Matthew Freedman highlights his favorite quarterbacks to start in fantasy football in Week 14.

Well, it's here.

Week 14.

As Hamlet puts it: "If it be now, 'tis not to come; if it be not to come, it will be now; if it be not now, yet it will come. The readiness is all."

I don't know what that means, but it sounds important.

The time is now. For most fantasy leagues, this is the final week of the regular season. For some fantasy managers, this is a commencement: The true beginning of the fantasy playoffs. Win and in. Lose and out.

For others, this is a conclusion: The end, no matter what.

And for a few borderline souls … a purgatory. At this point, your fate is out of your hands. You just have to wait and see what happens.

Regardless of your station entering this terminus, may the pigskin gods look upon you kindly.

No matter who you are, we all can use a little mercy.

Freedman's Favorites

As of Tuesday morning, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 14 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, the Ravens, Commanders, Texans, Broncos, Colts, and Patriots are on bye.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 3, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 14 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Best QBs for Fantasy Football Week 14

Jalen Hurts (Eagles) vs. Panthers

  • Eagles: -12.5
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 29.25

Let's be real for a second. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley is great. He leads the league in both rushing attempts (246) and yards per carry (6.1). With elite volume and efficiency, he has a godlike and NFL-best 124.9 rushing yards per game.

Barring injury, he's almost certain to win Offensive Player of the Year, where he's a -500 favorite.

But there's no chance—absolutely no way—that Barkley is worth more to the Eagles than Jalen Hurts.

And yet in the MVP market Barkley is +500 (FanDuel) while Hurts is +6600 (BetMGM).

That's wrong.

Neither player is likely to win MVP, which will probably go to Bills QB Josh Allen—and rightfully so. But the Bills could lose 1-2 of their next five games (at LAR, at DET, vs NE, vs. NYJ, at NE), whereas the Eagles have a real shot to finish 15-2 with their remaining schedule (vs. CAR, vs. PIT, at WAS, vs. DAL, vs. NYG).

And if that happens, I think Hurts—not Barkley—will ultimately draw credit from AP voters, who have given the award to QBs in each of the past 11 seasons.

In 2022, Hurts was the MVP frontrunner when he was sidelined near the end of the season with a shoulder injury. In 2023, he was the MVP frontrunner shortly before the Eagles lost five of their final six games. For almost three straight years, Hurts has played at an MVP-adjacent level—and he's arguably having the best season of his career.

Since the Week 5 bye, the Eagles are 8-0, and Hurts has an elite 10.0 AY/A and absurd 82-322-10 rushing. For the season, he's the No. 1 QB with 13 goal-line carries as well as a 23% designed rush rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Say whatever you want about Hurts as a passer, but this year he has been notably efficient—and as a runner he has been verifiably valuable.

Especially after going on the road this past week and winning as an underdog against the Ravens, Hurts in no universe should have odds this long to win MVP. I bet him to win the award in the offseason at +1400, and then shortly after the Eagles beat the Ravens I added to my position with an outrageous +10000 ticket (logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

From now until the end of the season, I expect Hurts to build a compelling (even if not winning) MVP case, and that starts against the Panthers, who are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.173, per RBs Don't Matter).

Road underdogs are usually sharp in the betting market, but with Hurts the Eagles have exceeded expectations as home favorites (per Action Network).

  • Hurts ATS as Home Favorite: 15-8-1 | 23.6% ROI | +2.42 Margin
  • Hurts ML as Home Favorite: 21-3 | 20.6% ROI | +9.75 Margin

With a week-high implied team total (29.25), the Eagles should put up points, and I expect Hurts to be the leader in that effort.

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Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Packers

  • Lions: -3.5
  • O/U: 51.5
  • TT: 27.5

I don't expect Jared Goff to win MVP. 

His 5-INT debacle against the Texans in Week 10 feels disqualifying almost all on its own, and he doesn't have the raw volume of passing production statistics that MVPs normally have.

  • Yards Passing: 2,982 | No. 8
  • TDs Passing: 22 | No. 5

Plus, he adds almost nothing as a runner (25-40-0 rushing).

But over the past decade almost every MVP has been a top-two finisher in team seeding, composite EPA + CPOE, and AY/A.

As it happens, Goff comes quite close to checking the box in every category.

  • Team Seeding: 11-1 | No. 1 in NFC
  • EPA + CPOE: 0.176 | No. 1 in NFL
  • AY/A: 8.9 | No. 3 in NFL

And if we remove Steelers QB Russell Wilson from consideration (given that he has started just six games), then Goff moves to No. 2 in AY/A.

At just +1400 (FanDuel), Goff is an MVP candidate a la 2023 Brock Purdy: No one really believes he's "worthy" of winning the award—but he's got a chance to do it because he has the numbers that matter.

And his MVP candidacy could get a big boost this week if he balls out against the Packers in prime time.

The situational spot for Goff is ideal: He's indoors at home, where he will have his second straight game and third in four weeks. And the matchup is also advantageous: The Packers are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (50.6%), and the Lions with Goff have had success against them.

  • Goff ATS vs. Packers: 5-2 | 36.1% ROI | +3.71 Margin
  • Goff ML vs. Packers: 5-2 | 67.0% ROI | +2.29 Margin

Only QBs Joe Burrow and Sam Darnold (nine each) have more multi-TD passing games than Goff does this year (eight). If he throws for 2+ scores again this week, expect to start hearing MVP chants at Ford Field.

The Dropback

Sam Darnold (Vikings -5, TT: 25.25) vs. Falcons: In half his games this year, Darnold has been a top-10 QB in fantasy, and in reality he's the No. 6 QB on the season with an 8.3 AY/A. Darnold … might be good at football? Also, with the ex-wife back in town, the Vikings could be motivated to show off the new girlfriend (so to speak) in an organizational #RevengeGame against former QB Kirk Cousins.

Will Levis (Titans -3.5, TT: 21.5) vs. Jaguars: Levis isn't great, but he has a respectable 960 yards and 7 TDs passing to just 2 INTs with 22-66-0 rushing in four games since returning to the starting lineup. The Jaguars are No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+7.0). Where available on waivers, Levis is worth a look.

Cooper Rush (Cowboys +5.5, TT: 22) vs. Bengals: In his 10 career games as a starter, Rush is a heroic 7-3 ATS (34.0% ROI) and 7-3 ML (101.0% ROI). I still have him as just +1.5 points against the spread relative to third-stringer Trey Lance (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart), but Rush has been competent in his three full starts this year with 796 yards and 4 TDs passing to 1 INT. The Bengals are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (25.0%, per FTN).

Aidan O'Connell (Raiders +7, TT: 19.5) at Buccaneers: O'Connell offers almost nothing on the ground (11 rushing yards for his career), but in his two full starts this year he has passed for 567 yards and 3 TDs to 1 INT. That's workable. For his career, O'Connell is an exceptional 9-3-1 ATS (41.3% ROI), and the Buccaneers are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.1%). I expect points in this contest: For the game total, I like over 44.5 and have it projected at 46.7 in our Fantasy Life Game Models.

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)