Drafting sleeper RBs is a bit like playing Whac-A-Mole.

You try to hit on a player — in this metaphor, that’s one of the moles above ground –—but suddenly they’re gone. An injury or a scheme change results in less playing time. So we move on to the next guy. Our mallet waits in anticipation so we can strike first and get more points. 

But we picked the wrong spot. 

A backup rusher we thought would be “the” guy ends up being only “some” guy. The team we wanted exposure to doesn’t meet expectations. We’ve seen it happen before. Consequently, finding sleeper RBs feels more like an art than a science. However, using certain data, we can boost our chances of securing productive workloads from under-the-radar ball carriers.

Process

Classifying RBs can be challenging. We’ve got multiple archetypes we can target, from short-yardage grinders to pass-catching backs. As a result, I used full seasons to maximize the number of game samples. Accordingly, after looking at the last five seasons, I set point-total thresholds for rushers:

  • RB1: 274.4 total PPR points (17.7 PPR PPG)
  • RB2: 198.4 (13.6)
  • RB3: 155.9 (10.9)

Of course, we would all like our sleeper to be a top-12 asset. But for every Kyren Williams, there are about 10 Tank Bigsbys. The “more art than science” quip strikes again as the hit rates for late-round rushers aren’t all that compelling from an analytical approach.

  • RB1: 4.7%
  • RB2: 7.8%
  • RB3: 14.1%

For all the darts we’ve thrown at lesser-known ball carriers, only four have turned into RB1s in our five-year sample. Intuitively, and as the data suggests, our chances of finding valuable options increase as our expectations decrease. Regardless, there are a few commonalities between the players and their situations we can apply to our draft processes in 2024.

Establishing Archetypes

I’ll use three names from the 2023 season to set the stage for usage profiles:

All three finished among the top 24, but their routes to fantasy relevance couldn’t have been more different. Regardless, their workloads typified what we want out of our RBs: either pass-catchers or plenty of involvement around the goal line. Stated another way, how teams used them matters. And some situations matter more for RB scoring than others:

  • Two-Minute Touches: 0.39 (r-squared)
  • Targets: 0.25
  • Inside the 10-yard Line: 0.24
  • Early Downs: 0.14
  • Obvious Passing Downs: 0.11
  • Short-Yardage: 0.09

When you think about it, the general hierarchy makes sense. Securing touches near the goal line, earning targets and having a multi-down role is more conducive to scoring fantasy points. Not coincidentally, teams had similar thoughts when designing offenses around our favorite runners.

Fourteen late-round runners have accrued more than 155 PPR points (RB3 threshold) since 2019. Coincidentally, they had multiple roles within their offense. 

  • Eleven averaged 54.9% of their team’s early-down carries.
    • Average target shares for the remaining three: 12.5% (green zone), 13.2% (two-minute), 9.5% (obvious passing downs)
  • Only four had an average target share of less than 5.0%.
    • Yet all four garnered more than 50% of the carries from inside the 10-yard line. 
  • Just three had route rates under 10% on third or fourth down.

Interestingly enough, the number of players that came from top-10 offenses was limited to five. In other words, investing in “backups on good offenses” isn’t always the way to go. Instead, finding players who won’t leave the field in fantasy-friendly scenarios has proven more effective. And you may need to squint, but we’ve still got options in 2024.

2024 RB Sleepers for Fantasy Football

Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears

Despite logging only 561 scrimmage yards in his rookie season, Roschon Johnson ended 2023 on a high note, having wrested the RB1 job away from Khalil Herbert. The former Longhorn took 88% of the long-down-and-distance snaps while securing a 19% TPRR down the stretch. Combined with a 71% snap rate in two-minute situations, Johnson had evolved into a multi-down option. Even so, much has changed for the Bears franchise since the end of the regular season. 

The early additions of Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Gerald Everett during free agency and the draft put our focus on Chicago’s passing game. With DJ Moore already in place and Caleb Williams as the headliner, fantasy managers are clamoring for pieces of the Bears aerial attack. But new OC Shane Waldron’s seemingly pass-friendly ways haven’t always been prevalent when in scoring position in Seattle.

  • 2023: -6.6% red-zone pass rate over expectation
  • 2022: -1.0%
  • 2021: -0.3%

Sure, Chicago acquired D'Andre Swift. However, Swift doesn’t have the luxury of running behind Philadelphia’s offensive line. Plus, Johnson was the more efficient back in short-yardage situations, giving him an edge in goal-line scenarios. 

He’s like Kevin McCallister in “Home Alone.” With all of the happenings surrounding the Bears, we’ve forgotten Johnson is still in the house and capable of surprising us all in 2024.

Ty Johnson, Buffalo Bills

Ty Johnson will wind up being James Cook’s villain origin story.

Think about it. Cook gets Day 2 draft capital, proves the Bills can safely jettison Devin Singletary and Zack Moss — although that doesn’t look as savvy for Buffalo in hindsight — and prepares to enter the 2023 season as Josh Allen’s lone RB. But GM Brandon Beane adds Damien Harris and Latavius Murray to help out in short-yardage situations. Luckily, Harris and Murray are gone, but Cook’s lack of skill at plowing through defenders remains. Of the 41 RBs with more than 20 attempts with three or fewer yards to go, Cook ranked:

  • EPA per Rush: 23rd
  • Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 23rd
  • First Downs per Rush: 34th

Enter Ty Johnson.

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back Ty Johnson (26) rushes the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second half of the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Admittedly, the former Jet had fewer opportunities than Cook. Regardless, the 210-pound RB outperformed the 199-pound rusher. Even worse for Cook, Johnson earned looks from Allen. Simply put, Johnson has three-down potential.

Buffalo’s needs at premium positions will prevent them from significantly changing their backfield before Week 1. The RB2 spot is Johnson’s job to lose. And given Cook’s struggles in this area, we may see more of Johnson than we’d like at the start of the regular season.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants

I'll admit that sliding a rookie such as Tracy Jr. into this category is tricky. Sure, rookies are unknowns so they fit the description of a sleeper, but their "unknownness" makes clicking them less enticing.

However, at 5-foot-11 and 209 pounds, the former Boilermaker has the physical profile of a running back who can play right away. And he has the athleticism — he ran 4.48 40 at the NFL Combine — to produce if given the chance. Coincidentally, his collegiate profile also lends credence to this idea.

  • Early-Down Carry Rate: 31.4% (2nd)
  • Two-Minute Carry Rate: 38.4% (1st)
  • Red-Zone Carry Rate: 38.0% (2nd)
  • I5 Carry Rate: 47.4% (2nd)

Tracy Jr. forced a near-even split with fellow Purdue RB Devin Mockobee in 2023, and it was his first season playing the position, having moved there from WR. Even after switching positions, Tyrone had a 19.4% TPRR with more looks than his backfield competition.

In New York, Tracy Jr. has a clear path to earning a backup role in Year 1. Despite his fifth-round draft capital, Eric Gray, who the team drafted last year in the same round, could barely get on the field. His lone performance as the RB2 netted him 25 yards on 12 carries. Meanwhile, Tracy Jr. led Purdue in yards after contact per attempt (4.44), forced missed tackle rate (0.40) and caught 19 passes. If Devin Singletary falters, Tracy Jr. may be the next man up in New York.