Ian Hartitz uncovers one weakness for all 14 NFL teams that are likely to make the playoffs.

We are one slate of football away from the playoffs. Positivity should be in the air for all 14 qualifiers; each team achieved plenty of success this season and has a chance to cement their legacy with a Super Bowl run.

Of course, things could also go terribly wrong for each team. Just ask Cowboys fans: A postseason blowout or end-of-game memeable failure can take a season from 100 to 0 real quick.

Accordingly, let's embrace the potential humiliating misery that lurks in the shadows of every playoff game by breaking down one of every remaining team's biggest weaknesses!

Selected teams are by most-likely scenarios entering Week 18. Everyone except the Broncos (83% odds of making it) and Buccaneers (89%) are confirmed. I agree it would be cool if the Bengals happen to make it. If they do, just know I apologize, and we would have covered their largely atrocious defense as a whole here. Cool? Cool.

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Biggest weakness: Explosive plays in the run game

This season the Chiefs have a league-low four RB rushes of 15-plus yards. Four! Saquon Barkley has five in the last two weeks!

Kareem Hunt has gotten a lot of flack for this problem, and deservedly so: Hunt has an NFL-high 200 carries without a rush longer than 20 yards and ranks 48th in explosive-run rate (1.5%) among 51 qualified RBs.

Still, Isiah Pacheco hasn't exactly helped matters. He has just one run of 15-plus yards all year and has been even worse than Hunt when it comes to explosive-run rate (49th, 1.2%).

The offensive line ranks ninth in yards before contact per carry and seventh in PFF run blocking grade. Kudos to both RBs for helping this rushing attack rank fourth in success rate (51.3%), but a big play here and there on the ground certainly wouldn't hurt matters.

2. Buffalo Bills

  • Biggest weakness: Receiver separation

Sometimes these stats can be noisy BUT there are certain parties who do a good job of quantifying a receiver's ability to get open:

  • The Bills rank fourth in net pass yards per attempt, yet are a bottom-10 offense in average separation score per dropback (Fantasy Points).
  • Mack Hollins has the WR room's highest open score at ESPN (63, 32nd), while each of Khalil Shakir (51, 72nd), Keon Coleman (46, 83rd), and Amari Cooper (43, 88th) don't look so hot either.
  • Overall, Buffalo has ESPN's sixth-worst average open score among all qualified WRs and TEs.

Give Josh Allen a lot of credit for, you know, being one of the best professional athletes alive, and to Bills OC Joe Brady for scheming up some serious goodness all year. In fact, Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) ranks Brady as the league's second-most efficient playcaller in the NFL behind only Ravens OC Todd Monken.

3. Baltimore Ravens

  • Biggest weakness: The pass defense

On the one hand, the Ravens have allowed the ninth-highest fantasy point boost to opposing WRs and seventh-highest passing yard boost to QBs. Guys like Joe Burrow (428 yards, 392), Dak Prescott (379), Baker Mayfield (370), and Jameis Winston (334) all largely torched this group during just the first 10 weeks of the season.

On the other hand, something changed after Burrow's second prolific performance against this group: Stud defensive back Kyle Hamilton started spending far more of his time at safety instead of in the slot or at linebacker. The splits are pretty stark and also coincide with the team's decision to bench Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson.

The ensuing results have been pretty, pretty, pretty good:

Ravens defense EPA allowed per dropback:

  • Weeks 1-10: +0.19 (30th)
  • Weeks 11-17: -0.13 (1st)

Now, the schedule Gods have done the Ravens some favors, but then again guys like Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud have posted season-worst marks in passer rating against this group over the last six weeks.

We'll find out how real this improvement is on Saturday ahead of a tough test against Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Co. Just kidding! DTR is making a compelling case as the least-efficient passer of the 21st century. Anyway, yeah, for the Ravens' sake, hopefully this second-half improvement sticks.

4. Houston Texans

  • Biggest weakness: Picking up consistent yardage

We've seen C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins hook up for plenty of big plays this season, but the Texans' pass and run game alike have struggled to consistently create positive plays. Some might say Houston … has a problem! (Sorry).

Anyway, TruMedia determines success rate by taking the percentage of plays that the offense gains 50% of the yardage needed on 1st and 2nd down as well as how often they pick up a 1st down on 3rd and 4th down. The Texans rank 27th in passing success rate, and dead-ass last in rushing.

 

Last year's offense still struggled mightily in rushing success rate (29th), but they were at least 14th in passing. WR injuries haven't helped in 2024, and PFF ranks the offensive line 28th, although THIS level of putridness requires at least some blame being thrown to the men throwing the ball and calling the plays.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Biggest weakness: Offensive line

The bottom right quadrant in the chart below denotes teams that have struggled to pick up consistent rush yards before contact while simultaneously allowing a high pressure rate.

The Steelers are 29th in pressure rate allowed and 26th in yards before contact per carry—only the Seahawks are worse if you take everyone's average rank in these two statistics.

Now, the Steelers do have the league's ninth longest average time to throw; Russell Wilson and Justin Fields invite plenty of pressure due to their respective tendency to hold the ball for quite a while. Injuries also haven't helped matters with OT Troy Fautanu (knee, IR), G James Daniels (Achilles, IR), and Nate Herbig (shoulder, IR) all sidelined.

Plenty of work will need to be done ahead of next season regardless of how the rest of this year pans out: Pittsburgh is currently one of only four teams with under $25 million devoted to the offensive line in 2025 (per Over The Cap).

6. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Biggest weakness: The running game

J.K. Dobbins' comeback from a myriad of brutal lower-body injuries has been nothing short of remarkable, and Gus Edwards has occasionally made a good play when healthy enough to suit up this season.

That said: Chargers RBs rank 26th in tackles avoided per carry and 25th in yards after contact per carry this season. Most of the team's success on the ground should probably be attributed to the offensive line, which ranks 17th in yards before contact per carry and 16th in PFF's team run blocking grade.

Dobbins has certainly been better than the artist known as Gus Bus, but yeah: Not great!

 

Not the world's most-glaring weakness—I'm on the record thinking the Chargers could make a run in January—but it's hard to imagine Los Angeles NOT making a serious move to upgrade the position in free agency or the draft next year.

7. Denver Broncos

  • Biggest weakness: Rushing offense

The counting numbers aren't great in terms of total rushing yards (1,750, 17th) and TDs (11, 23rd), and the advanced efficiency numbers also leave quite a bit to be desired.

  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.56 (28th)
  • Tackles avoided per carry: 16.7% (19th)
  • Total rush EPA: -25.1 (19th)
  • Non-QB rush EPA: -32.8 (21st)

Similar to the Chargers: Not the most glaring weakness in the world, but we are looking at a well-rounded team here! The success of the league's second-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play speaks for itself, while Bo Nix's impressive rookie season has been complemented by Courtland Sutton and Sean Payton's still-lethal schematic goodness.

The likes of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin have flashed at a point or two this season; just realize it'd be a lot cooler if this hard-nosed, physical football team REALLY had a true stud bellcow to lean on.

NFC

1. Detroit Lions

  • Biggest weakness: The pass defense

DC Aaron Glenn's unit was a strength to start the year, but a laundry list of injuries to all three levels of the group has resulted in the league's second-worst pass defense behind only the Bears over the past two months of action.

Side note: Fly Eagles fly!

Anyway, yeah: The Lions have allowed an absurd 1,089 passing yards over the last three weeks—181 more than the next-worst pass defense. Hopefully reinforcements down the stretch allow the Lions to regain the sort of form that helped them rank fifth in EPA allowed per dropback during the first nine weeks of the season.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Biggest weakness: Taking sacks

Notice I did not say pass blocking, as Jalen Hurts is the bigger problem here. Overall, Hurts has taken 38 sacks this season–10th most in the NFL—due in large part to his league-high 3.22 second average time to throw. PFF has charged 18.8% of Hurts' pressured dropbacks to him (9th highest), and his average time to sack rate (3.94 seconds) is the fourth longest mark in the league.

The below chart reflects the reality that while the Eagles have surrendered the league's highest pressure rate, they have actually been a top-5 team in terms of average time to pressure.

 

 

Hurts' tendency to hold the ball also gives his receivers more time to get open, and his scrambling success continues to be a big part of the offense. This "weakness" hasn't stopped the Eagles from looking like the class of the NFC for the better part of the last two months; it'd just be a lot cooler if the team's franchise QB avoids these negative plays a bit more often down the stretch.

3. Los Angeles Rams

  • Biggest weakness: Tackling

We also could have gone with explosive run plays like the Chiefs, but the tackling here is probably the bigger issue: Only the Dolphins have been charged with more total missed tackles than the Rams this season.

PFF grades this group just 24th in tackling grade, and this has certainly played a role in the defense allowing the seventh most yards after the catch per reception and fifth-worst stuff rate  on the year.

 

The Rams were always expected to fall off a bit on defense in the post Aaron Donald era, and to their credit they've allowed a league-low 24 total points over the past three weeks. Still, the tests haven't been overly steep—it still remains to be seen if this group can truly stand up against a good rush offense, or if someone like the Eagles is ready to drop *314* rush yards on them again.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Biggest weakness: Defending the deep ball

There really aren't any holes to poke in the Bucs' offense, while the defense has also been mostly fine in EPA per dropback (22nd) and especially per rush (6th). Things have generally been pretty good all around … except when opposing offenses have pushed the ball downfield.

Bucs defense on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield:

  • 12th highest completion rate allowed (36.8%)
  • 6th highest EPA per dropback allowed (-0.53)
  • 8th highest YAC per reception (6.9)
  • 8th highest passer rating allowed (99.5)

The Bucs are one of just seven teams in the entire NFL with a positive triple-digit point differential; even this issue hasn't been enough to prevent them from dominating large portions of the season. Here's to hoping all-world S Antoine Winfield (knee) manages to return to action soon!

5. Minnesota Vikings

  • Biggest weakness: Defending opposing WRs

Minnesota has allowed the second-most receiving yards (2,978) and fifth-most receiving TDs (18) to opposing WRs this season. Not great, Bob.

While those porous counting numbers still haven't prevented the defense from ranking second in EPA allowed per dropback as a whole, even the more advanced efficiency measures still paint a disappointing picture when looking specifically at the performance against WRs.

 

The Vikings haven't lost a game since October, but their pair of losses to the Lions and Rams unsurprisingly included big performances by guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-112-1), Puka Nacua (7-106-0), Cooper Kupp (5-51-1), Kalif Raymond (3-39-1), and Demarcus Robinson (2-35-2).

Sam Darnold and Co. have proven capable of scoring with anyone, but more upcoming matchups with the Lions and maybe the Rams/Eagles could really stress starting outside corners Byron Murphy (PFF's 16th highest-graded CB in coverage) and Stephon Gilmore (85th) as well as slot defender Joshua Metellus (69th highest-graded safety).

6. Washington Commanders

  • Biggest weakness: Run defense

This one is pretty clear:

  • League-high 2.02 yards before contact allowed per carry
  • 8th-highest explosive run play rate (10%)
  • 3rd-most yards per rush attempt (4.8)
  • 7th-worst successful play rate allowed (57.3%)

Not great! Accordingly, guys like Saquon Barkley (29 rushes-150 yards-2 TD, 26-146-2), Derrick Henry (24-132-2), D'Andre Swift (18-129-1), James Conner (18-104-1), Devin Singletary (16-95-1), and Bijan Robinson (17-90-2) have found all sorts of success on the ground against this lot.

You know what should start to help? Stud DT Jonathan Allen continuing to work back into action; he played last Sunday night for the first time since Week 6 and should give this front-seven at least a fighting chance at slowing down future stud RBs.

7. Green Bay Packers

  • Biggest weakness: Catching the football

It's kind of a big problem! Unfortunately, something in the water at Lambeau Field seems to be inflicting these WRs with a case of the butterfingers.

Highest WR drop rates in the NFL (PFF):

Overall, no group of WRs has more total drops than the Packers (24) this season. Hell, even the defense has dropped 9 INTs—tied for the most in the NFL.

There is still plenty of good inside this Jordan Love-led passing attack, but maybe the Packers should consider looking a little bit more into improving their WR room this offseason. After all, *nobody* has fewer 2025 dollars devoted to their WR room at the moment than the Packers.