“You just had to be there, man.”

My college dorm was about an hour from my parents' place, so I often went home for something that wasn’t fast food and to have actual clean clothes. Invariably, I’d hear that phrase when I got back. My roommates would get involved in something benign, things would go sideways, and chaos would ensue. But, to add insult to injury, I’d only get pieces of the story. It was like listening to a Quentin Tarantino or Guy Ritchie movie, and each of them gave me a different angle of the same occurrence. And the end was always the same.

“You just had to be there, man.”

I’ve hinted at the idea that some of the stats we use have a similar sense of complexity. We (myself included) go through a lot of words to explain them, adding a technical flair along the way, but the core concept is simple. Coincidentally, in the case of routes, all the player has to do is just be there.

Routes: The Definition

“A route is the path a receiver takes to get open for a pass.”

Does it mean once they gain separation, they’ll get the ball thrown their way? Nope. Earning a target is a skill.

Is every route critical to fantasy scoring? Being proficient at a variety of them is useful, absolutely. But a good pass catcher can rack up air yards (and points) on a smaller set. I can use two WRs from my home state to illustrate my point.

If you ever want to win a bar bet, ask a crowd if they know who ran the most routes of any pass catcher in 2024.

To be clear, I have no idea why someone would wager any money on this bit of knowledge. Anyway, I’m guessing most would say Ja’Marr Chase. My man just won the Triple Crown! Or, trying to win on a technicality, somebody else might toss out Malik Nabers based on routes per game. The rookie secured 170 targets as a freshman. 

Solid answers, but incorrect. The owner of the most routes run resides in Cleveland.

On the bright side, at least Jerry Jeudy got a great cardio workout every week. Jeudy’s pace of 42.0 routes per game led the position. However, his situation rendered his wind sprints moot. It wasn’t until Jameis Winston took over that we could roster him without having to explain ourselves to friends. I realize the implication here is that routes and fantasy production hinge on elements of the passing game outside of the receiver’s control. And yet, we have examples of WRs transcending their environment.

OK, pitting Justin Jefferson and Jeudy against each other isn’t honorable. That’s fair. Nevertheless, you can see the difference in technique. Jefferson’s fluidity from snap to stem emphasizes how routes translate to targets. And while the two metrics appear to have a firm connection, a deeper understanding of routes will highlight how we can better use the measurement for fantasy purposes.

Why do Routes Matter?

Like my tales of FOMO from college, routes tell us who was part of the story during a game. However, it doesn’t necessarily mean our receiver was the main character. I’ll explain.

Even if I had been around one of the weekends when something wild happened around campus, I wouldn’t have been in the middle of the chaos. One, I was on an academic scholarship. Two, I weighed about a buck-sixty. I’d be safely minding my business (read: people-watching) in the background. All that to say, just being there doesn’t equate to action. Hence, we should expect a weaker connection between routes and fantasy points. 

Let’s do a quick recap: 

  • Air Yards: 0.89 (R2 value)
  • Targets: 0.73

Remember, the closer to 1.0, the more of a direct impact one variable has on the other. And yet, I’m not taking an R2 value of 0.41 to mean routes don’t matter. If Jerry Jeudy taught us anything, more running doesn’t always result in more yards. At least for him, a change at QB did the trick. But consider the Bears’ ancillary WRs. Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen averaged nearly the same number of routes per game (36.5 vs 36.1). And there was no doubt surrounding which we needed to roster (unless you’re Drew Dinkmeyer) because fantasy points require more than just being there.

The lesser correlation emphasizes why we celebrate route-running technicians. Without question, it looks cool. More importantly, the skill ensures separation from defenders. It makes a QB’s job simpler. Just the same, we do need our pass catchers to do some cardio on a weekly basis.

A better takeaway from a drop in R2 relative to the other metrics is that routes indicate involvement rather than intent. And by reframing the stat, we can reset how we interpret it. Go back to the clip of Jeudy running free in the end zone. Yes, it hurt Cleveland fans and Jeudy managers alike. It probably still does. Nevertheless, the larger concern would be if he wasn’t there at all. 

So, let’s look at routes differently. Play callers and their QBs want certain players involved in different concepts. Availability and skillsets are natural constraints, but each pass catcher is running a pattern for a reason. Sometimes, it’s to draw defensive attention. In other cases, they’re the main character. Regardless, continued participation denotes utility, and utility leads to opportunity. 

OK, so I got ahead of myself.

I assumed that since we could map targets and air yards directly to fantasy points, I could do the same with routes. But again, they’re measuring something different. The first two tell us which receiver was the most worthy of a pass. The last one signifies which ones are best suited to even be on the field. Routes are a building block to the stats we argue about on a week-to-week basis. But we can track a player’s participation and add it to the other metrics to make better decisions about our rosters.

How Can You Use Routes?

Unfortunately, routes won’t play a large role in finding value WRs during draft season. Opportunity (e.g., targets, air yards) drives the market as the average target rate cascades with each round. It’s the in-season trends that can land us a potential league winner.

I’m just going to tell you right now that following routes won’t guarantee you a receiver who will post the second-most points of any WR throughout the entire season. But let’s return to our reframing of what routes are. They measure involvement. Increased participation signals deference by the play-caller to keep a specific pass-catcher on the field. And looking at Jauan Jennings' routes in the weeks before his Week 3 outburst, the workload bump doesn’t seem like an accident.

 

Now, let’s add context. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle were out against the Rams. Christian McCaffrey was off to Germany. Ricky Pearsall was still rehabbing from his gunshot wound. This left Brock Purdy with Brandon Aiyuk (who was still getting up to speed after a hold-in throughout training camp), second-year WR Ronnie Bell, TE Eric Saubert, FB Kyle Juszczyk, and Jennings.

Sure, Jennings’s offseason extension pointed to him being the next man up. But if we compare his participation to his peers from the weeks before, the 49ers were telling us who to stash on our rosters.

  • Jennings (through Week 2): 50 (routes)
  • Juszczyk: 35
  • Saubert: 15
  • Bell: 11

Jennings’s on-field presence was the signal we needed. He and Purdy took care of the rest. So, yes, opportunity metrics have the strongest correlation to fantasy points. You can’t generate yards or score touchdowns without earning the ball. However, to get the ball in the first place, you at least have to be there.