“Who do you like this week?”

Great question from the gentleman in the front row. Thanks for asking.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite quarterbacks for fantasy football Week 4—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my fantasy football rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Rankings Accuracy: Last year I was No. 18 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. That was my sixth season with a top-20 finish.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sep. 24, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

For the rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 4, sorted by position, see below:

Best QBs for Fantasy Football Week 4

Kyler Murray (Cardinals) vs. Commanders

  • Cardinals: -3.5
  • O/U: 50.5
  • TT: 27

For the second week in a row, Kyler Murray—Matthew Berry's 2024 Ride or Die—is my QB headliner.

And last week wasn't great, as he passed for just 207 yards and a TD with 1 INT while adding a typical 5-45-0 rushing. That's not terrible, but it's not what we were hoping for, especially given the favorable matchup against the Lions.

But there are matchups—and then there's THE matchup.

This week's matchup against the Commanders is the latter.

The Commanders are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.500, per RBs Don’t Matter) and pass DVOA (60.8%, per FTN), and that's not a three-week fluke, given that last year they were also No. 32 in those categories (0.199, 34.8%).

Sometimes defensive ineptitude in reality doesn't translate over to fantasy. That's not the case here. The Commanders are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (24.4) and largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+7.1).

Even with his modest Week 3 performance, Murray for the season still has 635 yards passing with 5 TDs to just 1 INT with a 68.6% completion rate, and he looks fully recovered from his 2022 knee injury with 15-161-0 rushing.

The Cardinals have a week-high implied team total, and in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, I have a +10000 ticket on them to win the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That ticket almost certainly won't cash … but a Freedman can dream.

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Justin Fields (Steelers) at Colts

  • Steelers: -1.5
  • O/U: 40
  • TT: 20.75

Given that the Steelers are 3-0, Justin Fields has a strong 73.3% completion rate, and QB Russell Wilson (calf) was inactive last week and is yet to practice fully, I expect Fields to keep the starting job at least one more game.

There's nothing notable about what Fields has done as a runner this year: 28-90-1 rushing is hardly inspiring considering that he had 160-1,143-8 in 15 games in 2022 and 124-657-4 in 13 last year. His rushing efficiency (7.1 yards per carry, 5.3, 3.2) has plummeted.

But his rushing volume and usage are still largely intact (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

  • 2022: 10.7 carries per game | 18% designed rush rate | 16% scramble rate
  • 2023: 9.5 carries per game | 17% designed rush rate | 9% scramble rate
  • 2024: 9.3 carries per game | 19% designed rush rate | 10% scramble rate

Fields hasn't suddenly morphed into a pocket-passing sloth, so at some point he's likely to have a big rushing day, and he has been solid enough as a thrower this year (career-high 6.8 AY/A) to have a shot at exploiting a positive matchup, which is what he has against the Colts, who are already without DT DeForest Buckner (ankle, IR) and CB Julius Brents (knee, IR), and this week they could also be without EDGE Kwity Paye (quadriceps) and CBs Kenny Moore (hip) and Dallis Flowers (leg).

The Dropback

Josh Allen (Bills +2.5, TT: 22) at Ravens: Allen is the consensus MVP frontrunner (+250, FanDuel), and he leads the league with 10.8 AY/A. As a road underdog he's 12-5-2 ATS (32.3% ROI) and 9-10 ML (47.0% ROI, per Action Network).

Jayden Daniels (Commanders +3.5, TT: 23.5) at Cardinals: Daniels leads all QBs with an 80.3% completion rate and 17% scramble rate. I am maximally invested with bets on Daniels to win OROY, to pass for over 3,025.5 yards, and to rush for over 525.5 yards. I don't count tickets before they're cashed, but those bets look good so far.

Caleb Williams (Bears -3, TT: 22) vs. Rams: Williams is yet to light the league on fire, but he flashed last week with 363 yards and 2 TDs (with 2 INTs), and he has a respectable 11-67-0 rushing on the year. The Rams are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+5.8).

Andy Dalton (Panthers +4.5, TT: 21.75) vs. Bengals: “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!” Dalton is the only player this year with 300 yards and 3 TDs passing.

For the rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 4, sorted by position, see below: