The preseason might not "matter", but it definitely "matters". You know what I mean?
While utilization takeaways definitely constitute the most fantasy-relevant data from any and all preseason action, play-calling and personnel trends can also be interesting when juxtaposed against constant drumbeats of intel out of training camp. Team X might tell the media they want to throw downfield more often or utilize extra pre-snap motion, but are they actually doing so when the lights are on?
This leads us to today's goal: Breaking down seven early trends from the preseason that resonate with personnel or schematic changes from this offseason. Special thanks to the fine folks at PFF and TruMedia for the following advanced data.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Death, taxes, Bears OC Shane Waldron hating 11 personnel
- Stat: The Bears rank last in 11 personnel rate (40.2%) this preseason.
11 personnel signifies formations that feature only one TE and RB on the field. While Waldron initially worked as the Rams' passing game coordinator from 2018 to 2020 under noted three-WR-lover Sean McVay, his last three seasons with the Seahawks featured more two-TE formations than certain fantasy managers would have liked:
Seahawks 11 personnel usage:
- 2021: 64.5%, 12th
- 2022: 52.9%, 27th
- 2023: 63.4%, 19th
The latter year was particularly annoying because the Seahawks had just spent a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba … and now it looks like the same business is going down in Chicago despite the presence of a truly great trio of WRs in DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen.
Right now it looks like Odunze is the odd man out: Moore and Allen posted 100% route participation rates during the second week of the preseason, while the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 9 overall pick slipped to 68%.
Things can always change – particularly if the team's allegedly overweight 32-year-old veteran continues to underwhelm – but for now prospective Odunze fantasy managers should brace themselves to see a bit more Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett than anyone would prefer.
Kliff Kingsbury gonna Kliff Kingsbury
- Stat: Couldn't pick just one.
The Kliff Kingsbury experience has been on full display through eight quarters of preseason action:
- No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin has lined up as the offense's left outside WR on 28 of his 29 snaps. This sort of stationary alignment was commonplace for DeAndre Hopkins when he played for Kingsbury in Arizona.
- Always known for featuring a quick pace (league-high 34.6% no-huddle rate with the Cardinals), Washington has a ridiculous no-huddle rate of 56.7% at the moment – the Steelers are in second place at 13%.
- Washington currently ranks dead last in shift/motion rate (10.6%) and 31st in play-action rate (15.6%) – two metrics that (again) Kingsbury ranked lowly in (32nd and 16th) during his time leading the Cardinals.
- Only the Eagles (22.8%) and Panthers (22.2%) have run a higher percentage of snaps featuring a run-pass-option (RPO) than the Commanders (22%). Kliff's Arizona offenses ranked third (17.1%) in RPO rate.
Not all of these things are necessarily bad: Hopkins went for 115-1,407-6 during his lone full season with the Cardinals, and the fast pace played a role in guys like Kyler Murray and James Conner putting up plenty of fantasy goodness over the years.
Still, we accordingly haven't seen Jayden Daniels take many "real" dropbacks just yet, and at a minimum it's clear Kingsbury didn't exactly rewrite his playbook during his sabbatical in Thailand.
Maybe this is a NEW Chargers offensive line?
- Stat: The Chargers are averaging an NFL-best 2.3 rush yards before contact per carry this preseason.
Quite the improvement for a group that finished 28th (0.9) in 2023 and 31st (0.9) in 2022.
Of course, dominance at the line of scrimmage isn't anything new for renowned run-game expert Greg Roman, who has helped scheme up great rushing attacks for virtually his entire career:
- 2011 49ers: 1.7 rush yards before contact per carry (21st)
- 2012 49ers: 2.7 (1st)
- 2013 49ers: 2.2 (7th)
- 2014 49ers: 2 (15th)
- 2015 Bills: 2.5 (1st)
- 2016 Bills: 2.5 (1st)
- 2019 Ravens: 2.3 (1st)
- 2020 Ravens: 2.4 (1st)
- 2021 Ravens: 1.8 (2nd)
- 2022 Ravens: 2.1 (2nd)
Yes, plenty of those offenses benefited from their dual-threat QBs providing a gravity effect on defensive linemen in the read option game. Also yes, Roman and Jim Harbaugh have been no strangers to running the damn ball over the years, and the early returns look good!
Now if only we could figure out exactly who will get the most work between Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins and Kimani Vidal, who made the most out of his opportunities against the Rams last Saturday. The money certainly leans toward Gus Bus, and he's accordingly the highest-ranked Chargers RB by our Fantasy Life team of expert rankers at the moment.
The Eagles still aren't exactly flying before the snap
- Stat: The Eagles rank 29th in pre-snap shift/motion rate at just 21.4%.
Last year's Eagles offense was the league's most stationary pre-snap group (31.4%). A quick look at the NFL's reigning top-five units demonstrates the reality that most of the league's top offenses make a habit of attempting to confuse opposing defenses before the snap:
- Dolphins (87.4% shift/motion rate in 2023)
- 49ers (79.1%)
- Rams (73.7%)
- Lions (70.1%)
- Chargers (68.1%)
Of course, new Eagles OC Kellen Moore was in charge of the latter unit, leading to plenty of offseason chatter about Philly utilizing this feature a bit more in 2024. So far not so good, although the offense's shift/motion rate did increase from 14.1% to 29.8% during the first two weeks of the preseason.
Look, the Eagles also ranked last in shift/motion rate in 2022 (36.2%) … and they ranked third in scoring on their way to a 38-35 Super Bowl loss. It's not like their more stationary system hasn't returned great results over the years. It's also possible that Moore is simply waiting for the regular season to fully show his hand – the Lions (49.6%, 14th) are an example of a team that hasn't utilized much pre-snap shift/motion this preseason after heavily leaning on it last year, and I'm certainly not expecting them to suddenly abandon this feature of their offense in 2024.
Still, this Eagles offense scored 21 or fewer points in six of their last nine games in 2023 seemingly in large part to how predictable they became down the stretch. Failure to keep defenses a bit more on their toes in 2024 could (again) make life more difficult than it probably needs to be for all parties involved.
The Jaguars and Browns offensive lines have been ROUGH, man
- Stat: The Jaguars and Browns rank 31st and 32nd in both rush yards before contact per carry and pressure rate allowed this preseason.
There have been plenty of examples in recent years of bad preseason offensive lines improving once the games matter, but I was honestly surprised by how many porous groups have stayed rather bad.
The issues here come down to the reality that neither o-line really exactly deserves the benefit of the doubt at the moment. PFF ranked both the Browns (22nd) and Jaguars (27th) offensive lines lowly in their final 2023 ranks, and while the former (4th) is being thought of far higher than the latter (23rd) in their 2024 ranks thanks to expected better injury luck, that certainly hasn't been the case so far, and it's possible the loss of longtime offensive line coach Bill Callahan is a bigger deal than expected.
It'd make sense if performance improves once the starters are healthier and playing more (funny how that works). That said: Failure for these units to elevate their performance in the regular season won't help either team's underperforming franchise QBs stay upright.
It'd also be tough to be overly optimistic about the league's reigning 26th (Browns) and 30th (Jags) ranked rushing attacks in yards per carry taking meaningful steps forward.
Cincy embracing some cool new shit on offense? Yay!
- Stat: The Bengals rank highly in both play-action rate (36.4%, 2nd) and pre-snap shift/motion rate (68.2%, 4th) in the preseason.
This comes as a bit of a surprise considering the team's lowly ranking in play-action rate (20.2%, 29th) and shift/motion rate (48%, 25th) during the first four seasons of the Joe Burrow era. Now, the team has entertained the thought of expanding the offense as recently as last offseason, but that didn't lead to any discernible increases in preseason usage.
While Burrow tends to prefer a static pre-snap setup (a la Peyton Manning), new offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher could perhaps look to lean into this feature a bit more now that he's taken over for new Titans head coach Brian Callahan. Throw in a (hopefully) healthier Burrow and offensive line, and you have a talented offense that could be poised to make life even tougher than usual on opposing defenses in 2024.
The Giants and Chiefs are serious about throwing deep more often
- Stat: Daniel Jones' average target depth has increased from 6.9 to 10.4, while the Chiefs' deep ball rate (20-plus yards) has gone from 10.5% (19th) to 16.4% (4th).
Jones racked up a whopping four passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield in just one half of football last Saturday – a mark that he's matched in just two of 22 regular season starts over the past two years.
This is consistent with what we've heard out of Giants camp and matches what the offense should be trying to do with a trio of good-to-great field-stretching talents in Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt.
A similar sentiment in Kansas City has been true and is reflected by adding speedy WRs Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown this offseason: Mahomes' average target depth has increased from a league-low 6.8 yards to 7.6 in limited preseason action. This is still fairly low relative to the gunslinger we saw earlier in his career; just realize Andy Reid's offseason chatter about having more pass-catchers capable of winning downfield doesn't seem to have fallen on mute ears.
