In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog:
We’re getting down to the nitty-gritty.
Trade deadlines are just around the corner and playoff spots are on the line.
It’s the equivalent of The Fantasy Football Witching Hour—where wins become losses and losses become wins.
Here’s everything you need to know this am so you can be on the “wins” side of that coin …
The biggest question mark this week surrounds Puka Nacua, who popped up on the injury report with a knee injury. He’s expected to play, but reports and quotes from Sean McVay have been cryptic. Still, as we learned on TNF two weeks ago, if he’s active you can’t sit him.
Tony Pollard is a game-time decision after not practicing all week, but there is “some optimism” that he goes. Tyjae Spears is already ruled out, so stashing Julius Chestnut is not a bad idea. He could be the last man standing.
In that same game, Mason Rudolph is expected to get another start with Will Levis not ready. That’s great news for Calvin Ridley.
Brian Robinson Jr. is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury, but is expected to play. Keep Austin Ekeler on speed dial, just in case.
Jordan Love is good to go today. People are afraid of this game because of rain, but it would be a mistake to fade it. The game still has a 47.5-point total—the fourth-highest on the day.
The Jags will have Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne, and Tank Bigsby available today, but Gabe Davis is a long shot. Evan Engram is a smash start in PPR leagues.
Two deep league RB situations to monitor: Zeke will be inactive today vs. the Falcons. Dalvin Cook should be rostered everywhere. Also, make sure to stash Keaton Mitchell. He isn’t active today, but is nearing a return. He was electric in limited action last year.
Read on for my favorite game to attack in DFS this week and why I love Mike Gesicki to go higher than 3.5 receptions on Underdog …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Week 9 DFS Plays: The (DFS) Game of the Week?
- Watercooler: The WR going off tonight
An Elite WR and The “Vomit Stack” of the Week?
by Peter Overzet
When we first started handing out these awards, I mentioned that the committee could eventually grow restless and change up the categories.
And that's exactly what is happening in Week 9.
As the committee reviewed this week's Main Slate, they were stunned to learn that one game rose above the rest. The creme de la creme across the 12 games. The game to deliver those reading this column unfathomable DFS riches (not financial advice, please do your own research).
It's not the game you would expect, either.
It's not a heavyweight divisional tilt between the Dolphins/Bills, Packers/Lions, or Seahawks/Rams. It's not even a potential dome shootout between the Cowboys and Falcons.
Nope.
I won't string you along anymore, although I was tempted to throw it to commercial. We do, in fact, have to pay the bills around here.
Without further adieu, the envelope please…The DFS Game Of The Week is…
Bengals/Raiders.
shocks & gasps are heard across the Dolby Theatre
That's right. I know you might be surprised, but a DFS game Of The Week doesn't play by the same rules as an "NFL Game Of The Week." It doesn't need to be flexed to prime time. It doesn't need narrative-based storylines to rope in viewers.
Rather, all we need are the salary and projection dynamics to line up in a way that allows us to build a lineup that can score a shit-ton of points.
And let me tell you, this game has it all …
🏆 THE ELITE WR WHO BLOWS THE GAME UP
- WR Ja'Marr Chase ($8600)
With no Tee Higgins in Week 8, Chase hauled in the second-most targets he's had all season (11) and scored a TD. His 15.9 fantasy points didn't make any headlines, but he's once again set up to feast. Higgins hasn't practiced all week, which means Chase is once again in line for a double-digit target game.
The other nice angle to this Chase play is that I don't think he's going to be exceedingly popular. My hunch is that most handbuilders will prefer to pay $200 more for CeeDee Lamb ($8800), who is coming off a boxscore chaser's dream line (17-146-2) in Week 8.
🏆 THE VOMIT STACK OF THE WEEK
Oh, you thought you were escaping this week's awards without a vomit stack after that Burrow-Chase-Gesicki pump fake? Nice try. Also, put some respect on the vomit stack. Last week we unearthed the WR1 on the slate in Ladd McConkey with our Chargers vomit stack, so you're welcome.
And for those of you who don't want to attack this spot via the Bengals passing game—a reasonable concern when you consider they could have plenty of success on the ground (more on that in a sec)—there is a vomit stack that has garbage-time production written all over it:
- QB Gardner Minshew ($5,400)
- WR Jakobi Meyers ($5,300)
- TE Brock Bowers ($6,000)
The thesis of this play is very simple. If this game goes according to script (Bengals are 7-point home favorites), then the Raiders are going to be chucking the ball a ton. And when they are chucking it, the ball is going to be going to one of Meyers or Bowers.
Per Dwain's Utilization Report: "In the three games Meyers has played without Davante Adams in the lineup, he has a 7.8 Utilization Score with a 30% target share and 37% air-yards share. It's a small sample, but historically, his comps have finished in the range of WR2 to WR3."
As for Bowers, he cooled off last week with only 5 targets, but that looks to be more of a blip on the radar as opposed to a new trend. In the three previous weeks, he earned target totals of 12, 11, and 13.
At a combined salary of only $16,700 on a full-point PPR site like DraftKings, it's not crazy to think these three could combine for 70+ points, even if the majority of it comes in garbage time.
More DFS Angles From This Game
RELATED CONTENT:
- More NFL DFS strategy for Week 9, including stacks, value plays, and fades.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
📊 Projections for every player on the Sunday slate … great tool to help with lineup decisions.
✍️ Injuries and byes are piling up, but we have you covered. Your start-sit recommendations.
🚁 The WR going for 100+ and 2 TDs tonight. This game is gonna be fun.
🪑 Behind the Anthony Richardson benching. Interesting stats.
💰 Player Props for today’s slate. Freedman has you covered.
