In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era:

If you are wondering how long you could last as an OC without your offense scoring a TD before getting canned, it would appear the answer is 23.

That’s exactly how many drives Shane Waldron’s offense had gone without scoring a TD before he was let go yesterday.

This might not fix the Bears offense, but it is a good start.

Still, the massively frustrating thing about this entire situation is that it never should have happened in the first place.

Everyone knew Waldron was not a good hire at the time. The Seahawks offense was completely uninspiring under him last year (which JSN tried to warn us about) and they still brought him in to shepherd their new franchise QB.

Why Matt Eberflus and Co. thought Waldron could somehow unlock a high-powered offense with one of the best WR trios in the league after not unlocking a high-powered offense with one of the best WR trios in the league last year completely boggles the mind.

It’s pretty clear that the issues go beyond Waldron—he’s the eighth member of Eberflus’ coaching staff to be fired or resigned in the past 14 months.

I have no idea if the Bears new OC, Thomas Brown, will be able to overcome the organizational dysfunction and fix both Caleb Williams and the offense, but it’s worth a shot.

I’m holding out hope that this can kick-start a big second half for Rome Odunze, but let’s see how things look vs. the Packers this week before getting bullish.

You can check out our early Week 11 ranks to see how our rankings crew is adjusting to the news.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Stat of the Day: Jauan Jennings has a WR1 target share
  • Watercooler: Unbeaten Chiefs about to get healthier

Interested in the full Fantasy Life Newsletter? Subscribe below to get it delivered directly to your inbox, every day!

11/13 Stat of the Day: Jauan Jennings 32% target share in Week 10

by Geoff Ulrich

He won’t face Tampa Bay every week, but the results from Jauan Jennings’ first week back suggest he may have low-end WR2 upside the rest of the season. Via our Utilization Report, he posted a 32% target share in Week 10, an elite mark which coincidently was still lower than the 40% target share he posted in Week 2, WITH Brandon Aiyuk still in the lineup. 

Week 3 vs Rams—40% target share 

Week 4—23%

Week 5—13%

Week 6—19%

Week 10—32%

Jennings has a 22% target share on the season, but with Aiyuk now out the rest of the way, it’s likely we see that number rise based on his usage in Week 10. He was a player you could still find kicking around on the waiver wire before last week’s slate of games in some leagues, but his asking price likely just went up. 

If you were lucky enough to get him he’ll still be a somewhat matchup-dependant start—given the 49ers will likely be running more with Christian McCaffrey back. However, for Week 11 the green light is still on for Jennings against a Seattle secondary that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season.

🧢 New Era's Salute to Service Collection

The Official Cap of the NFL!

Show your support for those who serve with the Official Cap of Salute to Service from New Era Cap. This collection showcases headwear that combines a Snow Camo crown with graphite-accented team logos for a sleek and sophisticated look. Perfect for the fantasy football season, these caps let you express your team pride while simultaneously paying tribute to those who protect us. Get your own Official Cap of the NFL from New Era today.

The NFL and New Era are dedicated to honoring our nation’s heroes through contributions to the NFL’s Salute to Service charity partners—learn more at NFL.com/Salute.

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

🧐 Ian and Dwain break down Utilization Report data and identify trade targets.

🍋 Ian runs down plenty of Sheesh from Week 10.

📈 The Chiefs are getting back a key weapon. Time to sell Kareem Hunt?

🚑️ Our worst Dak fears are confirmed. Ugh.

🐬 Don’t click this if you are a Tyreek manager. Oof.

🕺 The best TD celebration ever? I missed this on Sunday, incredible.

 

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 11

Here are a couple of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 11. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.

Russell Wilson (Steelers) vs. Ravens

Steelers: +3

O/U: 48.5

TT: 22.75

This is the most classic of spots for the Steelers to exceed expectations under HC Mike Tomlin, who has dominated at home, in division, and as an underdog … and his team has been exceptional whenever those three situations have aligned.

Tomlin at Home: 81-66-4 ATS (7.5% ROI) | 104-45-1 ML (11.7% ROI)

Tomlin in Division: 60-43-4 ATS (13.5% ROI) | 73-33-1 ML (17.1% ROI)

Tomlin as Underdog: 62-35-4 ATS (24.0% ROI) | 52-49 ML (30.2% ROI)

Tomlin Total Eclipse: 8-1-2 ATS (57.0% ROI) | 7-4 ML (45.6% ROI)

As it happens, Russell Wilson throughout his career has also been strong at home and as a dog. As both, he has been tastier than a Dangerwich.

Wilson at Home: 52-45-3 ATS (4.0% ROI) | 71-29 ML (7.3% ROI)

Wilson as Underdog: 41-23-2 ATS (24.3% ROI) | 30-35-1 ML (16.8% ROI)

Wilson as Home Dog: 11-3 ATS (52.7% ROI) | 9-5 ML (62.8% ROI)

Wilson has played just three games this year, so the sample is small, but of all QBs with at least 100 plays he's No. 6 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148, per RBs Don't Matter). His 9.6 AY/A is almost destined to regress, but right now in the category he's No. 2 overall.

In every start with the Steelers, Wilson has at least 275 yards or multiple TDs passing. He's no longer the runner he once was (10-13-1 rushing), but he still has exhibited a solid floor this season—and his matchup this week gives him a significant ceiling, as the Ravens are No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.7).

Audric Estime (Broncos) vs. Falcons

Broncos: -2.5

O/U: 44

TT: 23.25

Last week was the best one yet of Audric Estime's young career, as the 21-year-old rookie hit personal highs with a 45% snap rate, 64% carry share, and 21% route rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report). He leveraged this usage into only 53 scoreless yards, but all indications are that he's now the backfield leader as the team's primary early-down and short-yardage between-the-tackles grinder.

When the Broncos fall behind, Estime is at risk of being scripted out of the offense. For the season, he has zero targets on 11 routes. 

But this week the Broncos as home favorites should have enough neutral and leading game scripts to provide Estime with a reasonable chance to have double-digit opportunities for the second week in a row.

The Falcons are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (45.2%), EDGE Lorenzo Carter (concussion, IR) and DT Ruke Orhorhoro (ankle, IR) are out, and DT Ta'Quon Graham (pectoral) might miss Week 11.

Where available, Estime should be a waiver priority.

More of Freedman’s Favorite QBs for Week 11

MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES:

 

Ian’s Week 11 Manifesto

By Ian Hartitz

And just like that: Week 11 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Is the tight end position suddenly fixed?

Maybe National TE Day really did just send a shockwave to the position, but yes: TEs are largely balling out more than ever after a slow start to the season.

League-wide TE PPR points per game by week:

Week 1: 8.2

Week 2: 9.2

Week 3: 10.3

Week 4: 9.2

Week 5: 14.4

Week 6: 12

Week 7: 13.4

Week 8 (National TE Day): 15.8

Week 9: 12.3

Week 10: 11.6

Each of the first four weeks represents the four lowest marks of the season for the position, as things have improved in a major way across the board for the better part of the last month and a half. Part of this can be chalked up to offenses as a whole generally getting better, but there have also been some key depth chart changes that have really opened things up for certain players in recent weeks.

Shoutout to guys like George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Cade Otton, among others, for putting forward some big-time performances, while it wouldn't be surprising to see Trey McBride (league-high 65 targets without a TD!) experience some positive regression following the Cardinals' Week 11 bye.

Obviously, it'd be a lot cooler if your fantasy squad is already blessed with one of those ballers, but consider the following options if not—these guys are available in over 50% of ESPN leagues at the moment:

Saints TE Taysom Hill (35% rostered): Has posted back-to-back season-high marks in route rate (47%, 63%) during the last two weeks in addition to his typical wonky role in the run game. With 8, 10, and 6 combined carries and targets in his last three games, Hill can score TDs in multiple facets of the game during any given week. He's a top-10 TE in our Week 11 Fantasy Life Rankings and figures to remain in that low-end TE1 conversation the rest of the way inside this incredibly banged-up Saints offense.

Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith (25.9% rostered): Has put together solid enough 7-96-1, 4-20-0, 5-46-0, and 3-45-0 receiving lines since the Dolphins returned from their Week 6 bye. The latter stat line would have been much higher had Smith gained one extra yard on his season-long 33-yard catch-and-run that left him just short of the goal line (sheesh). This isn't exactly a new fad: Smith is tied with Jaylen Waddle in targets (44) and trails only the Dolphins’ WR2 by 0.7 total PPR points. There are worse TE darts to throw than at a gifted YAC-specimen working as a top-4 pass-game option inside one of the league's more lethal aerial attacks when things are clicking. 

Giants TE Theo Johnson (2.8% rostered): The rookie TE has posted a route rate north of 75% in every game since Week 5. While this has yielded only one top-12 finish, the potential for Drew Lock to replace Daniel Jones down the stretch could help produce better results inside a passing game that admittedly can't get much worse. There's always been a lot to like about Johnson's athletic profile; don't be surprised if he provides at least another boom or two ahead of a cozy end-of-season stretch against the Bucs (29th in EPA allowed per dropback), Cowboys (27th), Saints (9th), Ravens (30th), Falcons (23rd), and Colts (17th).

Let's make like Stanley Yelnats and keep digging deep on that waiver wire!

Trends, Bold Predictions, and More For Week 11