Matthew Freedman highlights the top quarterback plays for fantasy football in Week 13. 

It's the week of Thanksgiving, which means it's time for my annual (and highly official and by no means idiosyncratic and arbitrary) pie rankings.

In previous seasons, I have provided rankings and notes for the top 25.

This year, I'm sticking with just the top five: Freedman's favorites (pie edition).

And, of course, I'll provide brief thoughts on some honorable mentions as well as the stone-cold worst pie type in existence.

Worst Pie Ever: Mincemeat

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who invite others over for Thanksgiving and then proceed to foist upon them the most disgusting culinary concoction ever conceived.

And then there are the normal people. Everyday folks like you and me.

I pray you never find yourself at the house of an acquaintance needing to pretend that mincemeat pie is not, in fact, a crime against humanity.

I myself once had to navigate such dangerous waters. I survived. I'm no hero. Just a guy with a medium-strong stomach and the willingness to lie.

By the way, have I mentioned how great you look today?

Honorable Mentions

  • Lemon Meringue: Mom's favorite
  • Banana Cream: Above-average palate cleanser between other, better pies
  • Peanut Butter: With milk
  • Any Non-Strawberry Berry Pie: Standard
  • Peach: My go-to high-school favorite

No. 5: Apple Pie

A case could be made for apple as high as No. 1 and low as No. 7. A great apple offering is hard to beat, and even a bad one is average.

It's almost impossible to have too many apple pies at a gathering.

No. 4: Key Lime Pie

You might not think of this as a Thanksgiving dessert—but it is if you pour some cranberry sauce on it.

But really any season of year is a fine time for key lime.

No. 3: Pecan Pie

Easy to get wrong, but perfection if gotten right.

  • Pecans from Texas
  • Bourbon from Kentucky
  • Recipe from Louisiana

Best when baked by a grandmother and accompanied by vanilla ice cream drizzled with caramel.

I've recently been informed that I should expect to enjoy a top-tier chocolate pecan pie at one of the Thanksgiving meals I plan to attend this year.

Reader, I am beyond hopefully enthusiastic.

Wish me good fortune.

No. 2: Pumpkin Pie & Sweet Potato Pie

Pumpkin and sweet potato aren't the same … but I can barely taste the difference. An unsophisticated palate I have.

Both are good … but if they were so good then people (other than Mel Kiper Jr.) would be eating them all year long.

And, sorry, as much as I love pumpkin pie at Thanksgiving and Christmas, there's zero chance I'm eating a slice of it during the summer.

But this next pie—I could eat healthy servings of it at any point of the year.

No. 1: Cherry

For too long I have kowtowed to the orthodoxy that insists upon having pumpkin and/or sweet potato at the top of pie rankings.

No more.

If cherry pie is No. 1 outside of the holiday season—and it is—then it should be No. 1 even in the colder months.

I have decided.

In the words of Warrant, “Tastes so good, make a grown man cry: Sweet cherry pie.”

Best of luck with all your pie-eating and fantasy-dominating endeavors this week.

Freedman's Favorites

As of Tuesday afternoon, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 13 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, we have a full slate of NFL games. No excuses.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 4:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 26, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 13 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Best QBs for Fantasy Football Week 13 

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) at Panthers

  • Buccaneers: -5.5
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 25.75

"And thus the whirligig of time brings in his revenges."

  • Feste, Twelfth Night 

At this exact time two years ago, Baker Mayfield had a 1-5 record with the Panthers, who had just demoted him (a second time) to the No. 2 role.

With a 5.7 AY/A on the season, he had the look of a man destined to be a lifelong backup.

Since then, however, Baker has started 34 games (including postseason), and since joining the Buccaneers in the 2023 offseason he has an NFL-best 52 TDs passing (not including 6 in the 2023-24 playoffs).

I'm not sure if that's revenge served cold, hot, or room temperature—but it's something, and now he gets to face the Panthers, who are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.9).

In his eight games this year with No. 1 WR Mike Evans, who returned from a hamstring injury last week, Mayfield has been a top-10 fantasy finisher in every game but one.

I don't see why that would change this week.

For the game total, I bet over 43.5 in the lookahead market (logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), and I have this game projected at 48.4 in our Fantasy Life Game Models. 

This season, the Buccaneers and Panthers have been two of the league's most over-happy teams (per Action Network).

  • Buccaneers Overs: 7-4 | 21.3% ROI | +7.59 Margin
  • Panthers Overs: 8-3 | 39.2% ROI | +5.73 Margin

I expect this game to produce points, which should benefit a number of players, especially Mayfield.

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Anthony Richardson (Colts) at Patriots

  • Colts: -2.5
  • O/U: 42
  • TT: 22.25

Let's start with what Anthony Richardson doesn't have going for him.

He's without C Ryan Kelly (knee, IR), and LT Bernhard Raimann (back) hasn't played or practiced since exiting Week 10 after just 13 snaps.

He could also be missing WRs Josh Downs (shoulder) and Ashton Dulin (ankle), both of whom exited Week 12 early.

And his inaccuracy is legendary at this point. After having a regrettable 59.5% completion rate last year as a rookie, Richardson (instead of progressing in his second season) has somehow regressed this year to a 47.1% mark, which is accompanied by a poor 3.7% INT rate.

He has a league-best 12.5 intended air yards per pass attempt (per Next Gen Stats). Richardson is willing—even desirous—to attack defenses deep. Still, as a thrower he's maybe the NFL's worst QB.

Just last week he completed only 39.3% of his pass attempts for a scoreless 172 yards.

But his Week 12 wasn't as bad as it seems. He had a dropped TD, a pass of 40-plus yards that was barely incomplete because the receiver didn't get his second foot down, and completions of 79 yards total taken away because of penalties. Sheesh.

Maybe Richardson is slightly better as a passer than we think, and we know about his running ability. Despite playing in just eight games this year, Richardson is 61-335-3 rushing, and the only QBs he trails with 5 goal-line carries are Jalen Hurts (12) and Jayden Daniels (9).

Since last year, Richardson trails only Lamar Jackson (52.0), Daniels (46.3), and Justin Fields (44.3) with his 39.3 rushing yards per game, and that number jumps up to 45.2 if we remove his three injury-impacted starts.

And there's his matchup against the Patriots, who are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (32.8%, per FTN). For at least this week, Richardson might look like a league-average passer.

Despite his subpar passing performances to date, the Colts have exceeded expectations with Richardson, who is 8-4 ATS (28.1% ROI) for his career.

The Dropback

Jalen Hurts (Eagles +3, TT: 23.75) at Ravens: Hurts has an elite 10.3 AY/A and 73-293-9 rushing in seven games since the Week 5 bye, and road underdogs are 26-18-1 ATS (13.5% ROI) against the Ravens with QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.151, per RBs Don't Matter), and if the Eagles beat them they could finish the season 15-2 given their remaining schedule (vs. CAR, vs. PIT, at WAS, vs. DAL, vs. NYG), which would make Hurts an intriguing MVP candidate at his current price of +4000 (at FanDuel).

Justin Herbert (Chargers -2, TT: 24.75) at Falcons: Herbert has had MVP-adjacent numbers since the Week 5 bye (260.9 passing yards per game, 9.0 AY/A, 31-187-2 rushing). The Chargers are disadvantaged traveling east for an early game on a short week off Monday Night Football, but Herbert on the road is a solid 21-15 ATS (12.0% ROI). The Falcons are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (19.0%).

Russell Wilson (Steelers +2.5, TT: 22.25) at Bengals: The Bengals are off the bye, but that's mitigated by the fact that the Steelers last played on Thursday Night Football. This is a classic spot in which the Steelers have tended to outperform under HC Mike Tomlin, who is 63-35-4 ATS (24.7% ROI) as an underdog, 61-44-4 ATS (13.3% ROI) in division, and 58-43 ATS (12.7% ROI) off a loss—and an outstanding 9-3 ATS (41.3%) as a divisional dog off a loss. With his 8.1 AY/A, Wilson has looked like the 2018-19 version of himself, and the Bengals are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (22.1). 

Bryce Young (Panthers +5.5, TT: 20.25) vs. Buccaneers: I still have Young as -2.4 points against the spread relative to backup Andy Dalton (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart), but he has been competent (6.1 AY/A, 12-65-0 rushing) in his four games since returning to the starting lineup in Week 8. The Bucs are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (51.2%).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)