Before we get into my favorite running backs for fantasy football Week 6, let's take a look back at some of the guys I liked in Week 5.

I'm just trying to set expectations appropriately low.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 6 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Rankings Accuracy: Last year I was No. 18 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. That was my sixth season with a top-20 finish. I'm still waiting on results from last week, but entering Week 5 I had a year-to-date No. 18 ranking.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, the Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, and Vikings are off.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 9:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 8, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

For the rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 6, sorted by position, see below:

Best RBs for Fantasy Football Week 6

Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Commanders

  • Ravens: -6.5
  • O/U: 52.5
  • TT: 29.5

Even at the grandfatherly age of 30 years, Henry is No. 1 in the league with 621 yards and seven TDs from scrimmage in his first season with the Ravens.

With a TD in every game and a league-high 10 carries inside the five-yard line, Henry has a high weekly floor—and with his 6.0 yards per carry and 19 rush attempts per game he has the efficiency and volume to hit the ceiling in any matchup.

Henry's a worthy +350 Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner—and he has a great matchup against the Commanders, who are No. 27 in defensive rush EPA (-0.010) and defensive rush SR (44.5%) and could be without EDGE Clelin Ferrell (knee).

As one of the week's few home favorites—and a big one at that—the Ravens could gift Henry with a world of carries.

David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Cowboys

  • Lions: -3.5
  • O/U: 53
  • TT: 28.25

I get that RB Jahmyr Gibbs is the more exciting player, but Montgomery might as well be his doppelganger.

  • Montgomery (4 games): 365 yards | 4 TDs
  • Gibbs (4 games): 361 yards | 4 TDs

(I thought about making a Nico-Velvet Underground-"I'll Be Your Mirror" joke right there, but I figured the editors might cut it on account of its being, you know, archaic.)

And it's not as if it's a coincidence that Montgomery and Gibbs are so evenly matched, given the degree to which the Lions have balanced their workloads (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

  • Montgomery: 50% rush rate | 55% goal-line carry rate | 8% target share
  • Gibbs: 44% rush rate | 45% goal-line carry rate | 11% target share

As good as Gibbs is, the underappreciated Montgomery might be just as good, and in a game with a week-high total, there could be enough overall opportunities for both Gibbs and Montgomery to go off, especially given their matchup.

The Cowboys are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.103), will definitely be without EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (foot, IR) on the defensive line, and could also be without EDGEs Micah Parsons (ankle) and Marshawn Kneeland (knee).

Montgomery should be rested off the Week 5 bye, and HC Dan Campbell is 17-6 ATS (40.9% ROI) and 13-9-1 ML (23.3% ROI) against teams with winning records.

The Lions 'bout to ride herd on 'dem boys.

Tank Bigsby (Jaguars) vs. Bears (in London)

  • Jaguars: +2.5
  • O/U: 44.5
  • TT: 21

If you see a mouse in your house once, that might be a random occurrence … but if you see it twice then (I'm sad to say) your home is no longer yours. It belongs to the mouse. That's just how the laws of occupancy and nature work.

Translation: Travis Ettiene might now be living in Bigsby's backfield.

Ever since Bigsby returned from his Week 2 shoulder injury, he has steadily assumed more control of the backfield.

  • Week 3: 10% snap rate | 13% rush rate | 10% route rate
  • Week 4: 30% snap rate | 32% rush rate | 14% route rate
  • Week 5: 40% snap rate | 57% rush rate | 24% route rate

Over the past two weeks, he has 83% of the team's goal-line carries, and last week Bigsby (129 yards, two TDs on 13 carries, one target) seemed to overtake Etienne (60 yards on six carries, seven targets).

At a minimum, Bigsby has forced a timeshare in Jacksonville and is a priority add on waivers.

Playing at their home away from home in London, the Jaguars might have a situational edge against the Bears, who are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (8.4%).

The Checkdown

  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions -3.5, TT: 28.25) at Cowboys: If I like David Montgomery, then I should probably like Gibbs. He's coming off the bye, and the Cowboys are No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (8.9%).
     
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons -6, TT: 26.75) at Panthers: "Mother, mother, tell your children that their time has just begun. I have suffered for my anger. There are wars that can't be won." The Panthers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (29.6) and No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+8.6). “We've gotta keep the faith.”
     
  • Breece Hall (Jets +2.5, TT: 19.25) vs. Bills: "Father, father, please believe me. I am laying down my guns. I am broken like an arrow. Forgive me, forgive your wayward son." The Bills are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (29.1) and No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+7.3). “We've gotta keep the faith.”
     
  • D'Andre Swift (Bears -2.5, TT: 23.5) vs. Jaguars (in London): After a disappointing Weeks 1-3 (114 scoreless yards), Swift has gone off over his past two games (285 yards, two TDs on 37 carries, nine targets), and he could've had a massive Week 5 if not for getting stopped at the one-yard line three times. (Sheesh.) The Jaguars are No. 5 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.8) and without top offball LB Foye Oluokun (foot, IR).
     
  • Najee Harris (Steelers -3, TT: 19.75) at Raiders: Harris is yet to fall into the endzone this year, and his career inefficiency is notable (3.9 yards per carry, 4.9 yards per target)--but he has at least 70 yards on 16 opportunities in every game. He could once again be without RBs Jaylen Warren (knee) and Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle), and the Raiders might not have DT Christian Wilkins (foot) and LB Divine Deablo (oblique).
     
  • Tyrone Tracy (Giants +3.5, TT: 22.5) at Bengals: Given that starter Devin Singletary (groin) missed last week with a doubtful designation, I tentatively project him to miss one more game, and in his absence last week the rookie Tracy flashed (130 yards on 18 carries, two targets). The Bengals are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (51.1%) and could be without DT Sheldon Rankins (hamstring).

More Fantasy Football Plays for Week 6

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)