Matthew Freedman highlights his top quarterbacks for fantasy football in Week 16.

Week 16.

The wheat has separated from the chaff. The cream has risen to the top. The ale has aged in the barrel. The cheese has molded.

Actually, I'm not sure if that last one is a good thing.

But you get the idea.

In most fantasy leagues, just four teams remain in the playoffs.

We have arrived at the semifinals.

The penultimate challenge one must overcome on the way to a championship.

Whether you had a Round 1 bye, dominated your competition last week, or just squeaked out a win to reach this all-important point, you're here.

This is where everything gets real.

From here on out, there are no easy wins, no soft matchups, no pretenders.

In Week 16, legitimate contenders for the crown are all that remain.

The weather may be cold, but this is the time of the season that forges the sword of victory.

You are now in the fire.

All that's left is to determine if you're a human … or a dragon.

Freedman's Favorites

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 16 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 17, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 16 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Top Quarterbacks for Week 16 Fantasy Football

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) at Cowboys

  • Buccaneers: -3.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 25.75

Since the Week 11 bye, Baker Mayfield has 5 INTs over the past four games. For the season, he has 14 INTs in 14 starts.

With Mayfield, there's always a little bit of bad with the good.

The good news is that he has given fantasy investors a baker's dozen's worth of good since joining the Buccaneers last year.

Over the past two seasons, Mayfield has an NFL-best 60 TDs passing, and that doesn't include his 6 in the 2023-24 playoffs.

Even with his 5 INTs over the past month, Mayfield also has 1,112 yards and 8 TDs passing in that span as well as 11-74-1 rushing.

In 11 games this year with No. 1 WR Mike Evans, Mayfield has had a positional fantasy finish outside the top 10 just twice.

I love the matchup for Mayfield against the Cowboys, who are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.8).

For the game total, I bet over 47 in the lookahead market (logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), and I have this game projected at 50.0 in our Fantasy Life Game Models. 

This season, the Buccaneers and Cowboys have both been strong over teams in the betting market (per Action Network).

  • Buccaneers Overs: 9-5 | 22.5% ROI | +6.54 Margin
  • Cowboys Overs: 9-5 | 23.0% ROI | +2.61 Margin

I expect points in this game, and that should benefit Mayfield as the facilitator of the Bucs offense.

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Russell Wilson (Steelers) at Ravens

  • Steelers: +6.5
  • O/U: 44.5
  • TT: 19

The last time I highlighted Russell Wilson in this piece was Week 11—against the Ravens.

He did little of note in that game, as evidenced by his 4.4 AY/A and … checks notes … 1 yard rushing.

Even though the Steelers won, they didn't score one TD all day.

Terrible.

Even so—and even without No. 1 WR George Pickens (hamstring), whom I expect to miss his third straight game with a soft-tissue injury—I still like Wilson this week.

First, there's the matchup: The Ravens are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.2).

And then there's the situation. It's not ideal that the Steelers are on the road. In fact, this is their fifth away game in seven weeks since the bye. Not great. But, otherwise, this is a classic spot in which the Steelers have tended to outperform expectations under HC Mike Tomlin.

  • Tomlin Off Loss: 59-43 ATS (13.5% ROI) | 63-38 ML (13.2% ROI)
  • Tomlin in Division: 63-44-4 ATS (14.7% ROI) | 76-34-1 ML (18.5% ROI)
  • Tomlin as Underdog: 64-36-4 ATS (24.2% ROI) | 54-50 ML (31.1% ROI)
  • Tomlin Total Eclipse: 10-3 ATS (45.1% ROI) | 9-4 ML (71.2% ROI)

Tomlin's teams have dominated off losses, in division, and as underdogs … and they have been exceptional whenever those three situations have aligned.

As it happens, Wilson has also been strong throughout his career off a loss and as an underdog.

  • Wilson Off Loss: 38-26-5 ATS (14.7% ROI) | 45-24 ML (6.3% ROI)
  • Wilson as Underdog: 43-24-2 ATS (24.5% ROI) | 32-36-1 ML (18.8% ROI)
  • Wilson Off Loss as Dog: 17-7 ATS (37.3% ROI) | 12-12 ML (17.7% ROI)

Wilson is No. 3 this year with an 8.7 AY/A. He's still able to play at an efficiently productive level.

The Dropback

Josh Allen (Bills -14, TT: 30.25) vs. Patriots: Allen is a massive -900 favorite to win MVP, and since the Week 12 bye he has 852 yards and 7 TDs passing, 24-168-6 rushing, and a 7-yard TD receiving in three games. The Bills have a week-high implied team total (30.25), and the Patriots are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.181, per RBs Don't Matter). 

Kyler Murray (Cardinals -4.5, TT: 25.75) at Panthers: Murray has a high fantasy floor with 257 yards passing and 21 yards rushing per game since the Week 11 bye, and his matchup against the Panthers—No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (23.6%, per FTN)—endows him now with a significant ceiling.

Bryce Young (Panthers +4.5, TT: 21.25) vs. Panthers: Young is still only -1.7 points against the spread relative to backup Andy Dalton (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart), but he has played his best professional ball since returning to the starting lineup in Week 8 (6.0 AY/A, 25-123-2 rushing in seven games). The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (50.3%).

Cooper Rush (Cowboys +3.5, TT: 22.25) vs. Buccaneers: In 12 career starts, Rush is an epic 8-4 ATS (28.3% ROI) and 8-4 ML (85.8% ROI). In his five full starts this year, he has 1,193 yards and 9 TDs passing to just 2 INTs. The Bucs are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.7).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)
  • Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)