Before we get into my favorite running backs for fantasy football Week 5, let's take a look back at some of the guys I liked in Week 4.

I'm just trying to set expectations appropriately low.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 5 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in weekly fantasy rankings and NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Rankings Accuracy: Last year I was No. 18 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. That was my sixth season with a top-20 finish.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, the Lions, Eagles, Chargers, and Titans are off.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 8:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 1, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

For the rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 5, sorted by position, see below:

Best RBs for Fantasy Football Week 5

Jordan Mason (49ers) vs. Cardinals

  • 49ers: -7.5
  • O/U: 49.5
  • TT: 28.5

In the words of Peter Bretter: “Wedding in Hawaii. Real original.”

At this point in the season, there's nothing original about saying that Mason is awesome. Through four games, he has 504 yards and three TDs from scrimmage while trailing only Alvin Kamara (100) with his 98 opportunities.

Even if starter Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) does return later this year—and there's no guarantee he will—Mason has already provided season-altering production as an injury fill-in for all his fantasy investors.

Even so, I still believe his talent is underappreciated. He's not just an average run-of-the-mill backup. For his career, he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per target, and in his month as the lead back for the 49ers he has displayed the ability to withstand a large weekly workload.

I'm not saying that he's a one-for-one McCaffrey replacement … but like the injured starter, Mason is a legitimate candidate each week to be the No. 1 overall player at the position.

And that's especially the case this week against the Cardinals, who are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (48.3%) and could be thin on the defensive line without DTs Justin Jones (triceps, IR) and Khyiris Tonga (knee).

The 49ers lead all NFL teams this week with their implied point total.

Najee Harris (Steelers) vs. Cowboys

  • Steelers: -2.5
  • O/U: 43
  • TT: 22.75

If you could see my face right now, you'd see the look of a man unexcited. There's nothing fun about the act of writing this blurb. I'm currently located nowhere near the neighborhood of sexiness.

Harris fails to inspire a goosebumped frenzy. For his career, he has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per target. Mediocrity would be a modest improvement.

And he's yet to score a TD this year.

But he also has a relatively high floor with at least 1,200 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage in each of the past three seasons, and this year he has at least 70 yards on 19 opportunities in every game.

With RBs Jaylen Warren (knee) and Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) dealing with injuries, Harris has a good chance to enjoy comparable production and usage this week as a home favorite against the Cowboys, who are No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (13.0%) and likely to be without starting EDGEs Micah Parsons (ankle) and DeMarcus Lawrence (foot).

Trey Sermon (Colts) at Jaguars

  • Colts: +3
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 21.5

Starter Jonathan Taylor (ankle) exited the fourth quarter last week with a mild sprain, but given his history and the high location of the injury, I tentatively project him right now to miss Week 5.

If I'm wrong, and if we see Taylor get in a full practice ahead of the weekend, then I'll feel fine about ranking him as a top-12 RB per usual.

But if he's out, then Sermon could be in line for a large workload, given that he's the only Colts RB this season besides Taylor to earn a carry and is clearly ahead of No. 3 RB Tyler Goodson on the depth chart (42 snaps vs. 12).

Sermon hasn't gotten a start since his rookie season, but last year he served as the lead back for the Colts in Week 15 against the Steelers after fill-in starter Zack Moss suffered an in-game injury, and Sermon acquitted himself well in his brief stint as a workhorse, turning 17 carries into 88 yards in a 30-13 home win.

I don't see why he couldn't have comparable success against the Jaguars, who are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.5) and could be without three defensive front-seven starters in EDGE Josh Hines-Allen (concussion) and LBs Foye Oluokun (foot, IR) and Devin Lloyd (knee).

At a minimum, Sermon is a priority add on waivers.

The Checkdown

  • Derrick Henry (Ravens -2.5, TT: 26.5) at Bengals: Through four games Henry has 525 yards and an NFL-high six TDs. The Bengals are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (49.1%) and could be without three defensive line starters in DTs Sheldon Rankins (hamstring) and B.J. Hill (hamstring) and EDGE Trey Hendrickson (neck).
     
  • Josh Jacobs (Packers -3.5, TT: 25.5) at Rams: Jacobs has seen his playing time decline over the past two weeks (56% snap rate), but he still has a minimum of 15 opportunities in every game this year, and the Rams are No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (8.3%).
     
  • Joe Mixon (Texans Pick'Em, TT: 23.5) vs. Bills: Mixon (ankle) has missed the past two games, but he got in a limited practice last week before being a questionable game-time decision, so I tentatively project him to play. The Bills are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (30.5) and without LBs Matt Milano (biceps, IR) and Terrel Bernard (pectoral).
     
  • D'Andre Swift (Bears -4, TT: 23) vs. Panthers: Swift finally went off last week with 165 yards and a TD from scrimmage against the Rams, and he has another advantageous matchup as a home favorite against the Panthers, who no longer have DT Derrick Brown (knee, IR) and could also be without DT Shy Tuttle (foot) and LBs Shaq Thompson (heel) and Josey Jewell (hamstring).
     
  • Kareem Hunt (Chiefs -5.5, TT: 24) vs. Saints: Hunt had 85 yards on 14 carries and three targets in his return to Kansas City, and he could have similar usage against the Saints, who could be without LBs Demario Davis (hamstring) and Willie Gay (hand).
     
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers +1.5, TT: 20.75) at Falcons: At a minimum, Irving—"Bucky" if ya nasty—has forced a timeshare with starter Rachaad White … but last week he almost matched White (13) with 12 opportunities, including three goal-line carries. This backfield will probably belong to Irving sooner rather than later, and the Falcons are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (49.2%).

More Fantasy Football Plays for Week 5

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)