It's Year 3 of the Rookie Super Model, and with the NFL Draft just around the corner, we are kicking things off with the highly lauded running back class of 2025. We will rank, tier, and provide a range of outcomes for the prospects.

If you are new to the Rookie Super Model, you can read everything you need to know in the introductory guide. If you are a returning Super Model lover, you can find all of the inputs and upgrades to the model in the same guide.

What Is The Running Back Rookie Super Model?

In summary, the Super Model calculates a rating between 50 and 100 for every prospect based on the data that has mattered the most to their future production in the NFL (i.e., fantasy points). The primary categories for running backs are draft capital, production, film, and athleticism. The model accounts for things like strength of schedule, teammates, and age/class to help normalize the data for a better 1:1 comparison.

This approach allows us to analyze historical ranges of outcomes for similarly graded players, which can be a massive advantage in fantasy football. To best use the model, don't get overly hung up on a player's exact grade—focus more on their tier and range of outcomes. That is how you can identify over- and underpriced assets!

Before we dive into the prospects, let's zoom out and assess the overall strength of this class. To do this, I have broken the prospects into three buckets:

  • Super Model Rating: 90 to 100 (elite prospects)
  • Super Model Rating: 80 to 89 (great prospects)
  • Super Model Rating: 70 to 79 (good prospects)

The edges of the rating ranges aren't absolutes, but you can see how often backs in those ranges have notched a top-6 to top-36 finish within their first three seasons in the table below.

 

So, let's see how many elite, great, and good prospects each class has produced since 2017.

  • 2017: 2, 1, 3 (6 total)
  • 2018: 1, 0, 7 (8)
  • 2019: 0, 0, 4 (4)
  • 2020: 0, 0, 8 (8)
  • 2021: 0, 2, 3 (5)
  • 2022: 0, 0, 4 (4)
  • 2023: 0, 2, 2 (4)
  • 2024: 0, 0, 2 (2)
  • 2025: 0, 1, 6 (7)

While this class doesn't reach the status of 2017 due to the three elite-great prospects in that class, it is one of the top three groups in the last nine years. It compares closely with 2018.

2025 is a great year to target rookie running backs in your drafts, but which ones should we prioritize? Below, we have slotted the backs into tiers based on their peers' historical hit rates. For example, Omarion Hampton is in the low-end RB1 tier because 62% of the backs with a Super Model rating in his range have accomplished that feat.

Let's dive in, y'all!

Tier 1: High-End RB1 Prospects

Ashton Jeanty | Boise State

 

Strengths

Ashton Jeanty is one of the most dominant college running backs ever. In 2024, he averaged 185 rushing yards per game, the highest mark in our database. His underlying stats prove his production wasn’t a fluke:

  • PFF Run Grade: 94.8 (100th percentile)
  • Yards After Contact: 4.8 per attempt (80th percentile)
  • Missed Tackles Forced: 0.38 per attempt (95th percentile)

Jeanty is also a substantial receiving threat. While not quite at the level of Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey, he is a plus option out of the backfield.

  • Best Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (RYPTPA): 1.88 (92nd percentile)
  • Best Target Share: 16%

Jeanty was an all-purpose machine, racking up 2.42 adjusted yards per team attempt (YPTA)—0.81 yards over expected (76th percentile). His career PFF composite grade of 84.5 (82nd percentile) ranks sixth-best since 2017.

NFL analyst Lance Zierlein considers Jeanty a "future All-Pro talent" and gave him a prospect grade of 7.15, the second-highest since 2014 (behind only Saquon Barkley). Our own Thor Nystrom comped Jeanty to one of the all-time greats in LaDainian Tomlinson and touted him as the best back to enter the draft since Barkley. That all adds up, considering Jeanty is the first back to receive a rating of 100 in the film department since Barkley!

Current mock drafts project Jeanty as a top-half first-round pick in the NFL Draft.

Weaknesses

The main knock on Jeanty is his level of competition. Boise State’s strength of schedule rating (67) ranks in the 34th percentile—one of the weakest among top running back prospects.

For comparison, the only first-round RB with a similar strength of schedule was Rashaad Penny (18th percentile). However, Jeanty’s adjusted stats still shine, with his 0.81 yards over expected (76th percentile) standing well above Penny’s 0.04 (45th percentile) in YPTA. His production holds up even when accounting for competition.

Jeanty didn't run the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, so he received a replacement time of  4.55 seconds. If he runs at his pro day, he will have a shot at improving his speed score and pushing his Super Model rating into the 90s.

Fantasy Outlook

Jeanty has the tools to be an instant-impact three-down back in the NFL. If he joins a team lacking strong receiving weapons, he could command a 14–16% target share while handling a heavy rushing workload.

Since 2017, only five other running backs have posted a Super Model rating of 85+, averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game over their first three seasons. All five posted a top-six finish.

In the non-draft-capital version of the model, Jeanty has the fourth-best rating ever (94), which provides some insulation should his draft capital fall slightly.

Bottom line: If there is such a thing as a can't-miss RB1 running back prospect, Jeanty is it, and early drafters are acting accordingly. Jeanty is an early round-two pick in bestball and the No. 1 overall selection in rookie drafts.

Tier 2: Low-End RB1 Prospects

Omarion Hampton | North Carolina

  • Super Model Rating: 77 (16th since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 35
  • Age: 22.5
  • Height: 6'0"
  • Weight: 221 lbs
  • Thor's Scouting Report

 

Strengths

When you are in the same class as one of the top-five running back prospects since 2017 like Jeanty, it can be challenging to stand out. While Hampton doesn't have any elite aspects to his profile, he grades out well in multiple areas, pushing his Super Model rating (77) to the 16th-best mark on record.

Hampton's all-time ranks and rank for the 2025 class:

  • Expected Draft Capital Rating (70): 15, 2
  • Production Rating (79): 22, 4
  • Film Rating (83): 30, 5
  • Speed Score Rating (86): 25, 3

Hampton has the size-speed combination that NFL teams love. He ran a 4.46 forty-yard dash at 221 pounds at the NFL Combine, registering a 72nd percentile Speed Score. 

The 22-year-old back isn't afraid to use that size-speed combo to punish would-be tacklers. Zierlein graded Hampton as the fourth-best back in the class with a grade of 6.33, calling him a "High-volume battering ram with a three-ingredient recipe of size, strength and aggression."

Weaknesses

Hampton has no glaring weaknesses, but he was only average to below average in the passing game.

  • Best RYPTPA: 0.98 (48th percentile)
  • PFF Career Receiving Grade: 67.3 (53rd percentile)

Hampton grades out in a range where he could handle a 10 to 12% target share in an offense without many high-end passing weapons. However, teams are unlikely to go out of their way to keep him involved if they have other options, which aligns with Thor's assessment of Hampton's niche skillset as a receiver.

Hampton's most significant risk is landing on a team with a great passing-down option or with a coach who loves to divide work between early-down and passing-down specialists. He can grow into a three-down option, but in those scenarios, he could be underwater early in his career.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB17, Pick 53
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB2, Pick 3

Since 2017, we have seen 13 backs grade between 75 and 80 in the Super Model, and over half of them have reached top-12 status within three seasons. Below is the full breakdown:

  • Top-six finishes: 23%
  • Top-12 finishes: 62%
  • Top-24 finishes: 77%
  • Top-36 finishes: 92%

Hampton's closest comps in the model:

The three-year Tar Heel has the 22nd-highest non-draft-capital rating (84) since 2017, giving his range of outcomes a buffer zone against lower-than-expected draft capital.

Bottom line: Hampton has a strong chance to provide immediate RB2 value while reaching low-end RB1 upside early in his career.

TreVeyon Henderson | Ohio State

  • Super Model Rating: 76 (19th since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 45
  • Rookie Age: 22.9
  • Height: 5'10"
  • Weight: 202 lbs
  • Thor's Scouting Report

 

Strengths

Similar to Hampton, there aren't any elite aspects to Henderson's profile, but he offers above average to good scores in all categories.

Henderson's all-time ranks and rank for the 2025 class:

  • Expected Draft Capital Rating (67): 24, 3
  • Production Rating (76): 44, 7
  • Film Rating (84): 22, 2
  • Speed Score Rating (80): 85, 15

Henderson erupted onto the national scene as a freshman with 2.08 adjusted yards per attempt (YPTA), making him one of only six players since 2017 to accomplish that feat.

The speedy Buckeye couldn't keep up that electric pace, battling injuries in years two and three, and battling transfer Quinshon Judkins for playing time as a senior. Still, Henderson posted substantial career numbers with a 1.80 YPTA—which was 0.46 over expected (62nd percentile) after adjusting for schedule.

While Henderson never posted a dominant workload in college, Zierlein believes he can play all three downs. Zierlein and Thor see Henderson as one of the best pass protectors in the class.

Thor notes that Henderson is an explosive playmaker willing to take on contact, which bodes well for accessing the field on early downs. Henderson's 17% explosive rush rate (carries of 10-plus yards) was three percentage points above the FBS average. 

Weaknesses

Henderson's ability to unlock the upside Zierlein sees in his receiving game is critical—he didn't demonstrate high-end ability in key receiving categories in college.

  • Best RYPTPA: 0.74 (36th percentile)
  • Best Target share: 8%
  • Career Targets Per Route Run (TPRR): 12%
  • PFF Career Receiving Grade: 70.1 (58th percentile)

Of course, he played with multiple first-round NFL wide receivers (i.e., Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison, Emeka Egbuka, and Jeremiah Smith), so we must recalibrate expectations.

While we have seen lighter backs take on solid workloads and produce fantasy goodness in recent years, most of them have been electric playmakers (i.e., Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane, and Bucky Irving), so Henderson must deliver in that department. That is his ticket to more playing time—especially on a staff that believes in load management based on size.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB20, Pick 64
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB3, Pick 4

While Henderson is stylistically different than Hampton, they offer a similar range of outcomes in the Super Model.

Henderson's closest Super Model comparisons are three other backs who played at high-quality programs, split time, and offered strong film grades as explosive playmakers.

Henderson's non-draft-capital model rating came in at 85 (21st since 2017), providing him with a similar cushion should he fall some in the draft. In the draft range where Henderson should go, approximately 10 picks equal one point in Super Model rating.

Bottom line: Henderson has a solid shot at securing an RB2 finish early in his career and offers RB1 upside on a team with an open-minded approach toward load management for a back his size.

Tier 3: RB2 Prospects

Quinshon Judkins | Ohio State

  • Super Model Rating: 73 (31st since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 65
  • Rookie Age: 21.9
  • Height: 6'0"
  • Weight: 221 lbs
  • Thor's Scouting Report

 

Strengths

Judkins has the ingredients to become a strong early-down producer early in his career. He registered an 89.2 PFF Run Grade for his career (82nd percentile) and boasts the size-speed duo that coaches love. The 221-pounder clocked a 4.48-second forty-yard dash at the NFL Combine, leading to a 69th-percentile speed score (109.7).

From a film perspective, Judkins graded evenly with Hampton (6.33) and ahead of Kaleb Johnson (6.16), as Zierlein's No. 5 running back.

Weaknesses

While Judkins' overall production was solid, his lack of a role in the passing game could be a problem for fantasy managers.

  • Best RYPTPA: 0.38 (18th percentile)
  • Best Target Share: 7%
  • Career PFF Receiving Grade: 64.1 (41st percentile)

Thor sees Judkins as a capable check-down and swing option with issues in pass pro. Historically, that combination hasn't led to many high-end passing-down roles at the next level.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB24, Pick 71
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB5, Pick 8

Eighteen running backs have received a Super Model rating between 71 and 76, and 56% delivered a top-24 finish in their first three seasons. Full hit-rate breakdown:

  • Top-six finishes: 11%
  • Top-12 finishes: 33%
  • Top-24 finishes: 56%
  • Top-36 finishes: 89%

If we further isolate on profiles with similar passing-game challenges, this group of comps emerges:

Bottom line: Judkins profiles as a borderline RB2 with a shot to push for high-end RB2 status as the lead early-down back in a potent offense.

Kaleb Johnson | Iowa

  • Super Model Rating: 72 (36th since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 55
  • Rookie Age: 22.1
  • Height: 6'1"
  • Weight: 224 lbs
  • Thor's Scouting Report

 

Strengths

Johnson had an electric final season as a junior, with a 2.69 adjusted YPTA (70th percentile), boosting his career production rating (76) into a range similar to Henderson and Hampton's. While he doesn't offer the top-end speed score rating teams are looking for, he has the size to handle a heavy workload.

Thor believes Johnson can immediately handle a heavy early-down workload for a zone-based run offense, where he can maximize his patience.

Weaknesses

While Johnson's film rating (76) isn't bad, it is well below the other top six backs in the Super Model. Zierlein has him graded as his seventh back (6.23), the bucket for an eventual average starter, but Johnson's composite career PFF Grade (combining run and receiving grades) is 71.2 (46th percentile).

This dynamic is interesting because Thor and much of the fantasy community are higher on Johnson's film.

Like many of the backs in this class, there are questions about Johnson's passing game profile.

  • Best RYPTPA: 0.78 (38th percentile)
  • Best Target Share: 11%
  • PFF Career Receiving Grade: 62.5 (44th percentile)

According to Zierlein and Thor, Johnson is a capable pass catcher, but problems in pass protection hurt his three-down value. Zierlein noted that he is "Unlikely to be trusted with third-down protection duties." Thor echoed those sentiments: "It's probably best to continue giving Johnson his breathers on downs where you want to keep your RB back to block."

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB22, Pick 68
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB4, Pick 6

Johnson's historical comps have offered the same hit rates as Judkins.

  • Top-six finishes: 11%
  • Top-12 finishes: 33%
  • Top-24 finishes: 56%
  • Top-36 finishes: 89%

However, the list has several question marks when further isolating his comps based on each rating category.

No other top-10 back in the model is more dependent on their draft capital coming through than Johnson. The non-draft-capital model ranks Johnson as the 60th best prospect since 2017, 24 spots below his Super Model rank with draft capital (36).

Bottom line: The Super Model rates Johnson lower than the market, but he still profiles as a low-end RB2 with a shot at RB1 upside in the right offense.

Tier 4: RB3 Prospects

Cameron Skattebo | Arizona State

  • Super Model Rating: 72 (39th since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 85
  • Rookie Age: 23.6
  • Height: 5'10
  • Weight: 219 lbs

 

Strengths

Skattebo boasts the second-highest production rating (86) in the class, thanks to stellar total yardage and receiving marks.

  • Career Adjusted YPTA Over Expected: 0.48 (63rd percentile)
  • Best RYPTPA: 1.52 (75th percentile)

While his expected draft capital is 20 to 30 spots behind the other players in Tier 3, his film rating (85) is favorable.

  • Lance Zierlein: 6.16 
  • Career Composite PFF Grade: 81.8 (75th percentile)

Weaknesses

Skattebo played one of the weaker schedules (30th percentile), spending two years at Sacramento and two at Arizona State, and he will be 23.6 when the 2025 season starts. He is the oldest running back prospect ranked inside the top 10 in the Super Model.

The model already accounts for those factors, but he is the type of prospect we could see slide down the draft board in April.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB37, Pick 118
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB6, Pick 17

While Skateboo offers a similar range of outcomes to the Tier 3 options based on his Super Model rating, there are also cautionary tales. Because the model is shaped around scoring fantasy points, it has overrated a couple of high-performing pass-catching backs who played easy schedules before:

White wasn't a complete bust, providing a usable season in 2023 before Irving arrived in 2024. Gainwell and McNichols have had staying power at the NFL level, but neither has lived up to their collegiate production ratings of 88 and 84, respectively.

Bottom line: Skattebo offers RB2 upside in a strong runout but should be treated like a boom-bust RB3 to RB4 option for now.

Dylan Sampson | Tennessee

  • Super Model Rating: 71 (43rd since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 80
  • Rookie Age: 21.0
  • Height: 5'8"
  • Weight: 200 lbs

 

Strengths

Sampson is the youngest back in the class and a projection pick based on a strong film rating. Zierlein has him graded as the third-best back in the class (6.38). Sampson's 79.4 PFF career composite grade (69th percentile) is the second-highest of the backs expected to go in the first 100 picks.

Zierlein cites Sampson's "feel for timing, spacing, and blocking" as his calling card, distinguishing him from other backs in the class. Despite his size, Sampson has short-yardage chops, per Zierlein. Sampson earned a lofty comp from Zierlein in Brian Westbrook.

Weaknesses

Sampson's production rating of 67 isn't ideal. Some of this is due to his sharing the backfield his first two seasons at Tennessee with 2024 fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright, but the model accounts for this. Furthermore, Sampson didn't light up the box score after taking on the lead role in his final year as a junior.

  • Career Adjusted YPTA Over Expected: -0.14 (38th percentile)
  • Best Adjusted YPTA: 1.82 (43rd percentile)
  • Best RYPTPA Season: 0.47 (23rd percentile)

Ideally, we would have a 40-yard dash time on record for a projection pick, but Sampson didn't run at the NFL Combine. Zierlein notes Sampson's "excellent burst and speed to run outside or hit chunk plays" in the scouting profile, but confirming that speed at Tennessee's pro day would be nice. If Sampson runs in the low 4.4s he will leapfrog Skattebo.

Sampson is only 200 pounds, so he might be considered a part-time player early in his career. Zierlein also points out areas for improvement in ball protection and pass blocking.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB44, Pick 149
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB9, Pick 21

Since 2017, 15 backs have received a grade between 69 and 73 in the Super Model. A little over half of those prospects delivered an RB3 or better season in their first three years. 

  • Top-six finishes: 13%
  • Top-12 finishes: 20%
  • Top-24 finishes: 40%
  • Top-36 finishes: 53%

Sampson is an intriguing prospect because it is difficult to find players with a strong film rating like his, combined with a lackluster production rating. Here are the players with a delta similar to Sampson's plus-19 rating points between film and production that went in rounds two and three of the NFL Draft.

This group shouldn't be considered comps—they all had higher production ratings than Sampson. However, it illustrates a wide range of outcomes on this type of prospect. It is hard to say how Sampson will fare, but he could overcome the gap between his production and film ratings.

Bottom line: Sampson is a borderline RB3 with a decent shot at hitting RB2 status and a sliver of hope for an RB1 outcome.

Bhayshul Tuten | Virginia Tech

  • Super Model Rating: 69 (50th since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 125
  • Rookie Age: 22.6
  • Height: 5'11"
  • Weight: 206 lbs

 

Strengths

The non-draft-capital model ranks Tuten as the RB6 in the class and has him as the RB28 since 2017, giving him a 22-spot advantage over the Super Model.

Tuten has the third-highest production rating (80) in the class, thanks to a 54th-percentile career-adjusted YPTA over expected (0.27) and a 52nd-percentile best RYPTPA (1.07). While neither of those numbers is astronomical, having solid scores in both categories has historically been a positive in the model. Tuten is one of the few backs in the class with demonstrated production in the passing game, he also notched a best target share season of 16%.

Zierlein's prospect grade of 6.26 on Tuten describes him as a back that "could become a starting-caliber back with three-down value." The scouting report went on to state running backs with Tuten's combination of “contact balance, power and home run speed put tremendous stress on defenses over four quarters.”

Tuten's speed score rating (93) supports the idea of home run speed. His 118.3 speed score has placed him in the 85th percentile since 2017.

Weaknesses

Three things are holding Tuten down in the Super Model.

  1. Expected Draft Capital (125): Tuten's stock is up after the combine but still projects 40 picks below the next closest back in the top-eight in the Super Model.
  2. Program Quality: Tuten played at North Carolina A&T for two seasons before transferring to Virginia Tech for two more, earning a program quality rating in the 34th percentile.
  3. Strength of Schedule: Tuten's schedule rating came in at the 30th percentile.

The final two points are already factored in, but his production score would be higher and with better marks in those categories.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB52, Pick 172
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB19, Pick 42

Despite the factors holding Tuten down, the Super Model likes him much more than the market. His high non-draft-capital rating bodes well for his future. If Tuten climbs into the third round, he could push as high as RB4, depending on the pick.

Of the 20 prospects with a Super Model rating between 68 and 72, 55% have produced a top-36 campaign in their first three seasons.

  • Top-six finishes: 5%
  • Top-12 finishes: 10%
  • Top-24 finishes: 40%
  • Top-36 finishes: 55%

Bottom line: Tuten is a borderline RB3 with RB2 upside and is one of the most mispriced prospects in early bestball and dynasty drafts.

Tier 5: RB4 Prospects

We will move quicker for the final tiers, focusing primarily on the historical range of outcomes based on the Super Model rating.

Since 2017, 40 running backs have notched a Super Model rating between 64 and 70, and 33% have delivered a top-36 finish in their first three seasons. Rarely have these players turned into top-12 options.

  • Top-six finishes: 2%
  • Top-12 finishes: 5%
  • Top-24 finishes: 21%
  • Top-36 finishes: 33%

All of the Tier 5 backs fall into this range.

DJ Giddens | Kansas State

  • Super Model Rating: 68 (59th since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 115
  • Rookie Age: 22.0
  • Height: 6'0"
  • Weight: 212 lbs

 

Summary

Giddens' production rating is on par with several top backs in the class, but his film rating is much lower. He had an outstanding NFL Combine, which could boost his draft capital rating.

  • Adjusted Career YPTA Over Expected: 0.33 (57th percentile)
  • Best RYPTA: 0.77 (37th percentile)
  • Lance Zierlein Grade: 5.94 (36th percentile)
  • PFF Career Composite Grade: 68.9 (40th percentile)
  • Speed Score: 110.1 (69th percentile)

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB55, Pick 183
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB15, Pick 39

Super Model Comps:

Trevor Etienne | Georgia

  • Super Model Rating: 68 (61st since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 135
  • Rookie Age: 22.1
  • Height: 5'9"
  • Weight: 198 lbs

Summary

Etienne gets credit for playing at a strong program (81st percentile) and facing intense competition, but his production rating still has questions. His solid film grade makes him a potential projection player at the next level.

  • Adjusted Career YPTA Over Expected: 0.00 (44th percentile)
  • Best RYPTA: 0.53 (26th percentile)
  • Lance Zierlein Grade: 6.15 (45th percentile)
  • PFF Career Composite Grade: 75.2 (57th percentile)
  • Speed Score: 103.8 (57th percentile)

According to his scouting report on NFL.com, he offers "legitimate three-down versatility" and could develop into a starter. 

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: Undrafted
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB10, Pick 31

Super Model Comps:

Devin Neal | Kansas

  • Super Model Rating: 68 (62nd since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 105
  • Rookie Age: 22.1
  • Height: 5'11"
  • Weight: 213 lbs

 

Summary

Neal isn't going to out-athlete anyone, but his solid production and film ratings point to a back that could produce if called upon.

  • Adjusted Career YPTA Over Expected: 0.53 (65th percentile)
  • Best RYPTA: 0.87 (42nd percentile)
  • Lance Zierlein Grade: 6.10 (43rd percentile)
  • PFF Career Composite Grade: 74.9 (56th percentile)
  • Speed Score: 96.8 (43rd percentile)

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB39, Pick 131
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB8, Pick 19

The Super Model is cooler on Neal than early dynasty and bestball drafters.

Super Model Comps:

R.J. Harvey | UCF

  • Super Model Rating: 67 (64th since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 135
  • Rookie Age: 24.6
  • Height: 5'8"
  • Weight: 205 lbs

 

Summary

Harvey will be 24.6 years old when the NFL season starts, making him the third-oldest back in the class. Still, he checks several boxes and could climb the ranks after an impressive showing at the NFL Combine.

  • Adjusted Career YPTA Over Expected: 0.47 (62nd percentile)
  • Best RYPTA: 0.85 (42nd percentile)
  • Lance Zierlein Grade: 5.96 (36th percentile)
  • PFF Career Composite Grade: 77.8 (64th percentile)
  • Speed Score: 109.7 (68th percentile)

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB53, Pick 176
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB11, Pick 34

Super Model Comps:

Ollie Gordon II | Oklahoma State

  • Super Model Rating: 67 (73rd since 2017)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 115
  • Rookie Age: 21.6
  • Height: 6'1"
  • Weight: 226 lbs

 

Summary

Gordon doesn't stand out in any particular aspect of his game, but he is solid enough across multiple categories to make Tier 5. Zierlein sees him as a potential Day 2 pick for a team looking to add an early-down banger in a committee.

  • Adjusted Career YPTA Over Expected: 0.04 (45th percentile)
  • Best RYPTA: 0.58 (28th percentile)
  • Lance Zierlein Grade: 6.15 (45th percentile)
  • PFF Career Composite Grade: 74.5 (55th percentile)
  • Speed Score: 100.1 (50th percentile)

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: RB50, Pick 166
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: RB7, Pick 17

Super Model Comps:

Tier 6: RB5 Prospects

As we enter Tier 6, the odds of hitting on a significant fantasy performer lessen, but some RB2s and RB3s emerge. Of the 58 backs to register a Super Model rating between 62 and 68, 21% went on to notch an RB2 season in their first three seasons.

  • Top-six finishes: 2%
  • Top-12 finishes: 5%
  • Top-24 finishes: 21%
  • Top-36 finishes: 33%

For the rating details on each prospect, check out the Super Model page.

  • Damien Martinez | Miami (66)
  • Raheim Sanders | South Carolina (66)
  • Brashard Smith | SMU (66)
  • Jordan James | Oregon (65)
  • LeQuint Allen Jr. | Syracuse (65)

Tier 7: RB5-6 Prospects

Since 2017, 63 running backs have a Super Model rating between 60 and 66.

  • Top-six finishes: 2%
  • Top-12 finishes: 8%
  • Top-24 finishes: 13%
  • Top-36 finishes: 19%

For the rating details on each prospect plus the remaining 2025 backs not listed, check out the Super Model page.

  • Donovan Edwards | Michigan (64)
  • Jarquez Hunter | Auburn (64)
  • Jaydon Blue | Texans (64)
  • Woody Marks | USC (63)
  • Tahj Brooks | Texas Tech (63)
  • Montrell Johnson | Florida (63)