If you think about it, there’s an inherent incongruence with the term "QB sleepers."

We know who they all are. They’re the faces of billion-dollar franchises. We see these players in commercials. One (briefly) flirted with a political career. They’re household names.

Then we start drafting.

Once we’re on the clock, rational thought takes a back seat to vibes. Stats, context and arbitrage value get thrown aside for who performed the best last year. Like actual GMs, we lean toward making publicly acceptable moves over franchise-altering decisions. But with a better process, we can identify the next set of QBs worth taking a swing on in 2024.

Process

I wanted to establish point thresholds for QBs, but how we value them differs from the other skill positions. With fewer viable signal-callers, we can’t just use top 12 or top 24 like we do for RB1s or WR2s. So, for passers, I used the last five years of data to find reasonable breakpoints.

  • Top 6: 354.0 total PPR points, 21.9 points per game
  • Top 12: 292.5, 18.4
  • Top 16: 248.6, 16.4
  • Top 24: 208.7, 14.9

Jordan Love’s 2023 season is our most recent diamond-in-the-rough performance. Certainly, drafting a QB with a high-end play-caller and a plethora of weapons makes sense now. But similar logic could have applied to selecting Bryce Young last year. Accordingly, hit rates for late-round signal-callers point to more of a "dart-throw" approach than a structured process.

  • Top 6: 1.3%
  • Top 12: 6.3%
  • Top 16: 12.5%
  • Top 24: 27.5%

Of course we’d like to find the next Brock Purdy or C.J. Stroud, but we also could wind up with the latest version of Mac Jones. Luckily, there are some attributes we can look for as a guide.

Establishing Archetypes

There’s no secret to targeting QBs with rushing upside. It’s why we’ve pushed passers such as Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts to the front of drafts. But even the late-round superstars have highlighted the traits we want: above-average efficiency and aggressive throwing tendencies. And the data emphasizes these needs. 

  • EPA per dropback: 0.34 (r-squared)
  • Air Yards per Attempt: 0.14
  • Rushing Rate (scrambles + designed runs): 0.11
  • Pressure-to-Sack Rate: 0.09

Overall, these attributes pass the sniff test. EPA depends not only on the QB (e.g. accuracy, ball placement), but also on the receiver (i.e. creating yards after the catch). It’s why all but one triggerman to eclipse 300 PPR points from the later rounds had at least two receivers ranked in the top 30 in YPRR. Challenging the second level of the defense was also a commonality, with 83.3% averaging more than 8.0 air yards per attempt.

Being able to move around (and past) the pocket becomes a luxury we can’t always project in the final rounds. Instead, focusing on unexpected efficiency can lead us to undervalued passing games worth targeting with our last few picks.

2024 QB Sleepers

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Admittedly, the name Aaron Rodgers and the word "sleeper" don’t belong in the same sentence. In fact, they’re opposites; even people outside of football know Rodgers. In some alternate universe, he’s our vice president. But I find it objectively funny that fantasy managers are drafting Kirk Cousins ahead of Rodgers.

You know, the guy who also tore his Achilles tendon … nearly two months after Rodgers.

Sure, the vibes might be better in ATL, and the Jets’ offense was ranked toward the bottom in almost every efficiency metric. But in terms of opportunity, we might be sleeping on Gang Green.

  • Plays per game (after Week 4): 34.3 (10th)
  • Pass Rate Over Expectation: -0.8% (12th)
  • Average Time of Possession: 30:09 (15th)

The Week 4 cutoff looks arbitrary, but after their narrow loss to the Chiefs, Breece Hall averaged more than 50% of the snaps for the rest of the season. Regardless, New York fielded five starters under center throughout the season and still threw the ball and ran plays at a top-12 rate. Plus, their defense — a top-five unit by defensive EPA per play — kept the ball in their possession for more than half of most games. If you stripped the names and historical angst surrounding the team away, you could see the optimism.

The Jets have made some gambles in free agency regarding who will protect or catch passes from Rodgers, but there’s no doubt the roster is in a better spot than it was in ’22. And with the future Hall of Famer at the helm, the pass-game volume will have more of an impact.

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

Look at Levis’ first game as a starter.

He attempted only six passes (most of them in the short area of the field to his RBs or TE) before launching a deep strike to DeAndre Hopkins for a 47-yard score. The Titans couldn’t keep him off the field after that. Injuries did, though.

Nevertheless, for an eight-game stretch, Levis provided enough evidence to warrant Tennessee building around him. The fantasy results weren’t always there (just one top-12 finish), but his rankings in a couple of key underlying metrics are worth a second look.

  • Air Yards per Attempt: 1st
  • EPA per dropback (min. 175 dropbacks): 14th 

Levis had two main problems while navigating his rookie season: a porous offensive line and a weak supporting cast. The front office fixed the first problem. Cleveland’s former offensive line guru, Bill Callahan, joined his son (head coach Brian Callahan) to revamp the Titans’ trenches. Even though the Browns dealt with their woes up front, Tennessee would have happily switched places to keep their QBs upright.

  • Sack Rate Allowed: 6.7% for CLE, 11.5% for TEN
  • Pressure Rate Allowed: 35.4%, 42.3%
  • QB Hits Allowed: 47, 66

Levis also has more options to target. Calvin Ridley joins Hopkins as the second perimeter WR, and RB Tony Pollard will complement Tyjae Spears. Ridley’s 13.9 aDOT in Jacksonville tied his second-highest career mark while he served as the Jaguars’ WR1. With more time to throw and more deep and intermediate pass-catchers (e.g. Treylon Burks, Chig Okonkwo), spike weeks from Levis won’t be an uncommon projection.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Now here’s where the term QB and sleeper work in the same sentence. 

Not because we don’t know who Geno Smith is. Everyone recognizes Mr. "They Wrote Me Off, I Ain’t Write Back Tho." But fantasy managers are tired of him nonetheless — our eyes glaze over when seeing his name. Seattle is already hedging its bets on the journeyman with their acquisition of Sam Howell.

But the Seahawks’ coaching staff shuffle should put Smith back on our radar. New OC Ryan Grubb was the (partial) architect of the University of Washington’s offensive success, and a few of the Huskies’ passing game elements caught my eye.

Washington's offense stressed the intermediate and deep parts of the field. Michael Penix Jr. had a 10.4-yard aDOT under Grubb, the second-highest mark in this year’s QB class. Accordingly, Penix's 21.5% deep-ball rate ranked ninth in the FBS. Smith had top-10 grades on attempts of 20 yards or more in back-to-back seasons and sits right at the league average in air yards per attempt since taking over in Seattle (7.3). More aggression from Smith and creative play-calling combined with explosive pass-catchers such as DK Metcalf or Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be a welcome sight.

Additionally, the Huskies used motion and 12 personnel to create coverage mismatches in high-leverage situations. Smith’s passing efficiency dropped to 24th in obvious passing scenarios because nobody was open. Meanwhile, Grubb’s offense was converting third downs at the highest rate in the NCAA during Penix’s first year under center. The Seahawks already have the infrastructure to put Smith in a better position to execute. And under Grubb’s guidance, Smith can ascend into the fringe top-12 ranks again in 2024.