In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era:
The Bears have some gut-wrenching losses this season, but the one on Thanksgiving was coaching malpractice. After an awful first half, the Bears rallied from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit with a chance to tie or win it. Poor clock management resulted in one play in the final 32 seconds with a timeout remaining and the Lions won, 23-20. Bears coach Matt Eberflus didn’t see a problem with it.
The Giants started their third different quarterback in three games, but Drew Lock didn’t change things. The Cowboys defeated New York, 27-20, in the middle game for their first home win of the season. In the nightcap, the Packers defeated the Dolphins, 30-17. Here is the Friday FAQ.
Outside of the Bears poor clock management, was anything encouraging?
There were some positives to take away. After a poor first half, Caleb Williams had an excellent second half. He passed for 256 yards with three touchdowns and rushed for 39 yards. He has at least 33 rushing yards in three straight games and is getting the ball to his receivers. DJ Moore had 16 targets and caught eight passes for 97 yards with a touchdown. He has at least 13 points in PPR formats in the three games since Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator. Keenan Allen has benefitted with his two best games of the season over the last two games. He scored two touchdowns on five catches for 73 yards. For the Lions, David Montgomery had 24 touches for 124 yards, while Jahmyr Gibbs only had 11 touches for 104 yards. It’s a rare game where neither scored.
Have the Cowboys finally committed to Rico Dowdle?
It sure seems that way. Dowdle had 22 carries for 110 yards with a touchdown and caught three passes for 11 yards. It was his first rushing touchdown of the season and Dowdle has 47 touches over the last two games putting him in RB2 territory. He took advantage of a good matchup against the Giants. CeeDee Lamb was a disappointment with two catches for 39 yards and three dropped passes. He was on the sidelines in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury. For the Giants, Tyrone Tracy had nine carries for 32 yards with a score and caught two passes for 33 yards and Malik Nabers had 13 targets, catching eight for 69 yards. Drew Lock couldn’t unlock the offense. He went 21-for-32 for 178 yards, rushed for 57 yards with a score, threw an interception, and took six sacks.
Did Tua Tagovailoa change the narrative that he and the Dolphins can’t play in cold weather?
Once again, the Dolphins failed to get a win in the cold weather in Green Bay. The offense struggled most of the game. The explosive plays are lacking and Miami couldn’t convert in the red zone and committed 10 penalties. Tagovailoa had a solid fantasy game with 330 passing yards and two touchdowns. Jonnu Smith remains a must-start at tight end. He had 10 receptions for 113 yards on 12 targets. Tyreek Hill had good stats, but had one catch for two yards at the half and his touchdown came on a tipped pass. He had six catches for 83 yards. De’Von Achane only rushed for 14 yards on seven carries and added eight catches for 56 yards with a score. For Green Bay, Jordan Love passed for 274 yards with two touchdowns, Josh Jacobs had 117 total yards with a touchdown and Jayden Reed scored twice.
We have more football on the way. A Black Friday game, your regular Sunday fun. How about some …
WEEK 13 NFL GAME PROJECTIONS, ANYONE?!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Stat of the Day: Why DeVaughn Vele is worth a look
- Watercooler: A massive CFB preview, Week 13 sleepers, and more
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WOPR, WOPR, WOPR, WOPR (Not The Burger …)
STAT: A.J. Brown leads the league with an 87% WOPR
The Eagles have been an offensive juggernaut since returning from their Week 5 bye. They’re fourth in EPA per play over that time frame, and they’re third in yards per game for the season.
That said, the Eagles have done the vast majority of their damage on the ground. Jalen Hurts has barely had to throw the ball, and they’ve posted a -12% Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) over their past seven games.
Hurts has still managed to provide strong fantasy value thanks to his rushing ability, but it’s put a damper on the team’s pass-catchers. No team has averaged fewer pass attempts per game, and they’re merely 25th in passing yards per game.
Fortunately, Brown has managed to thrive despite all of this working against him. He’s done it by being an absolute alpha in the team’s passing attack. He’s commanded a 34% target share and 51% air yards share, good for a league-best mark in Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR).
No one is making more of their targets this season than Brown. He’s managed more than five catches in just two contests, yet he’s still the No. 8 receiver in terms of PPR points per game. That’s pretty incredible. He’s averaging a massive 18.6 yards per reception, and he’s managed four touchdowns in just eight games.
If the Eagles ever end up in a pass-heavy game script, Brown has an immense ceiling with this type of utilization. There’s a chance that comes to fruition this week vs. the Ravens. Baltimore has been far worse against the pass than the run, and they have arguably the best offense in football. Opponents need to throw the ball to keep up, and they have to do it for four quarters. Don’t be surprised if Brown posts his best performance of the year in Week 13.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
💰 There’s a Black Friday game today (Chiefs/Raiders)! Matt LaMarca has the best DFS plays, props, and bets.
🧠 If you love college football, Thor Nystrom’s Week 14 preview is for you.
🙃 If you have no idea what’s happening in college football this season, Thor Nystrom’s Week 14 preview is also for you.
🏈 There is still a lot of NFL football to be played this weekend. Check out Coach Gene and Laghezza’s Start/Sit to re-focus!
🎁 Fantasy Life has a fantastic 50% off Black Friday sale that would make a perfect gift for the fantasy player in your life. Use code: BF50 — Tell ‘em Ronis sent ya!
🕰️ Let’s go back to a simpler time (via The Athletic), when Matt Eberflus was a brilliant defensive coordinator.
