The following analysis is from the July 16th edition of the Fantasy Life Newsletter.
There are “best shape of their life” posts and then there is Nick Chubb.
In a video that circulated yesterday, the Browns RB was seen squatting 540+ pounds and making a steel barbell look like an al dente noodle…
Of course, what makes this truly impressive is that Chubb is tossing this kind of weight around just eight months after undergoing multiple significant knee surgeries.
The video marks the second bullish piece of rehab footage we’ve seen in the past month and encourages a very reasonable question…
Is Nick Chubb too cheap in drafts right now??
Yesterday, we spotlighted rookie WR Keon Coleman, who is much cheaper on ESPN and Yahoo than on Underdog. Chubb is the inverse, though:
Even if Chubb misses the first chunk of the season, our teams can likely survive at these prices (specifically on Underdog). And no one needs to be sold on the late-season upside of a healthy Chubb.
The key to making it work in both redraft and best ball is rounding out your RB room accordingly. If you have a few early RBs, Chubb is the perfect luxury RB4 or RB5. If you go Zero RB, though, you’ll need to prioritize some other backs with him who offer early-season production. Either of his backfield mates—Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman—or another cheap starting RB like Chuba Hubbard—could provide the perfect stopgap.
Regardless, it’s time to start taking Chubb seriously as a late-season impact player.
What is in today’s newsletter?
- Thor Nystrom’s Dynasty WR targets
- Introducing FantasyLife+
- Watercooler: Are two bye weeks on the horizon?!
Rookie Sleepers To Target In Dynasty
by Thor Nystrom
🏅 Day 2: Luke McCaffrey (Rice) - Commanders
> 6015/198 | RAS: 9.44 | Player comparison: Josh Reynolds
My favorite draft sleeper at the receiver position all spring, not surprisingly, also makes my favorite fantasy rookie sleepers list. Not only did McCaffrey get Day 2 draft capital (he was the last pick in Round 3), but he finds himself in an ideal situation.
A former four-star dual-threat quarterback, McCaffrey was a bust behind center. But he found his calling after switching positions at Rice, dropping a 131-1732-19 line over two seasons. McCaffrey was a base big-slot in college who moonlighted on the boundary (70/30 snap split).
I believe he could play either inside or outside at the next level. Keep in mind that McCaffrey has only been playing the receiver position for two years – he’s both an ascending talent, and a moldable ball of clay.
With the Commanders, McCaffrey is a lock to play in three-WR sets, and I also think he could push Jahan Dotson for the WR2 role. If McCaffrey wins that, it means he stays on the field when Washington goes to 12-personnel to get TE Ben Sinnott on the field.
Here’s why I love his fit in Washington’s offense so much: His best attribute, winning downfield, perfectly jives with QB Jayden Daniels’ long-ball game (including to slot receivers: Malik Nabers was sent on a metric ton of slot fades last year).
McCaffrey has great hands and even better concentration, regularly reeling in the ball in congested quarters. He was a superb 17-for-28 in contested situations last year, and had only three drops on 120 targets in 2023.
OC Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid puts the ball in the air plenty while baking in high-percentage looks for slots in particular. An example of this is in the RPO game, where the quarterback is to hand if the linebackers are hanging back, but pull it and throw a slant to the slot if the middle of the field has been vacated.
Kingsbury could also have great fun using the former dual-threat quarterback on trick plays. Rice manufactured touches for McCaffrey on end-arounds. McCaffrey ended up breaking 25 broken tackles in two years with zero fumbles.
🏅 Day 3: Javon Baker (Central Florida) - Patriots
> 6012/202 | RAS: 7.84 | Player comparison: Rashee Rice
A former five-star recruit who realized his potential after transferring from Alabama to UCF, Baker plays with unmistakable attitude and emotion. When Baker is involved, he has an infectious barking-dog energy on the field. When things aren’t going his way, or concepts are called to the other side of the field, you notice instances of half-hearted “routes.”
Baker is not explosive off the line – he’s a build-up speed guy – but he releases clean with a matrix of footwork and gets to work. He isn’t the most agile, but his routes are better than adequate.
He understands leverage and tempo, and he quickly throttles into and out of route breaks. Baker is a YAC threat due to his combination of play strength and contact balance. I love his ability to spear balls on the move without losing momentum.
Baker was a downfield assassin at UCF, with a 17.1 aDOT. He attacks the ball in the air and latches on, undeterred by contact. He does a decent job stacking, though Baker’s lack of elite wheels can lead to company at the catch point. Fortunately, he was 20-for-36 in contested catch scenarios the past two years.
Baker needs to clean up his concentration drops, dropping over 10% of his catchable targets the past two seasons. That speaks to engagement, and that’s what Baker’s boom-or-bust profile will come down to.
If Baker is locked in, he could ascend to the top of New England’s rancid WR pecking order very quickly. That could lead to a fantasy goldmine: Drake Maye loves throwing deep. But if things go the other way, Baker might not see a second NFL contract.
These are the type of guys I love getting later in dynasty drafts. Use those picks to swing for the fences. Move on quickly if your asset doesn’t boom. My experience has been that owners toss late-round picks indiscriminately into trades they want to consummate. In this way, you can pile them up year-over-year to shoot the moon on new prospects taking the place of those who’ve either moved into your starting lineup or been purged.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🤔 Is this second-year QB too expensive in draft rooms? Ian and Dwain weigh in.
👀 Last year’s PPR RB7 is looking to repeat in 2024. Buying or selling?
🤩 Andy Reid on Kelce and Swift. You know you want to hear this…
✍️ Is an 18-game season coming soon? The latest from Adam Schefter.
🤝 Fantasy Life & Rotoworld…two great tastes that go great together.
📝 What the new NFL kickoff rules mean for 2024. Some interesting ramifications here.
🌹 Calvin Johnson gets his flowers. Well deserved.
