Matthew Freedman highlights his favorite running backs to start in fantasy football in Week 14.

Well, it's here.

Week 14.

As Hamlet puts it: “If it be now, 'tis not to come; if it be not to come, it will be now; if it be not now, yet it will come. The readiness is all.”

I don't know what that means, but it sounds important.

The time is now. For most fantasy leagues, this is the final week of the regular season. For some fantasy managers, this is a commencement: The true beginning of the fantasy playoffs. Win and in. Lose and out.

For others, this is a conclusion: The end, no matter what.

And for a few borderline souls … a purgatory. At this point, your fate is out of your hands. You just have to wait and see what happens.

Regardless of your station entering this terminus, may the pigskin gods look upon you kindly.

No matter who you are, all of us can use a little mercy.

As of Tuesday morning, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 14 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, the Ravens. Commanders, Texans, Broncos, Colts, and Patriots are on bye.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 3, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 14 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Best RBs For Fantasy Football Week 14

De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Jets

  • Dolphins: -6.5
  • O/U: 45.5
  • TT: 26

This is my third time in four weeks to highlight De'Von Achane in this article, but the circumstances dictate I do so.

First, there's the matchup: The Jets are No. 27 in defensive rush EPA (-0.028). By reputation, they have a good defense—but they're exploitable.

The situational spot is good. Coming off their Thanksgiving game, the Dolphins have three extra days to rest and prepare, and they're at home, where they've had the league's best home-field advantage over the past three and five years. Plus, this is the third home game in four weeks for the Dolphins, so they aren't weary from the road.

With QB Tua Tagovailoa, they have historically outperformed expectations at Hard Rock Stadium.

  • Tagovailoa ATS at Home: 20-11 | 23.3% ROI | +3.55 Margin
  • Tagovailoa ML at Home: 23-8 | 19.1% ROI | +7.94 Margin

And the Dolphins have also dominated with Tagovailoa as favorites of at least six points.

  • Tagovailoa ATS as Big Favorite: 12-4 | 43.8% ROI | +7.06 Margin
  • Tagovailoa ML as Big Favorite: 15-1 | 14.9% ROI | +17.0 Margin

As big favorites, the Dolphins could load Achane up with 20-plus opportunities.

And with Tagovailoa, Achane has gotten the job done in almost every game this year.

  • Week 1: 100 yards, 1 TD | 10 carries, 7 targets
  • Week 2: 165 yards, 1 TD | 22 carries, 7 targets
  • Week 8: 147 yards, 1 TD | 10 carries, 8 targets
  • Week 9: 121 yards, 2 TDs | 12 carries, 8 targets
  • Week 10: 52 yards, 0 TDs | 12 carries, 5 targets
  • Week 11: 105 yards, 1 TD | 17 carries, 4 targets
  • Week 12: 56 yards, 2 TDs | 10 carries, 4 targets
  • Week 13: 70 yards, 1 TD | 7 carries, 9 targets

One of my favorite weekly bets this year has been Achane anytime TD. He has scored in all but one of his eight games with Tagovailoa and amassed nine TDs in the sample. And last week he twice got tackled at the one-yard line and then didn't score. (Sheesh.)

I've projected Achane with a 63.6% chance to score, which comes out to -175 (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).

I imagine I'll find myself betting on Achane to score a TD once again this week whenever the sportsbooks post his odds. Only Saquon Barkley has a higher TD projection than Achane (0.75).

Use our Fantasy Life Prop Finder to find the best odds available for almost any player-focused bet.

Chase Brown (Bengals) at Cowboys

  • Bengals: -5.5
  • O/U: 49.5
  • TT: 27.5

The Bengals are all but eliminated from postseason contention, but I still expect them to show up on Monday Night Football and put up points against the Cowboys, who are a tragic No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.086).

And that makes Chase Brown—as the lead back in one of the NFL's best offenses—an attractive option.

In his four games this year without No. 2 RB Zack Moss (neck, IR), Brown has been a full-blown workhorse.

  • Utilization: 83% snap rate | 92% rush share | 64% route rate
  • Production: 494 yards, 3 TDs | 74 carries, 26 targets

With 15-plus opportunities in every game since Week 9 (and 15-plus in all but one game since Week 4), Brown has an outstanding fantasy floor, and with his matchup, he has a soaring ceiling.

Tony Pollard (Titans) vs. Jaguars

  • Titans: -3.5
  • O/U: 39.5
  • TT: 21.5

No. 2 RB Tyjae Spears returned to action last week from a concussion, but even so, Tony Pollard maintained a strong hold on the Titans backfield with a 72% snap rate, 73% rush rate, and 56% route rate.

With that usage, Pollard had just 68 yards on eight carries and six targets, but that was also in a 42-19 road loss.

This week the Titans are favored at home, and in the team's three wins, Pollard has been heavily used.

  • Week 4 (at MIA): 108 yards, 1 TD | 22 carries, 2 targets
  • Week 9 (vs. NE): 154 yards, 0 TDs | 28 carries, 3 targets
  • Week 12 (at HOU): 129 yards, 1 TD | 24 carries, 5 targets  

Of course, two of those wins came without Spears, but Pollard still had over 100 yards and a TD on 24 opportunities with Spears in Week 4.

As favorites of more than a field goal, the Titans seem likely to funnel more of the offense than usual through the backfield, given that in their three wins, they've had their three most extreme games in terms of low dropback rate and negative DBOE.

  • Week 4 (at MIA): 37% dropback rate | -20% DBOE
  • Week 9 (vs. NE): 52% dropback rate | -6% DBOE
  • Week 12 (at HOU): 53% dropback rate | -7% DBOE  

With a positive game state, Pollard could see 20-plus opportunities against the Jaguars, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.8).

The Checkdown

  • Kyren Williams (Rams +4.5, TT: 22.25) vs. Bills: Williams had season-low marks last week with a 67% snap rate and 52% rush share as he saw rookie third-rounder Blake Corum earn more work, but he still had 113 yards and a TD on 15 carries and a target. He's still the guy, and he's No. 1 in the league with 16 goal-line carries. The Bills are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (21.6).
     
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers -7, TT: 26.5) vs. Raiders: Irving is a potential league winner. In two games since the Week 11 bye, he has enjoyed an expanded role with a 54% snap rate, 52% rush share, and 45% route rate (vs. his season averages of 44%, 45%, and 35%). With his amplified usage, he has 337 yards and two TDs on 37 carries and nine targets, and I expect him to have a heavy workload once again this week as a home favorite. The Buck stops here.
     
  • David Montgomery (Lions -3.5, TT: 27.5) vs. Packers: Montgomery played through a shoulder injury and questionable tag last week to earn 124 yards on 21 carries and three targets. With 27 total TDs in 29 games with the Lions (including playoffs), Montgomery is a scoring machine. Since joining the team last year, Montgomery has 308 yards and four TDs on 64 carries and six targets in three games against the Packers.
     
  • Najee Harris (Steelers -6.5, TT: 25.25) vs. Browns: Harris had his worst game of the year against the Browns just two weeks ago (54 yards, no TDs), but he has at least 16 opportunities in every game, he's now a sizable home favorite, and the Browns are on a one-day rest-and-prep deficit off Monday Night Football and playing their second straight road game and third in four weeks. With HC Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are a strong 82-66-4 ATS (8.1% ROI) and 105-45-1 ML (12.6% ROI) at home and 62-44-4 ATS (14.0% ROI) and 75-34-1 ML (18.3% ROI) in division.
     
  • Rico Dowdle (Cowboys +5.5, TT: 22) vs. Bengals: Since returning from his Week 8 gameday inactivation, Dowdle has functioned as the team's lead back, putting up 418 yards and two TDs on 75 carries and 20 targets in five games with a minimum of 15 opportunities in every week. The Bengals are No. 30 in defensive rush SR (45.4%).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)
  • Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)