As part of Fantasy Life's 2024 Fantasy Hockey Draft Kit, Geoff Ulrich has broken down his Players to Avoid in Fantasy Hockey for 2024:

Last week we released the full Fantasy Hockey Draft Kit for 2024, which included overall ranks for the top 150 players.

A lot of those top players will get tons of exposure and analysis before the season begins, making the edge in drafting in those early rounds a little harder to exploit. Luckily ranks like ours can help us prepare for drafts but also don’t tell the whole story.

As drafters knowing which players may have more atypical downside next year is important, especially when you are contemplating two or more players for a pick. If both players are equal in projections, but one player has far more tail risk (injury history, an unstable depth chart, a lack of large sample size) then often it's best to avoid that player at all costs.

Before we jump into it today, be sure to check out our positional rankings for the following:

Today we’re going to focus exclusively on those Do Not Draft Players; aka players who have the downside risk of potentially blowing up and cratering your fantasy hockey lineup. 

Centers To Avoid In Fantasy Hockey 2024

John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs

Now 34, Tavares is coming off a down-season where he regressed to 0.81 points per game vs the 1.0 ppg he put up in 2022-23. It’s not the end of the world but at this point in his career, you also have to take it as a potential sign that he is slowing down as a scorer.

Unfortunately for him and his fantasy value, the Leafs have also bought into this notion as they are currently trying out William Nylander as the second-line center to start the season. Who knows how long that will last but bumping down Tavares to the third line, into a potential checking line role, is not great for his value. 

With higher-end scorers like Tim Stützle and Roope Hintz, who are still on the upside portion of their careers going around him in drafts, Tavares is a player I’d rather just fade completely in 2024-25.

Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks

I’m not fully out on Pettersson, who is an elite real-life player, but ultimately question if he has enough upside to outperform his current draft slot. Here is what I wrote in our 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Center Rankings.

“Pettersson’s numbers regressed a little in 2023-24 as he dipped to 1.08 PPG. He did post a career-best +20 in plus/minus ratings, but he was bypassed in scoring by J.T. Miller. 

I think Pettersson has all the talent in the world, but at this point, I also feel like he’s simply just a better two-way player than an offensive superstar. I see last year as pretty in line with what to expect in 2024-25. The Canucks also worry me from a regression standpoint, as they ran super hot on the power play last season and may have goalie issues that could hamper their top player's plus/minus stats.”

Wingers To Avoid In Fantasy Hockey 2024

Sam Reinhart, RW, Florida Pathers

Ultimately, I am a little scared of Reinhart’s goal totals dipping after he shot the lights out in 2024-25. Here is what I wrote about the winger in our 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Winger Rankings.

“Reinhart scored a career-high 57 goals last year. As such, he’s now coming off the board much higher than he has been in the past and people who take the Panthers winger will almost need him to duplicate or come close to duplicating his 2023-24 numbers.

Straight up, Reinhart’s 24% shooting percentage from last season was otherworldly and unsustainable. If he starts falling in ADP then sure, he’ll be a reliable first-line winger, but as of now, I’d much rather look for better value than pay up and have to rely on him shooting the lights out for a second year in a row.”

Blake Coleman, RW, Calgary Flames 

Coleman is a pretty classic fade candidate for me. He’s a 32-year-old winger who is coming off a career season where he potted 30 goals for the first time as a pro. He’ll also be playing on a weaker team in the Flames who seem likely to give their top two wingers a lot of special teams and ice time this season.

When it comes down to it, this just isn’t a player who projects to have much more upside than he showed last season but is now going in front of players like Cole Caufield and Alexis Lafrenière, who have far more upside potential. Outside of their top line, the Flames forwards are just a pass for me in general.

Defensemen To Avoid In Fantasy Hockey 2024

Alex Pietrangelo (Vegas Golden Knights)

Here is what I wrote about Pietrangelo in our 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Defensemen Rankings. 

“The Golden Knights have built a stout defensive core that includes Noah Hanifin and Shea Theodore, two players who can carry power plays on their own. That is likely to mean less power play time overall for the now 34-year-old Pietrangelo, who averaged just 0.45 points per game last season. I still expect Pietrangelo to play a ton, but the Golden Knights have no reason to overuse him on special teams making a bounceback in production unlikely.”

Thomas Chabot, Ottawa Senators 

It’s pretty simple when it comes to the Senators' blueline this year for me--it’s Jake Sanderson or bust.

Sanderson projects to lead the Senators' power play and also could see a significant bump in play, overall, as he projects as a player who can handle a heavy workload. While Sanderson isn’t a lock to have a big year, he’s certainly got more upside potential at this point than Chabot, and can often be had for cheaper in drafts–making Sanderson the proverbial “better gamble” for me in fantasy.

Chabot still has value, but has never been a prolific scorer on the backend, even when he’s played huge minutes in the past. With his volume decreasing, there is more potential downside risk than upside, making him a stay away for me in 2024-25.  

Goalies To Avoid In Fantasy Hockey 2024

Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida Panthers

I wrote about why Bobrovsky is somewhat of a stay-away for me at his current valuation in our 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Goalie Rankings. 

“The Panthers look like they’ll be working in Spencer Knight this season who posted five Shutouts in the AHL last year.

Knight is still a high-end prospect and Bobrovsky is 35, coming off a long playoff run, and hasn’t been a truly dominant regular-season goalie for years. I have him ranked 8th just because he’s attached to such a high-end team in the Panthers, but his upside feels worse than most of the players ranked directly in front or behind him.”

Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues

Binnington had a solid bounceback season in 2023-24. He posted a .913 SV%, which was the second-best mark of his career, and 28 wins (also the second-best mark of his career). Unfortunately, a lot of that goodness from last season has now been baked into his price as he’s going in front of lead goalies on teams like the Kings and Golden Knights who project for much higher win totals in 2024-25 than the Blues.

Binnington should be in a spot to start 55-60 games again but if he does regress statistically, then the team likely won’t do enough to support his current ADP. Ultimately, there are just players with better or similar upside going after Binnington in drafts, making him a stay away for me.