In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
It was a classic trap game for the Steelers. Many times the Steelers have been in this spot coming off a great win against a top-tier opponent like they did last week against Baltimore and then face an inferior opponent only to lose. It happened again on Thursday night. The Browns blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter, but rallied to take the lead on Nick Chubb’s second touchdown of the game in a 24-19 win in a snow-filled second half. The Steelers dropped to 8-3 and are 4-1 with Russell Wilson as a starter. Myles Garrett led the defense with 3 sacks as the Browns improved to 3-8. Here is the Friday FAQ.
Nick Chubb scored 2 touchdowns. Is he all the way back from his injuries?
Unfortunately, he isn’t. Chubb isn’t close to the player we saw two years ago and it makes sense considering he suffered a torn ACL, MCL and meniscus in Week 2 last season. The explosiveness isn’t there and he’s reliant on touchdowns to come through in fantasy, considering he’s not heavily involved in the passing game. He had 59 yards on 20 carries and caught a 1-yard pass. He is averaging 3.04 yards per carry.
Has Jaylen Warren become a flex play?
While Najee Harris is getting most of the touches, Warren is getting enough work to be considered as a play in fantasy lineups, especially with six more teams on bye in Week 14. For the fifth straight game, Warren had double-digit touches. Warren had 11 carries for 45 yards with a touchdown and caught 3 passes for 19 yards. Harris had 16 carries for 41 yards and 2 catches for 13 yards.
What happened to the Browns’ wide receivers?
Jerry Jeudy had another good game. He has 36 targets over the last four games and reached double-digit points in PPR formats in each one. Jeudy had 6 catches for 85 yards. Cedric Tillman was quiet for the second straight game, registering 2 catches for 28 yards on 4 targets and lost a fumble. He left the game early in the fourth quarter and is in the concussion protocol. Elijah Moore had 3 catches for 21 yards and tight end David Njoku had 1 catch for 9 yards and caught a two-point conversion. He dropped an easy touchdown. The Browns have a difficult schedule the next three weeks, facing the Broncos, Steelers, and Chiefs, so temper expectations.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Start/Sit Decisions for Week 12: Bench a breakout RB?
- Watercooler: Buy/Sell/Hold
Stat of the Day 11/22: Roschon Johnson is available in 73% of fantasy leagues
It doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong week on the waiver wire. Elijah Moore was the top pickup in our Waiver Wire tool, but Johnson is my favorite pickup of the week. D’Andre Swift has been the top running back for the Bears all season, and that doesn’t figure to change anytime soon. However, Johnson continues to eat into his workload. He played on a season-high 44% of the snaps last week vs. the Packers, and he racked up 34% of their carries.
The most important development was his work in short yardage. He had 88% of the team’s short-yardage carries, and with his size, he’s a more natural fit in that role than the diminutive Swift.
If that continues, Johnson is someone who could have weekly touchdown-scoring upside. He found the paint last week, and he now has five touchdowns in his past seven outings.
That’s enough to put Johnson in the flex conversation in most weeks, and he would see a significant spike in value if Swift were to suffer an injury. Ultimately, he’s a priority add for all rosters with the fantasy playoffs looming.
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
❤️ You will have no regrets after reading Week 12 Love/Hate.
👀 Ian, Dwain, and Freedman mix it up on some rankings risers, fallers, and streamers for Week 12.
⚖️ Just who is the WR1 in San Francisco?
🦁 Check out cooterdoodle’s Buy, Sell, Hold then push your chips in on the Lions.
🤔 Start Courtland Sutton or Ladd McConkey? Check out our updated rankings.
💪 The Flex with Jake and Geoff answers questions like where to rank Tommy Cutlets among Thanksgiving QBs.
🪓 Avoid the chop during the #byepocalypse with these under-the-radar Guillotine League recommendations.
Start Your Commanders, Bench A Breakout RB?
By Gene Clemons and John Laghezza
Welcome to the world's greatest Start/Sit column, where John Laghezza and Gene Clemons dig deep into their fantasy football bag of tricks with non-obvious, outside-the-box lineup advice. John's a numbers guy (who writes our betting newsletter), Gene is a literal football coach (who is on our Tuesday LG show, Saturday College Football Pregame Show, and Sunday morning SiriusXM program)—what more could you ask for?
Let's jump in!
Laghezza's Week 12 RBs To Start
Using a weighted mix of over a dozen different advanced stats on each side of the balI, I reverse-power-ranked every defense in the league — all to point fantasy gamers of any league size toward the right start/sit answers this weekend.
Commanders (vs Cowboys)—Double-digit point spreads always make a great place to look for RB breakouts. In fact, this week’s spot versus Dallas could have enough meat on the bone for two. The Cowboys continue to tailspin into irrelevance, losing all four games since the bye, highlighted (lowlighted?) by bottom-5 defensive ranks in rushing yards/game (162.8), yards/rush (5.0), yards before contact/rush (2.21), explosive rush rate (10.9%), rushing TDS (8), and fantasy points allowed/game to RBs (22.9). Yikes. Jayden Daniels has run less since his rib injury, opening the door for a returning Brian Robinson to hit his fantasy ceiling on Sunday. Mix in the lack of a true secondary target behind Terry McLaurin, and even backup Austin Ekeler could pop as a strong FLEX play out of the backfield again.
Buccaneers (vs Giants)—Fantasy playoff-run preparation aside, start charting the Giants' schedule. And get used to seeing them listed here every week. Big Blue hosts the Bucs off a bye, rested and likely returning star WR Mike Evans into the fray. None of this bodes well for the Giants. Newly named QB Tommy DeVito has a major propensity for taking sacks and throwing picks. This often leads to short fields and tons of high-value fantasy opportunities for opposing RBs. If not for some touchdown variance, NYG might be more widely known as the worst run D in the league—they’re dead last this season in yards/rush (5.3), yards after contact/rush (3.59), explosive rush rate (12.5%), and +20-yard attempts (15). I’d even start both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving on the same team.
Gene’s Bold Prediction: Sit Chuba Hubbard RB, Panthers
Don't get it twisted, the Panthers do not play the Giants every week. While Hubbard has been impressive this season, outside of the Broncos, what elite defense have the Panthers faced since their Week 1 implosion? The answer is nobody.
That will not be the case this weekend.
They welcome in a pissed-off Kansas City Chiefs team fresh off a close loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs have not given up much in the run game, and if they surrender over 100 rushing yards it's normally a group effort. No one has trampled the Chiefs on the ground. That has led to lean days in fantasy for opposing backs.
We have seen backs be able to cobble together good fantasy performances using their receiving upside to supplement their rushing. Hubbard has only one game this season where he was a factor as a pass receiver. That was a 5-reception, 55-yard effort where he found the end zone against the Raiders.
But this is definitely not the Raiders.
The Chiefs have linebackers who can run with tight ends and running backs. They also possess a pass rush that can rattle a young quarterback who has struggled to stay upright in the pocket. This is just an overall bad spot for Hubbard to operate in. If you have other options you want to break them out.
MORE START/SIT ANSWERS FOR WEEK 12
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