Rookies to Fade in Fantasy Football 2024: Where my rankings differ from consensus
I’m not sure August gets enough credit. While it doesn’t include a federal holiday and often includes frequent reminders that summer is ending, it marks the start of NFL preseason and is riddled with roster and depth chart movement.
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The Hall of Fame game is Thursday night, the first of three preseason weekends begins next week, and 53-player rosters are due Aug. 27. From now until then, August will try to overprepare you for your fantasy football drafts but may also, unfortunately, provide an abundance of dissenting opinions. Luckily, the team at Fantasy Life is backed by a suite of analytics tools, advanced data and experts hand-picked by Matthew Berry to help provide clarity and leverage to those opinions.
As 2022's most accurate and second-most accurate ranker since 2021, I have a knack for organizing what August throws at me, but sometimes I find myself lower on players than consensus due to several reasons.
To celebrate August’s kickoff, here are four rookies I'm ranking lower than the consensus ranking of fellow Fantasy Life rankers Dwain, Ian and Freedman.
The Rookie QB
Caleb Williams (ADP: Round 9)
Them: QB13 | Me: QB18 (-6)
I’m with Ian when he distinguishes Caleb Williams as a quarterback who “offers the sort of uncoachable off-script ability that could make this suddenly loaded Bears offense a real-life and fantasy juggernaut,” and with Dwain when he recognizes Williams “has the weapons to challenge for 4,000-plus passing yards and could add another 350 to 450 yards on the ground.”
I’m with Kendall when she shares her excitement for Williams’ supporting cast of high-end receiving weapons, and with Pete when he acknowledges Bears OC Shane Waldron’s admiration of his quarterback is “encouraging for both the team and his fantasy prospects.”
Unfortunately, I’m unwilling to ride the 2022 Heisman Memorial Trophy recipient’s ranking train to fringe QB1 land. Not this year. Not in August.
Williams fits the mold of the highly sought-after dual-threat quarterback archetype and is someone capable of extending and making plays when he needs to.
He offers enough somethings to satiate NFL and fantasy football fans alike. Yet, I feel the public may be overvaluing his year-one impact, especially if the passing volume is low. The gushing coachspeak. The captivating practice clips. The fascination surrounding a new-look supporting cast headlined by D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift across social media should not be ignored, but it should be moderately consumed.
With no fault to Williams, it is challenging to assume any rookie quarterback will play well enough, consistently, to be an every-week fantasy start. This assumption becomes more challenging when realizing that, at a minimum, the RB1, WR2, and OC for that rookie’s team were with different organizations last season.
New Bears OC Shane Waldron is often recognized as a leader in Geno Smith’s 2022 Pro Bowl season, helping navigate Smith to top-five finishes in touchdown passes and passer rating with the support of 1,000-yard seasons from Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Therefore, it’s understanding why the public may expect the same for Williams with Moore and Allen. The key difference between those 2022 Seahawks and these 2024 Bears, without trying to compare the quarterbacks? The former worked several years together before that season.
It’s not easy asking the public to pump the brakes on Williams, but I’m passing on him in round 10. Instead, give me one of three QBs who are also surrounded by favorably stacked pass catchers — Trevor Lawrence in round 10, Jared Goff in round 11, or Justin Herbert in round 12.
The Rookie RB
Audric Estime (ADP: Round 16)
Them: RB62 | Me: RB78 (-16)
In true Broncos fashion, there are too many mouths to feed in the backfield, but that won’t stop the public from chasing the newest and youngest of the bunch. Fifth-round pick Audric Estime joins a backfield “headlined” by 2025 UFAs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine, along with 2023 UDFA Jaleel McLaughlin. Many believe the notion that only one of Williams and Perine will be with the team following roster cutdowns, which opens the door for Estime and McLaughlin to take command.
Will Williams’ 13.6 rush attempts per game or Perine’s 93% opportunity share in two-minute drills be vacated? Nobody knows yet, and that’s OK! It should be easy passing on a piece of the Broncos backfield, especially when there’s a three-way competition at QB between journeymen Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham, with first-round draft pick Bo Nix looming overhead. Additionally, Chris references how Estime’s history of struggling to earn starter opportunities and lack of experience in the passing game may limit him.
There are just too many question marks for me to buy into the what-ifs of Estime. And while there is value chasing upside, I see more value chasing the likes of Roschon Johnson or Dameon Pierce one round later.
The Rookie WR
Xavier Legette (ADP: Round 12)
Them: WR61 | Me: WR74 (-13)
I don’t dislike Xavier Legette. I dislike the fact that he was drafted by the Panthers and dislike that Bryce Young is throwing him the ball. Even more so, Legette is joined by target-hog and quarterback safety net Diontae Johnson, who garnered a target on nearly one out of every four routes ran in 13 games with Pittsburgh last season.
Additionally, Young ranked 23rd in play action attempts last season, which is something worth noting when trying to project opportunities that feed into Legette’s skillset.
The fact that the Panthers granted Legette first-round draft capital is reason enough for his ADP to be inflated, especially when others are similarly projecting how often the Panthers will need to throw the ball. In hindsight, the Panthers registered a Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) rate of -4% last season, a telltale sign that the team wasn’t confident in Young’s arm to win the game.
If I’m drafting a team that awards points per weather report, Legette is definitely on my radar, but otherwise, I’m passing on him in round 12 with hopes to land WRs Rashod Bateman in round 13 or Michael Wilson a round later.
The Rookie TE
Ja’Tavion Sanders (ADP: Round 18)
Them: TE25 | Me: TE20 (-5)
Repetition = Memorization. Panthers = Bad for Fantasy.
Drafting late-round TE isn’t for everyone, and I typically wouldn’t suggest wasting a bench spot on holding more than one. But if you’re forced to do so (or feeling froggy enough to chase upside in a depleted market), don’t target TEs sharing time with a capable three-down TE like Tommy Tremble.
Due to the scarcity of fantasy-relevant tight ends, one or more teams in your draft may be employing a similar strategy, so it’s important to lock in more useful late-round TE targets before they do.
My ideal late-round TE candidate is a round 16 Chigoziem Okonkwo.
