In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:

No matter how bad your Monday was, I promise you it wasn't as bad as Sam Darnold's.

Like a vaporware meme coin after an influencer pump, Sam Darnold's free agency stock dumped to all-time lows vs. the Rams on MNF.

As every single person on the internet has already pointed out, he was seeing ghosts throughout the entirety of the Vikings embarrassing 27-9 loss to the Rams.

But we can discuss his free agency prospects another day. Today is all about setting the table for the Divisional Round.

Here is what we have to look forward to this weekend...

Texans +8 at Chiefs—Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET

This feels like a game in which Kansas City wins handily. Then again? I said the same thing about the Chargers vs. this same squad. Regardless, don't expect many points (o/u: 41.5).

Commanders +9 at Lions —Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET

Oh baby, now we are talking. This game has a juicy 55.5-point total. I'm not sure I have the stones to call for the upset, but I will absolutely take the Commanders with the points. Jayden Daniels is too good for that number. 

Rams at Eagles—Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET

Two of the most balanced teams in the league duking it out. A great penultimate game for the Divisional Round.

Ravens -1 at Bills—Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET

Let's be honest, this should probably be the Super Bowl. It doesn't get better than this. Can’t wait.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Lessons Learned: Where it went wrong.
  • Watercooler: Biggest Takeaways from Wild Card Weekend

Win Real Cash with Bleacher Nation Fantasy

Receive a no-sweat first entry up to $250!

Attention football fans! Want to win real cash playing a fantasy football game? Download the Bleacher Nation Fantasy app today and put your sports knowledge to the test. Dominate the competition and claim your share of real cash prizes. Use code: SWEATFREE for a risk-free entry up to $250. Download Bleacher Nation Fantasy from the app store now and don't miss out on this incredible offer!

DOWNLOAD THE APP TODAY!

Fantasy Football Lessons Learned: Where I Was Wrong In 2024

  • By Dwain McFarland

Every offseason, I spend an inordinate amount of time researching and tweaking my process, focusing on the data points that best predict future success. This process also includes knowing which data to ignore or not overfactor. 

The journey begins with a 30,000-foot overview of what I got right and wrong in the previous season. However, the key to this activity is thinking about the why. Is there something actionable we can use to improve or questions we should further investigate in the offseason?

We want a process that helps us get things right more often than not over time—always knowing that variance and luck (which we must also leverage and embrace) play a massive role in any one game, week, or season.

After breaking down what I got right last week, today, we will focus on what I got wrong based on the players I touted and drafted the most in 2024.

❌ Anthony Richardson | QB | Colts

Jayden Daniels was my top quarterback target, saving me from massive exposure to Richardson. However, this decision was more about his less-expensive price tag rather than knowing he would be a better fantasy performer than Richardson. Still, I touted the second-year signal caller as a primary name to target in my quarterback draft strategy, which was wrong.

My reasoning was straightforward: even if Richardson didn't improve as a passer, he was too good as a rusher to fail in fantasy football. Despite averaging just 212 yards passing in two healthy games as a rookie, he averaged 25.3 fantasy points thanks to 48 rushing yards and one rushing TD per game. He handled 26% of the team's designed attempts with an 8% scramble rate in those two games.

Since 2011, quarterbacks who handled 20% or more of their team's rushing attempts averaged 21.9 fantasy points with an average finish of QB5 overall. If you distilled that list down to guys who also threw for fewer than 210 yards per game, they still averaged 22.1 points.

When you add all that up, Richardson profiled as a near lock for 20-plus points per game. However, he finished the season averaging 16.9 in 10 healthy games. He hit rock bottom as a passer, completing only 48% of his attempts, averaging 174 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. Yikes!

Despite Richardson busting in 2024, we can't overreact. Ultimately, history remains on the side of dual-threat options—especially young players without a long track record of underperformance as a passer. If we were to follow that logic, we would have missed out on two massive breakout performers over the last five seasons.

  • Jalen Hurts: In 2020, Hurts posted a 52% completion rate, averaging 230 yards over the last four games as the new starter for the Eagles. The following year, he upped his completion percentage to 65% and notched a QB6 finish with 21.3 points per game.
     
  • Josh Allen: Allen completed only 57% of his passes as a rookie and followed that up with a 59% mark in his second season. Over those two seasons, he averaged 202 yards and 1.3 touchdowns through the air. Had you allowed his early-career struggles as a passer to push you off of him in fantasy, you would have missed out on his 2020 breakout campaign, where he averaged 25.6 points. Allen threw for 284 yards per game with a 73% completion rate.

Hurts and Allen are outlier turnarounds as passers. We shouldn't assume that every passer can make the leap—most won't. However, dual-threat quarterbacks remain the archetype we shouldn't give up on too soon because when we are right, the rewards are extreme.

👨‍🏫 Lesson for 2025

Avoid making a knee-jerk conclusion regarding the future trajectory of dual-threat quarterbacks after one lousy season—they remain high-upside bets worth making. We can approach Richardson with more pessimism in 2025 thanks to such an outlier/alarming completion rate in Year 2, but he still offers a 20-plus-point upside in most runouts and his ADP will fall. Continue leveraging average draft position (ADP) to target cost-effective dual-threat quarterbacks with unknowns as passers (e.g., Daniels over Richardson in 2024).

WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THESE TWO??

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

👀 Biggest takeaways from every Wild Card game … just how back are the Texans??

🔮 4 QBs, 4 ideal landing spots from Freedman.

🤔 Is Cooper Kupp on the wrong team? What a shame.

📚️ How to write a best seller. Hire AJB as a spokesperson.

🤠 The Cowboys are in the hunt for a new coach. Big move yesterday.