Recapping Thursday Night Football's Fireworks

by Adam Ronis

1 month ago

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:

It was a rare Thursday night game with more fantasy success than disappointment. Baker Mayfield threw 3 TDs and Kirk Cousins passed for a franchise-record 509 yards with 4 TDs to lead Atlanta to a 36-30 win in overtime over Tampa Bay. Cousins threw a 45-yard TD pass to KhaDarel Hodge to win it in overtime. On the previous play, Drake London, who had 12 catches for 154 yards with a touchdown, took a big hit and left the game and Hodge replaced him. Mike Evans had 5 catches for 62 yards with 2 TDs and scored his 100th career touchdown. Here is the Friday FAQ ...

1. Can we trust Kyle Pitts after his big game?

Just when the trust was gone and many benched Pitts, he had his best game of the season with 7 receptions for 88 yards. Pitts had 8 receptions for 105 yards on 15 targets through four games with no receptions last week, and almost reached that line Thursday. The Falcons offense played like we expected before the season and ran 81 plays compared to 51 for Tampa Bay. Considering the state of tight ends, Pitts is still a low-end TE1. Trusting any tight end this season has led to disappointment, but the Falcons offense is looking better.

2. What do we make of the Buccaneers’ backfield?

Rachaad White had a massive season last year due to volume and no competition. Rookie Bucky Irving is getting involved in the offense more each week and the split isn’t ideal for fantasy. Both are RB3s for now. White had 10 carries for 72 yards and 3 receptions for -6 yards and Irving had 9 carries for 42 yards and 2 receptions for 12 yards. Irving lost a fumble late in the fourth quarter, but he was on the field for the ensuing drive.

3. Is Darnell Mooney for real?

He’s clearly a favorite for Kirk Cousins. After 3 targets in Week 1, Mooney has at least 6 targets in four straight games and at least 8.6 PPR points in each one. While he did drop a crucial pass on third down late in the fourth quarter, Cousins trusts him. Mooney was targeted 16 times and recorded 9 receptions for 105 yards with 2 TDs. He’s a WR3.

4. The Falcons offense exploded. How big of a game did Bijan Robinson have?

It wasn’t all good. Robinson had 12 carries for 61 yards and recorded 3 receptions for 16 yards. Robinson has 1 TD in five games and Tyler Allgeier is still getting snaps. Allgeier had 6 carries for 12 yards and logged 3 receptions for 13 yards. The Falcons’ offense looked sharp and Robinson will be better going forward.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Ian’s Week 5 Manifesto: Which RB2s are actually outperforming their RB1s?
Watercooler: A QB-WR duo set to explode

10 Storylines to Follow in Week 5

By Ian Hartitz

And just like that: Week 5 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. What RB2s are drastically outperforming their team's RB1?

Deciphering whether a backup RB is actually better than the starter even when holding advantages in advanced metrics is tricky. On the one hand, they are indeed making more out of their opportunities behind the same offensive line. On the other, it makes sense that defenses devote fewer resources to defending the backup compared to the starter.

I attempted to account for some of this with a handful of Next-Gen Stats' handy-dandy metrics like rushing yards over expected and percentage of carries facing eight-plus defenders in the box. This will help show us which over-performing backup RBs might be truly making a case as the superior option, and which are perhaps simply benefiting from less defensive attention.

Starters:

Team	RB1	YPC	YPC Over Exp	8+ %
JAX	Travis Etienne	4.6	0.8	21.30%
CIN	Zack Moss	3.9	-0.5	33.30%
ATL	Bijan Robinson	4.1	-0.3	18.20%
TB	Rachaad White	2.8	-0.9	22.00%
PIT	Najee Harris	3.4	-0.8	16.20%
NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.1	0.5	27.70%
LV	Zamir White	3.1	-0.7	24.50%
NYJ	Breece Hall	3.1	-0.1	17.90%

Backups:

Team	RB2	YPC	YPC Over Exp	8+ %
JAX	Tank Bigsby	8.2	3.9	9.50%
CIN	Chase Brown	6.3	1.6	17.20%
ATL	Tyler Allgeier	6.1	0.9	3.70%
TB	Bucky Irving	5.8	0.3	11.40%
PIT	Cordarrelle Patterson	5.8	1.2	6.30%
NE	Antonio Gibson	5.3	1.9	24.10%
LV	Alexander Mattison	5.1	1.4	11.80%
NYJ	Braelon Allen	4.8	0.3	14.80%

Turns out in each and every instance the sampled RB2s have performed better in terms of yards per carry over expected, but did benefit from facing less-crowded boxes. This part of the equation is considered when calculating the initial yards over expected in the first place; just realize the raw yards per carry numbers are admittedly skewed.

That said: Several of these backup RBs deserve some love on the waiver wire and/or trade market due to their potential to keep on keeping on and accordingly earn more fantasy-friendly work moving forward. The likes of Chase Brown (rostered in 62% of Yahoo leagues), Bucky Irving (53%), and Braelon Allen (52%) probably aren't available in your league, while Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is banged up and only elevated as long as Jaylen Warren (hamstring) remains sidelined, but the remaining four options are quietly VERY solid bench stashes:

Tank Bigsby (available in 88% of Yahoo leagues): Joins Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker, and Tony Pollard as the only four RBs to reach a top speed of at least 20 MPH on multiple carries this season. Bigsby is slowly but surely eating into ETN's workload and is one injury away from instantly vaulting into the upside RB2 discussion—he's accordingly Dwain McFarland's favorite RB waiver wire target this week.
Antonio Gibson (available in 83% of Yahoo leagues): Fourth in rush yards over expected in the entire NFL and has averaged a gaudy 10.3 yards per target this season. Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled not once, not twice, not thrice, but four times this year; Gibson has the every-down skillset to work as a volume-based RB2 should the Patriots ever decide, or be forced via injury, to give him an extended look as the lead back.
Tyler Allgeier (available in 77% of Yahoo leagues): Actually out-touched Bijan Robinson in Week 4 despite Arthur Smith now residing in Pittsburgh. All Drake and Joshing around aside, Allgeier has always been a high-end handcuff and remains someone worth stashing on benches when possible thanks to his proven every-down skillset.
Alexander Mattison (available in 67% of Yahoo leagues): Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce said this week on Mattison: "He's deserved more reps. And he'll get 'em." The problem is that Zamir White doesn't figure to become a complete afterthought, and it's possible Ameer Abdullah and/or Dylan Laube complicate matters in an offense not exactly overflowing with fantasy-friendly scoring opportunities in the first place.

9 More Week 5 Storylines to Follow

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