to 4.5 over the last month, averaging only 7.4 points per game. He is a contrarian option if you believe his downturn in performance is just a blip, and the Rams can make noise in the playoffs.
- Amari Cooper | Bills: Cooper has been a massive disappointment in Buffalo, where he plays part-time. His TPRR remains solid (22%), but a 51% route participation rate has held him in check. He has a lowly 3.9 Utilization Score and only 7.7 points per game with the Bills. Buffalo's strong playoff outlook pushes the veteran up the ranks, but he is a better fit for best ball formats where you don't have to know which weeks he will grace you with fantasy points.
- Quentin Johnston | Chargers: Johnston stepped up his game over the final month of the season, posting a 7.6 Utilization Score with 15.5 fantasy points per game. Over that span, he notched 25%, 28%, 14%, and 40% target shares.
- Courtland Sutton | Broncos: Sutton had a career year, averaging 14.3 points per game with Bo Nix. The rookie quarterback targeted Sutton (25%) more than any other Bronco and helped enable a 7.8 Utilization Score. Sutton would rank much higher in a vacuum, but the Broncos Super Bowl odds (+5500) push him down the ranks. As the seventh seed, Denver would have to beat the Bills and Chiefs in back-to-back games just to make the Championship game.
- George Pickens | Steelers: Pickens also had a career year and blossomed as a target earner (26%). He notched a 7.3 Utilization Score for the season. However, he faces challenges similar to Sutton's, with the Steelers locking in the No. 6 seed. The path to the championship game would be arduous, needing back-to-back wins over the Ravens and then the Bills or Chiefs.
TIER 4
- Jayden Reed | Packers: Reed flashed high-end WR1 upside early in the season, but the Packers love to spread things around. The second-year WR has a 19% target share with a 5.1 Utilization Score and 11.7 points per game. The Packers' Super Bowl odds (+2000) are better than some of the options in the tier above, but they are 5.5-point dogs against the Eagles this weekend. Reed moves up a tier if you like the Packers to win on Wild Card weekend.
- Romeo Doubs | Packers: See Jayden Reed.
- Olamide Zaccheaus | Commanders: Since taking over the starting role in Week 16, Zaccheas has a 7.6 Utilization Score with 18.1 points per game. He is in play on Washington-centric builds.
- Marvin Mims | Broncos: Despite a 43% route participation rate, Mims has erupted for 16.9 points per game, thanks to a 32% TPRR over the last four games. He is the Broncos No. 1 playmaker. The Broncos are long shots to make noise in the playoffs, but if you are down for that sort of contrarianism, Mims is in the fold.
- Tim Patrick | Lions: Patrick has flashed occasional spike-week upside despite a 13% target share thanks to a high-scoring offense. He makes this tier thanks to strong Super Bowl odds.
- Mack Hollins | Bills: See Tim Patrick.
- Nelson Agholor | Ravens: See Tim Patrick and Mack Hollins.
TIER 5
This tier consists of tertiary weapons on teams without high-end Super Bowl odds.
- Jalen Nailor | Vikings
- Dontayvion Wicks | Packers
- Sterling Shepard | Buccaneers
- Joshua Palmer | Chargers
- Demarcus Robinson | Rams
TIER 6
This tier includes backup receivers on teams with strong Super Bowl odds (e.g., Kalif Raymond and JuJu Smith-Schuster) and third-string options on teams with lower Super Bowl odds (e.g., John Metchie).
- Kalif Raymond | Lions
- JuJu Smith-Schuster | Chiefs
- Curtis Samuel | Bills
- Jamison Crowder | Commanders
- Justin Watson | Chiefs
- Mecole Hardman | Chiefs
- Jahan Dotson | Eagles
- Tylan Wallace | Ravens
- Devaughn Vele | Broncos
- John Metchie | Texans
- Diontae Johnson | Texans
- Calvin Austin | Steelers
- Tutu Atwell | Rams
Tight End Tiers and Picks For NFL Playoff Fantasy Football
TIER 1
- Travis Kelce | Chiefs: Kelce took a step back this season, averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game. However, the Chiefs are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and we saw the veteran erupt for 21.5 points per game in the playoffs last year.
- Sam LaPorta | Lions: LaPorta was an early-round bust in the fantasy regular season, which might be off-putting to many managers. However, he has come to life over the last four games with a 9.3 Utilization Score, averaging 16 points per game. The Lions are the top seed in the NFC and have the best Super Bowl odds (+280).
TIER 2
- Mark Andrews | Ravens: Andrews has an 8.1 Utilization Score over the last four games, averaging 13.6 fantasy points. Over that span, he leads the team with a 74% route participation rate, and Flowers could miss time in the playoffs.
- Dallas Goedert | Eagles: The Eagles passing attack is crowded, but they are the No. 2 seed. Goedert has a 20% target share with a 7.0 Utilization Score this year, enabling 10.4 points per game.
- Dalton Kincaid | Bills: The second-year breakout didn't come to fruition, with Kincaid averaging 7.8 points with a 6.1 Utilization Score. On the bright side, his 26% TPRR is high-end TE1 stuff. Unfortunately, making much noise on a 62% route participation rate is hard. Still, Kincaid resides in a high-scoring offense that is the No. 2 seed.
- T.J. Hockenson | Vikings: Hockenson has played a full-time role over the last four weeks with an 80% route participation rate and 18% target share. The fantasy points haven't followed (7.4 per game), but he is due for a big game. Hockenson would rank higher with more substantial Super Bowl odds (+1600).
TIER 3
- Isaiah Likely | Ravens: Likely is the No. 2 option behind Mark Andrews, but his playing time is on par with Kincaid in the tier above. Over the last four games, he has a 66% route participation rate and a 12% target share. Over that span, he has averaged 7.6 points per game with a 5.0 Utilization Score.
- Noah Gray | Chiefs: Gray didn't play much in Week 18, resting with key starters. Worthy and Brown have eaten into the pie recently, but Gray could play 40 to 50% of the passing plays on the AFC's No. 1 seed.
- Cade Otton | Buccaneers: Otton hasn't played over the last three games due to a knee injury. However, he belongs in this tier if he is good to go. The third-year tight end posted career-highs in target share (19%), Utilization Score (7.4), and fantasy points (10.1) this season. While his boom games came without Mike Evans, Otton has proven he can deliver big fantasy performances.
- Zach Ertz | Commanders: Ertz finished the season with a 7.0 Utilization Score, averaging 10.2 fantasy points. He is a top-three option in the Washington attack, making him a name to target when building Commanders teams.
TIER 4
- Will Dissly | Chargers: Dissly returned to No. 1 tight end duties in Week 18 with a 71% route participation and 15.2 fantasy points. The Chargers are the No. 5 seed and are favored over the Texans by three points on Wild Card Weekend.
- Tucker Kraft | Packers: Kraft had a decent Year 2 with 9.6 points per game, but his Utilization Score (5.9) finished well behind Otton and Ertz. Combine that with the Packers standing as the No. 7 seed, and Kraft lands in Tier 4.
- Dalton Schultz | Texans: Schultz might be the No. 2 option for Stroud, with Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs done for the year. However, that has only led to a 15% target share over the last two games. The Texans are the No. 4 seed but are tied for the worst Super Bowl odds (+9000).
- Dawson Knox | Bills: Knox struggled with a 3.3 Utilization Score and 3.7 points per game in 2024. However, he is on the field for almost half of the passing plays for the No. 2 seed in the AFC, which makes him a backend of the roster option on Bills builds in best ball.
TIER 5
This tier consists of backup and committee tight end options. It should be avoided in most formats except the occasional last-round pick in large-field best ball tournaments.
- Tyler Higbee | Rams
- Josh Oliver | Vikings
- Luke Musgrave | Packers
- Brock Wright | Lions
- Payne Durham | Buccaneers
- Stone Smartt | Chargers
- Colby Parkinson | Rams
- Grant Calcaterra | Eagles
- Hayden Hurst | Chargers
- Lucas Krull | Broncos