In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era:
Welcome to Week 8, where we have a 13-game Main Slate, a fun SNF tilt, and a treasure trove of intriguing storylines.
There’s the return of Tua Tagovailoa, who has vaulted the key Dolphins skill position players back into fantasy relevance.
There’s the “Kermit Narrative” at play. Is this the game where Patrick Mahomes finally goes nuclear while finally “handling” the Raiders smack talk?
And there’s even one ripped straight from a Disney movie with two identical twins facing off against each other.
But as always, there are some tricky situations to navigate as well …
There are a few critical game-time decisions we’ll need to pay close attention to:
*Jayden Daniels: It’ll be a “collaborative" decision” on whether Daniels goes today with his rib injury. If Daniels is active, you play him. It’s as simple as that. If not, I’d look to stream someone like Bo Nix or Jameis Winston. You can check our ranks for other ideas.
*Tee Higgins: Tee popped up on the injury report late this week with a quad injury. Considering he has a history of “decoy” status when playing through injury, I’d prefer to avoid this situation. Andre Iosivas is a sneaky start today.
*Zay Flowers: There’s mixed reporting on this one, but Schefter says he’s expected to play. I’m starting him if he’s active.
Other quick hitters: DK Metcalf and Travis Etienne are unlikely to play and Tyjae Spears has been ruled out. Seattle WR Jake Bobo is another good desperation flier at WR if you need it.
For more NFL news, and Week 8 DFS advice, keep on reading …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- James McCool’s Week 8 DFS Advice: His top stack, values, and GPP gem
- Watercooler: A running back to stash before SNF
Stacks, Values, and More For Week 8
by James McCool
Week 8 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 8 DraftKings NFL DFS plays, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources.
Top Stack — Cincinnati Bengals
Things are well-clustered toward the top this week. We have a nice spread of a couple of high-octane teams and Miami making an appearance among the top teams to stack with Tua back from injury. With that said, it feels pretty easy to lay your hat on the Bengals this week.
They have a strong implied team total at 25.75 points along with a median expectation of 51.89, and the highest ceiling for any QB+2 at 90.81. Likewise, their top finish rate is the highest on the slate at 11.70% which is sure to be higher than their combined ownership in GPPs. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have one of the highest duo-oriented market shares in the league, combining for 53% of the targets and nearly 70% of the air yards.
All of this in a game that should be close and high-scoring against a quality opponent makes the Bengals a strong place to start your builds.
Value Plays
RB: De’Von Achane
There is going to be a lot of speculation with the Dolphins this week as Tua returns from injury. They have looked like an abject disaster without him, and there are a lot of assumptions that they will get right back on track with his return. Achane is at what we should consider the floor of his price range and should have considerable benefit.
In 2023, Achane averaged 16.6 PPR points per game (12-game sample) and that was on relatively lackluster usage as evidenced by his Utilization Score of 6.3. His utilization has ramped up this year (currently at 7.2) and that was in a bad offense, so we should expect him to improve. Even if he only gets back to that 16 PPR per game average, he is too cheap at $6,200. He will be popular, but he’s a great play.
WR: Cedric Tillman
The projections for Tillman are relatively low, but that doesn’t matter when he is min-priced. His Median/Ceiling combination is 8.79/19.00, which gives him a 4x rate of 17.50% in the Paydirt simulations. In the first game with no Amari Cooper, he ended up with a Utilization Score of 8.2 on the back of 24% of the targets, 34% of the air yards, and 33% of the endzone targets for the team.
He is also in line to get a boost from a QB change, as Jameis Winston has a considerably higher ceiling in terms of passing upside than Watson did. He’s a cash game staple this week and a great play in GPPs assuming his ownership stays low.
GPP Gem
RB: Kenneth Walker III
There are a lot of reasons to love Walker this week. First off, he has one of the best roles in the league. He only holds 43% of the total rushing attempts, but his 14% target share and 80% of the inside the five rushing attempts trump any drop in his volume there. He is averaging 22.3 PPR points per game, and while that is boosted by touchdown upside, his equity there is very strong.
On top of this awesome role, you get a matchup with the Bills, who are giving up the second-most fantasy points to RBs and the fourth-most PPR points above average. It’s a smash spot if you have the money to afford Walker this week.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
📊 Projections for every player on the Sunday slate … great tool to help with lineup decisions.
✍️ Injuries have made Week 8 a bit trickier. Your start-sit recommendations.
👀 The Sunday Morning Q&A is a must-see starting at 9 a.m. ET.
📓 Behind the Panthers QB switch. Rooting for him.
👀 A RB worth stashing if you are desperate. He could do a Kareem Hunt impression.
