Statement Win for the Ravens and 2 Sleeper RBs to Target
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:
MNF had all of the necessary ingredients for a Disney movie …
Two brothers facing off against each other as NFL coaches.
Two RBs in a revenge game vs. their former team.
All we needed was a huge fourth-quarter comeback capped off by a Hail Mary and we’d be in business.
Unfortunately, the Ravens and injury gods had different plans.
J.K. Dobbins, who was drafted by the Ravens in 2020 and signed with the Chargers this offseason, exited the game early with a knee injury.
Gus Edwards (9 rushes for 11 yards) was stymied throughout the game—although he did sneak in a TD at the end.
And the Chargers simply couldn’t generate enough offense to keep pace with Baltimore.
The only thing that truly stuck to the script was the Ravens enjoying success on the ground.
Lamar Jackson had a sick rushing TD. Derrick Henry stiff-armed his way to 140 rushing yards. Even Justice Hill got in on the action with a 51-yard TD run.
Earlier this year we called for a Chiefs-Bills playoff rematch. I’m going to go ahead and add Ravens-Chargers to that wishlist. We deserve a sequel.
Read on for everything you need to know for Week 13 waivers …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: A rookie RB breakout
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 13 Waiver Wire Adds
- Watercooler: Saquon love
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report from Week 12
Stat of the Day 11/26: Keenan Allen posted a 35% target share in Week 12
Keenan Allen looked like he might be the odd man out of this Bears receiving group at the start of the season. He got injured early on and was held to under 5 receptions in his first 3 games.
That trend is in the past now as the veteran has reestablished himself as one of the elite separators in the game. He’s averaged 9.75 targets over his last four games and earned a whopping 15 targets in his last start, a Bears OT loss to the Vikings.
Via our Utilization Report, Allen now leads all Bears receivers with a 27% target share on the season (DJ Moore is at 23%; Rome Odunze at 20%), after he posted a 35% target share in Week 12. Caleb Williams isn’t choosing to stretch the field much, but in a way this benefits Allen, who is great at getting open fast on shorter routes.
As long as he can stay healthy, Allen looks like he’ll have great week-to-week upside in full PPR leagues. The Bears' defense has regressed hard of late and they have more tough matchups ahead, which should mean more chances for Allen to hit his ceiling in targets.
Quench Your Hard-Earned Thirst With Mike’s Hard Lemonade 🍋
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Week 13 Utilization Report
Can Bucky Irving keep turning a part-time role into RB1 goodness?
Over the last four games, Irving has averaged 16.6 points per game with a 6.9 Utilization Score as he continues to share the backfield with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.
Historically, backs in that Utilization Score range have averaged 13.6 points, suggesting that Irving is due for negative regression. However, the electric rookie—who ranks fifth in yards per carry (5.4) for backs with at least 75 totes—has several factors working in his favor that tell us we shouldn't dismiss the potential for a dynamic finish.
First, while his comp group primarily finished as RB2s, there were a significant number of RB1 outliers. His comps offered midrange RB2 to high-end RB1 upside in 39% of cases.
- RB1 to 6 finish: 9%
- RB7 to 12 finish: 13%
- RB13 to 18 finish: 17%
- RB19 to 24 finish: 35%
- RB25 to 30 finish: 22%
- RB31 to 36 finish: 4%
Second, in Week 12, Irving registered a season-high snap share (55%) in a game with Rachaad White healthy. While White kept the long-down-distance (LDD) work, Irving took over the two-minute offense (100%), which is much more valuable in fantasy. If that trend sticks, Irving's target volume will receive a boost.
Finally, the Buccaneers' schedule is chock-full with favorable matchups the rest of the way. Below is the fantasy boost provided to the RB position by Tampa Bay's remaining opponents.
- Week 13: Panthers, 8.9 (1st)
- Week 14: Raiders, 3.6 (8th)
- Week 15: Chargers, -3.3 (29th)
- Week 16: Cowboys, 3.3 (11th)
- Week 17: Panthers, 8.9 (1st)
The Bucs should be favored in four of these games. Irving has only one tough matchup and gets a monster layup in Week 17, when most fantasy football championships are decided.
Irving UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status and offers high-end RB1 upside for the stretch run.
Has Courtland Sutton morphed into an ALPHA WR1?
Only Ja'Marr Chase has a higher Utilization Score (9.8) than Sutton (9.7) over the last five weeks. Over that span, Sutton has averaged 21.2 fantasy points, delivering WR11, WR6, WR5, WR23, and WR2 finishes as the clear-cut No. 1 for Bo Nix.
Using the Utilization Comparison Tool, we can see that Sutton has dominated targets (29%), air yards (45%), and endzone targets (36%).
Sutton is on pace to record a career-high target share (25%). In five healthy seasons, Sutton has posted target shares of 13%, 23%, 18%, 19%, and 17%.
Notably, the 23% share was in his second season in 2019 before the arrival of Jerry Jeudy via the first round of the 2020 NFL draft. The Broncos traded Jeudy to the Browns ahead of the 2024 season. So, Sutton is sitting at a 24% target share in his last two campaigns without Jeudy.
The sustainability of a 9.7 Utilization Score isn't realistic, but given Nix's evolution, his 7.6 mark for the season is more likely the floor. I used an asymmetrical comp group versus Sutton's 7.6 score (7.2 to 8.2) to account for the rookie QB's improvement.
- Average points: 15.2 per game
- WR1 to 12 finish: 33%
- WR13 to 24 finish: 48%
- WR25 to 36 finish: 18%
- WR37 to 48 finish: 2%
Over the last four years, 57% of Sutton's comps posted a midrange WR2 finish or better.
Sutton UPGRADES to midrange WR2 status and offers WR1 upside the rest of the way.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
📰 Who is a Top-5 TE? Ian, Chris, and Charch analyze the 11 biggest headlines from Week 12.
🦃 After the Turkey Day feast, keep track of the action with the Thanksgiving Props Sheet.
🏆️ Who thinks Barkley is the best player in the world? High praise from another GAM.
❓You survived the Byepocalypse, but got hit with injuries. The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool has options.
📣 More Bucky Irving ROS hype on our SiriusXM show, and we’re here for it.
😆 13 minutes of Jameis mic’d up. Thank me later.
Week 13 Waiver Wire Pickups
Jeremy McNichols, RB, Commanders (1% rostered)
The hits just keep on coming and this week we saw both Commanders running backs go down. It's unclear whether Brian Robinson Jr. or Austin Ekeler will be ready to go by Sunday—Robinson suffered an ankle injury and was questionable to return but never came back in the game and Ekeler suffered a concussion. So the next man up in this offense is Jeremy McNichols.
I think it's also important to note that the team released running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. on Saturday, so they will probably be bringing him back. McNichols is the back to target, but if you're in a deeper league you can take a flier on Rodriguez as well.
Ameer Abdullah, RB, Raiders (25% rostered)
The Raiders were without both of their running backs on Sunday against the Broncos, but if you started Ameer Abdullah on the fly then you were happy with the results. With Alexander Mattison and Zamir White out, he was able to notch 17.5 fantasy points off 8 carries for 28 yards and 5 catches for 37 yards and a touchdown.
This is another quick turnaround, as the Raiders face the Chiefs on Friday for Week 13. If Mattison and White can't go again then we should expect the same role for Abdullah. Of course, we will have to temper our expectations because the Chiefs are a tough matchup, but we absolutely love a 89% snap share and 8.5 Utilization Score off the waiver wire.
Week 12 Sheesh Report: Anthony Richardson, It’s Not All Your Fault
by Ian Hartitz
Anthony Richardson didn't have as bad of a Sunday as you think
The Colts suffered a rough 24-6 defeat at the hands of the Lions on Sunday, leading many to once again put most of the blame at the feet—er arm—of QB Anthony Richardson.
And maybe it was his fault? I mean, Richardson did complete just 11 of 28 passes (39.3%) with zero scores on the afternoon. Can a boxscore REALLY lie that much?
Answer: Yes.
While not all of those aforementioned penalties were complete phonies, I would confidently use the phrase ticky tack to at least describe Richardson's rather awesome 4th-down conversion to Josh Downs. Throw in the dropped TD by Kylen Granson and failure by Ashton Dulin to get his second foot down inbounds on a potential 40-plus-yard gain down the sideline, and it's easy to envision Richardson's final stat line including an additional 70-plus yards and a score.
That said: Richardson wasn't perfect. You can judge all his incompletions for yourself if you wish (the second miss in the attached video could have been a LONG house call for Mr. Alec Pierce).
Still, as a society, we need to be better than boxscore scouting completion percentages as the whole story: Richardson was PFF's fifth-highest graded passer of Week 12 after all.
This realization won't make Richardson's fantasy managers feel much better about his Week 12 dud, but he wasn't the only one with some yards left on the field.
The Butterfingers Police: Dropped touchdowns
While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one.
Like Packers WR Christian Watson, who suffered one of the worst drops you'll ever see on what coulda, shoulda, woulda been a 49-yard TD.
In addition to Watson, I'm inclined to put some blame on the likes of Panthers TE Tommy Tremble (11), Colts TE AnDrew Ogletree (11), and Browns TE David Njoku (2) for costing their respective squads 6 points. Additionally, Browns TE Jordan Akins looked to have enough open field to potentially rumble in from 38 yards out, but alas: Dropped.
There was also Rams WR Puka Nacua, who did indeed drop a potential 34-yard TD, but managed to draw an (iffy) DPI penalty to make it a moot point for the Rams, albeit not fantasy manager.
Sheeshy stuff indeed—almost as bad as when a missed TD was more so the QB's fault.
Dropped TDs, nullified scores, and more sheeshy moments from Week 12
