Week 10. Double digits. Goodbye Daylight Savings Time.

With Week 9 come and gone, we have officially reached and are moving past the midway point of the season.

The memory of fall foliage is now nothing but a whisper in the wind. On the ground, countless light-brown leaves.

Someday, reality and fantasy will cross paths on a hiking trail. Which one will yield to the other?

No one knows.

This is the life we lead.

A Fantasy Life.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 10 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, the Steelers and 49ers are on bye.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 5, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 10 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Best RBs For Fantasy Football Week 10

Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Bengals

  • Ravens: -6
  • O/U: 53
  • TT: 29.5

Anytime TD for Derrick Henry has become one of my favorite weekly bets for the 2024 season.

One of my favorite offseason positions was Henry to lead the league in rushing TDs (+700, logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), and at this point it seems like only an injury can keep him from cashing that ticket. A true dominator and worthy -125 favorite for Offensive Player of the Year, Henry has an NFL-best 168 carries, 1,052 yards, and 11 TDs rushing, and 1,145 yards and 13 TDs from scrimmage.

Henry has a TD in every game this year, and I have him projected for 0.95 TDs this week. I think his odds of finding the end zone are -415.1, which comes out to an 80.6% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).

With 12 goal-line carries and six TDs inside the five-yard line, Henry is an elite scoring candidate every game.

Whenever the sportsbooks post Henry's TD odds for Week 10, I'll be paying attention.

Use our Fantasy Life Prop Finder to find the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet, and subscribe to our free Betting Life Newsletter for daily guidance, best bets, and more.

The Ravens have the week's highest implied point total (29.5), Henry is in a position to smash per usual as a big home favorite, and the Bengals are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (47.4%) and could be without DT B.J. Hill (ribs).

Najee Harris (Steelers) at Commanders

  • Steelers: +3
  • O/U: 45.5
  • TT: 21.25

Najee Harris should be fresh coming off the bye, and I expect the Steelers (No. 2 with a 52.7% rush rate under run-obsessed OC Arthur Smith) to rely on the ground game to control the ball and keep the explosive Commanders offense on the sideline.

And that means I expect Harris to see his customary full workload and maybe even a little bit extra.

There's the possibility that Harris as an underdog could be game-scripted out of the contest if the Steelers find themselves with a large deficit, but I'm not overly concerned with that possibility, given that HC Mike Tomlin and QB Russell Wilson have outperformed expectations throughout their careers when getting points.

  • Tomlin as Underdog: 61-35-4 ATS (23.3% ROI) | 51-49 ML (29.4% ROI)
  • Wilson as Underdog: 40-23-2 ATS (23.2% ROI) | 29-35-1 ML (15.5% ROI)

Especially with a smaller spread, this game will likely stay competitive throughout, allowing Harris to function in his usual capacity. 

Overall, Harris is an unexciting player with just 4.0 yards per carry and 4.9 yards per target in the NFL. But he also has a high floor: In each full season of his career, he has at least 1,200 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage, and this year he has had a minimum of 70 yards and 16 opportunities in every game.

And in Wilson's two starts with the Steelers, Harris has looked like the best version of himself with 233 yards and a TD on 40 carries and five targets.

The Commanders are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (0.016) and rush SR (44.8%).

Tyrone Tracy (Giants) vs. Panthers (in Germany)

  • Giants: -6
  • O/U: 41.5
  • TT: 23.75

In a 23-22 home victory, the Panthers last week allowed Alvin Kamara to pile up 215 yards on 29 carries and nine targets.

Again, that's what the Panthers gave up to an opposing back … in a one-point win in Carolina.

Now imagine how bad they might be this week as dogs of more than a field goal after crossing an ocean to play in another country?

The Panthers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (29.0) and largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+7.9). They exist to allow RBs to run all over them.

Enter Tracy.

In the absence of former starter Devin Singletary, Tracy seized the lead back role in Weeks 5-6 with 237 yards and a TD on 35 carries and eight targets, and even with the return of Singletary in Week 7 Tracy has maintained control of the backfield with a 65% snap rate, 59% rush rate, and 51% route rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Tracy's the No. 1 RB for the Giants, and he's playing the Panthers. I expect him to do what almost every other No. 1 RB in this situation has done.

The Checkdown

Kyren Williams (Rams -2.5, TT: 26.25) vs. Dolphins: Williams is a home favorite, and he has an NFL-high 13 goal-line carries. Just last week the Dolphins allowed a No. 2 RB finish to De'Von Achane with 121 yards and two TDs on 12 carries and eight targets. Projected at -3.4, the Rams are a five-star bet at -2.5 in our Fantasy Life Game Models.

Alvin Kamara (Saints +3.5, TT: 21.5) vs. Falcons: Kamara ranks No. 1 in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (9.5), and the Saints could feature him heavily without RBs Kendre Miller (hamstring, IR) and Jamaal Williams (groin) and WRs Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (knee, IR), and Bub Means (ankle, IR). Against the Falcons in Week 4 he had 119 yards and a TD on 19 carries and nine targets.

Kareem Hunt (Chiefs -8, TT: 24.75) vs. Broncos: Since becoming the starter in Week 5, Hunt has 380 yards and five TDs on 97 carries and five targets in four games. If the word "delicious" doesn't immediately enter your brain when you see those numbers, you're not the sicko you think you are. His matchup isn't easy … but matchup doesn't matter when a guy is favored at home by more than a TD.

J.K. Dobbins (Chargers -7.5, TT: 22.75) vs. Titans: Again, matchup doesn't matter when a guy is favored at home by more than a TD. Dobbins has 341 yards and four TDs on 70 carries and 14 targets since the Week 5 bye.

Chase Brown (Bengals +6, TT: 23.5) at Ravens: OK … matchup probably matters if a guy is a sizable road dog on short rest. The Ravens are No. 1 in defensive rush SR (30.1%). The matchup is as bad as it gets, and the circumstances aren't much better. But No. 2 RB Zack Moss (neck) is injured, and without him Brown had 157 yards and a TD on 27 carries and five targets last week. Brown is not throwing away his shot.

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)