Patrick Mahomes, Alvin Kamara Fantasy Outlook: Week 10 Sheesh Report
- Alvin Kamara … SHEESH
- Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
- I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)
- The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
- TD! Wait: Flag.
- What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
- Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
Ian Hartitz recaps the players and plays that came so close to fantasy football glory, but sadly just left you saying "Sheesh."
Week 10 has come and gone. We saw 14 NFL games that brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from last week that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh!" I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by a penalty
- Other random shit that managed to tilt fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with one of the sheeshier moments of Week 10 …
Alvin Kamara … SHEESH
The Saints' longtime stud RB had a perfectly solid afternoon at the office last Sunday. Overall, Kamara's 109 total yards marked the seventh time he's eclipsed the century mark in 10 tries this season; the 29-year-old veteran has by all accounts proved to still very much be a great football player in the year 2024.
That said, it sure would have been a lot cooler if he had hauled in this game-clinching 56-yard TD.
The Saints still won, but I'm willing to guess fantasy managers and anytime-TD bettors let out a few select four-letter words upon seeing this one. Good things readers of this column already know there's an easy child- and public-proof way of expressing displeasure at any given tilting football moment: Just say, "Sheesh!"
Of course, Kamara wasn't the only player to let six points slide through their fingertips last week.
The Butterfingers Police: Dropped touchdowns
While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one, and we, unfortunately, had to watch the following eight players let a good-enough potential TD bounce off their hands and fall incomplete in Week 10:
- Saints RB Alvin Kamara (56)
- Chargers TE Will Dissly (19)
- Colts WR Josh Downs (9)
- Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (5, but caught a TD on the next play)
- Chargers TE Hayden Hurst (5)
- Steelers WR Calvin Austin (3)
- Commanders WR Dyami Brown (3)
- Cardinals TE Trey McBride (1)
Additionally, Jets WR Davante Adams was officially charged with a drop on this potential 3-yard TD, but further replay sure seemed to show the pass was deflected before it got to him. An argument could also be made for Panthers WR Jalen Coker (5); I'm more of the opinion the incompletion was more of a great defensive play than a bad drop.
And then there was Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, who was the latest victim of Jerry Jones' ongoing perplexing decision to not cover up the incredibly inconvenient sun glare that regularly blinds players during the late-afternoon hours.
Man, those plays sucked. If only there was a way to actually calculate which pass catchers dealt with the most overall sheesh last week …
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: Seven players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 10:
- Lions WR Jameson Williams (94)
- Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte (83)
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (82)
- Bears WR Darnell Mooney (81)
- Bengals WR Jermaine Burton (80)
- Titans WR Calvin Ridley (78)
- Jaguars WR Gabe Davis (70)
Through 10 weeks the top-3 players in unrealized air yards: Ridley (704), Giants WR Malik Nabers (596), and Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (562).
Again: Some of these issues were on the receiver, and some were on the QB—but our next category of sheesh will simply focus on the latter scenario.
I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)
I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 10 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were quite a few instances that stuck out:
- Commanders WR Luke McCaffrey (97—seriously!)
- Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (65)
- Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (51)
- Buccaneers WR Ryan Miller (34)
- Texans WR Tank Dell (30)
- Bills TE Dalton Kincaid (28)
- Saints TE Foster Moreau (14)
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (7)
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (2)
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (2)
That's right: Patrick Mahomes had two separate opportunities to tack on TDs in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs' Week 10 win over the Broncos, and yet here we are sheeshing.
Our next category is arguably the most sheeshy of them all…
The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 10’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier (x3, same drive)
- Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (this has become a trend)
- Saints RB Alvin Kamara
- Cardinals RB James Conner
- Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins
- Steelers RB Jaylen Warren (lost fumble)
- Jaguars RB Travis Etienne
- Commanders WR Terry McLaurin
- Falcons WR Darnell Mooney
- Jaguars WR Gabe Davis
- Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith
- Panthers TE Ja'Tavion Sanders
- Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
Man, these sucked. Of course, arguably the only thing sheesh-ier than near-miss TDs are scores that were initially counted … until they weren't.
TD! Wait: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the roller coaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
In Week 10 there were two such instances:
- Panthers QB Bryce Young found WR David Moore for a 7-yard TD, only for the score to be nullified due to an illegal formation penalty. Too bad for any desperate Young fantasy managers out there, but Panthers fans shouldn't be too worked up: Chuba Hubbard would cap the drive off with a short TD run anyway.
- Saints TE Taysom Hill took the team's first offensive play from scrimmage 88 yards to the house on a rather electric catch and run. One problem: Foster Moreau absolutely held the shit out of Falcons S Jessie Bates, creating and accordingly nullifying the TD.
In addition to these TDs, Jets TE Tyler Conklin (20), Broncos RB Audric Estime (17), Commanders WR Noah Brown (15), and Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte (15) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.
Gotta love it when officials insist on making the games about them. Wait, we actually hate that? Right. Of course. Let's focus on more of that hate then …
What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.
Overall, seven players gained at least 15 yards courtesy of DPI penalties in Week 10:
- Giants WR Jalin Hyatt (43)
- Texans WR Xavier Hutchinson (41)
- Falcons WR Darnell Mooney (29)
- Commanders WR Noah Brown (23)
- Jets WR Xavier Gipson (16)
- 49ers WR Jauan Jennings (15)
- Cardinals WR Zay Jones (15)
Brown (144) has a full 64 additional yards drawn on DPI penalties than the next-closest player this season (Mooney, 80). Madness.
Our last category of sheesh centers around determining which QBs perhaps deserve some slack for their on-paper turnovers …
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the box score.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 10 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Lions QB Jared Goff (x3): His first INT was tipped at the line on what was a routine pass to the flat intended for Jahmyr Gibbs. His second was tipped while he was throwing and fluttered straight to a nearby defender. The third was a Hail Mary at the end of the first half. The other two certainly seemed to be mostly Goff's fault.
- Giants QB Daniel Jones (x2): Jones' first INT was deflected into the air at the line of scrimmage, while the second hit both of Tyrone Tracy's hands before being ripped away for the pick. The latter was certainly a bit more egregious considering: 1.) The throw was a little behind Tracy, and 2.) Jones had no business throwing eight yards short of the sticks on 3rd and 7 in the first place, but the miscue did, in fact, go down in the books as a drop.
- Steelers QB Russell Wilson: Essentially produced a 54-yard punt by heaving a deep ball to George Pickens in double-coverage on 3rd and 14. The most important part here is that the INT produced yet another hilarious Pickens moment.
- Colts QB Joe Flacco: It's tough to blame anyone other than Flacco for two of his three INTs on Sunday, although his second one was at least a little defensible considering it was a screen and more of a great individual effort by the Bills defensive lineman than a terrible pass.
- Rams QB Matthew Stafford: His lone INT was tipped at the line of scrimmage and unfortunately (for him) went directly to the Dolphins. Still a turnover, but not exactly the world's most-egregious INT.
On the other side of things, the following QBs were lucky to not register an extra turnover, as PFF deemed these incomplete passes as dropped INTs: Drake Maye (x2), Patrick Mahomes (x1), Aaron Rodgers (x1), Lamar Jackson (x1), Jared Goff (x1), and Cooper Rush (x1). The league leaders in dropped INTs are Matthew Stafford (x6), Jameis Winston (x5), and Baker Mayfield (x5).
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 11.